2013 WPAC Season

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah Yutu was a total waste of time to be honest. And I agree I think mid September onwards will see so significant activity. GFS is sniff out a major in the extremely long range.

In terms of numbers, we're currently behind the record dead season of 2010 in terms of typhoon numbers.

[Meow]

2013 is not very inactive; it is low-quality.

[mrbagyo]

2013 named TS so far(JMA): 17
average: 14.4

just 2 official typhoon(both cat 4) as of september 3: Soulik and Utor

we already beat the 2010 season( 2010 got its 3rd on august 30th)

[dexterlabio]

It's often that a period of hyperactivity gets succeeded by a period of little activity. Last year was hell of a season, and maybe this year is some sort of a break.

[euro6208]

quiet for the next 2 weeks due to the dry phrase of the MJO...

[Typhoon Hunter]

It's often that a period of hyperactivity gets succeeded by a period of little activity. Last year was hell of a season, and maybe this year is some sort of a break.

Maybe, but last year wasn't even remotely hyperactive. ACE was bang on average at 300 (average Wpac season = 302 per Ryan Maue's page) and named storms were 25 which is about 1 below average. I think we've forgotten what an above average season is like in the Wpac, the last one in terms of named storms was way back in 2004!

Wpac, Epac and Atl are all hugely down on ACE and the Wpac continues to suffer. Having said that all seasons since 2005 when I started tracking typhoons have had real monster landfalling storms despite being mostly below average so I can't quite imagine what a hyperactive "2005 in the Atlantic" type of season out here would look like. We may have to wait a few years to see that!

[mrbagyo]

Maybe WPAC is just taking a power nap...
GFS is now showing a monster in the long range...

GFS 06z run
300hrs
360hrs over Okinawa again???
384hrs

[euro6208]

no longer showing a monster but shows a major uptick in activity later this month...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well 18Z backed off in intensity but 12z showed a major hit on Japan. General trend is for s significant system, wouldn't be surprised to see 00z back with a strong typhoon.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Models hinting at a potentially complicated set up with a disturbance ahead of the Cpac import also forming. 00z GFS, CMC and NAVGEM all showing this possibility and they all agree on a powerful typhoon(s) over the next 10 days - 2 weeks.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Models hinting at a potentially complicated set up with a disturbance ahead of the Cpac import also forming. 00z GFS, CMC and NAVGEM all showing this possibility and they all agree on a powerful typhoon(s) over the next 10 days - 2 weeks.

Twin super typhoons at 278 hrs. Because of this, the ACE will increase significantly.

[galaxy401]

That is still in la la land. It does seem slightly more reasonable being in the WPAC but even this basin can't escape the weirdness of this year. I bet the models will drop this within a week frame.

[dexterlabio]

Well I think the models will drop the "other typhoon", that doesn't seem likely to me, and fujiwara is too complicated for global models to forecast and analyze...

Yeah still very long range...but there were instances this year where GFS nailed TC genesis even at long range (at least in the WPAC). Last month GFS showed a strong typhoon at 384 hrs, then days later, Supertyphoon Utor appeared.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well I think the models will drop the "other typhoon", that doesn't seem likely to me, and fujiwara is too complicated for global models to forecast and analyze...

Yeah still very long range...but there were instances this year where GFS nailed TC genesis even at long range (at least in the WPAC). Last month GFS showed a strong typhoon at 384 hrs, then days later, Supertyphoon Utor appeared.

Agree with Dexter regarding the Fujiwara / dancing typhoons situation being very uncertain and unlikely howver given that GFS, CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET all forecast the Cpac import to develop my money's on that storm likely being the dominant player. I think whatever forms will be a significant ACE contributor, the models are exceptionally consistent on that right now!

[dexterlabio]

12z GFS has a lot in store for WPAC especially at long range. I think it's possible, majority of the MJO forecasts shows a strong signal entering WPAC by the end of this month/first week of October, favoring TC genesis. The second half of September is something to watch out for....a lot of intense and menacing typhoons had formed within that period in the past seasons..

[euro6208]

18Z GFS showing twin typhoons south of japan...interesting...

[Typhoon Hunter]

BREAKING NEWS (irony): ECMWF show a developing tropical cyclone east of Taiwan in 10 days. I think this is only the 3rd time this year it's suggested genesis of a TC

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wpac will be going gangbusters soon per latest model runs. Consensus there for a potentially big hit on Japan from 93W and then another storm forming in its wake.

[euro6208]

Wpac will be going gangbusters soon per latest model runs. Consensus there for a potentially big hit on Japan from 93W and then another storm forming in its wake.

indeed...twin typhoons developing in the same vicinity near guam strengthening as one heads for okinawa/taiwan and the other towards japan...interesting days ahead!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like 95W will win the battle, I thought it would be the Cpac import a few days ago. I think this could really rack up some ACE units for the basin over the next 7 days!