ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

BT has this moving at 270... will need to turn to the north some to move over the BOC

[djmikey]

I think Tx was jinxed. So much for the perfect scenario of a rain maker easing our extreme drought across Texas. I really feel this is our last oppurtunity of something tropical easing drought situations across Texas.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

I think 70% is about 30% too low. And if it stays over the BoC/SW Gulf as long as GFS is indicating not only will it almost certainly be a hurricane, but possibly a major hurricane.

You go that far about being a major?

If it becomes a TS and has 2-3 days over water, then there may not be much to prevent continued strengthening. Now that wouldn't be what I would put out as a FORECAST to our clients, but it's a possibility.

[caneman]

This has always been a likely Mexico storm, GFS not withstanding[/quote]

Thanks Alyono. Glad a Met said it. Little too much hype going on here. Looks like the models burying it in Mexico thus far look to be right looking at Satellite this morning.[/quote]

what hype? I think last nights model runs were a fun time on the board. Its not all informational at 1am in the morning.... [/quote]

I can see a few Texans were having some fun last night Back to reality now

[tailgater]

I know that it will likely be drawing in moisture from the GOM, NW Carb. and E Pac, but dry air could be a bit of an issue IMHO.

[Sanibel]

That center burst started last night at 1:30am. It has a bit more of a head start than Fernand so theoretically it should top out higher if it tracks similarly.

[TexWx]

This may not even make it to the BOC.

[Tireman4]

Is this all not just speculation at this time? I mean ( and I have no idea about anything) should the models need a definite center of circulation from which to work from? Would not that be from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft or letting it better organized? Goodness knows I would not want this, but the rain for Central Texas would be nice. Just my four cents.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 70% is about 30% too low. And if it stays over the BoC/SW Gulf as long as GFS is indicating not only will it almost certainly be a hurricane, but possibly a major hurricane.

If it becomes a major hurricane, that could be a problem.

[Tireman4]

I think 70% is about 30% too low. And if it stays over the BoC/SW Gulf as long as GFS is indicating not only will it almost certainly be a hurricane, but possibly a major hurricane.

You go that far about being a major?

If it becomes a TS and has 2-3 days over water, then there may not be much to prevent continued strengthening. Now that wouldn't be what I would put out as a FORECAST to our clients, but it's a possibility.

Wxman 57, I respect your opinion a ton. Here is one time, I sure hope that the GFS is wrong

[ConvergenceZone]

very depressed that Texas may miss out on this rain
I agree that the Mexico odds seem to be increasing by the hour, especially since it's not gaining altitude. While I think most of us knew it would go to Mexico, we were hoping that it would go more to Northern Mexico so that Texas would benefit from the rains, but now it seems like southern Mexico is looking more likely...

[Portastorm]

very depressed that Texas may miss out on this rain
I agree that the Mexico odds seem to be increasing by the hour, especially since it's not gaining altitude. While I think most of us knew it would go to Mexico, we were hoping that it would go more to Northern Mexico so that Texas would benefit from the rains, but now it seems like southern Mexico is looking more likely...

That has been our luck since the drought began years ago. Dare I say we're used to it?!

The current movement and latest models certainly don't leave a lot of room for hope. Another 24 hours of this and we can pretty much forget about it. But as Alyono has pointed out, this has the potential to provide some devastating rains to an area of Mexico which has already seen a lot of rain this summer.

[wxman57]

Is this all not just speculation at this time? I mean ( and I have no idea about anything) should the models need a definite center of circulation from which to work from? Would not that be from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft or letting it better organized? Goodness knows I would not want this, but the rain for Central Texas would be nice. Just my four cents.

In this case, it's not necessary for a center to form before the models get a good handle on movement. What will determine where this storm will go is dependent on the projected ridge placement to its north over TX/LA. If that ridge breaks down and/or slips east, then TX could be impacted - regardless of where or when the storm develops. Steering currents at all levels would be from east to west, so even the BAM models should handle this storm well.

Unfortunately (as far as any TX rain), both the Euro and GFS indicate that the ridge over Texas will hold strong through the middle of next week. They're in good agreement on that. And if that's the case, we won't get much rain out of the storm in TX, certainly not on the mid to upper coast.

[HurriGuy]

is it just the way the convection is building up or is this thing scraping along the coast of the Yucatan right now?

[Portastorm]

is it just the way the convection is building up or is this thing scraping along the coast of the Yucatan right now?

To this untrained eye, I see a general west-northwest movement per visible here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-short.html

[wxman57]

is it just the way the convection is building up or is this thing scraping along the coast of the Yucatan right now?

To this untrained eye, I see a general west-northwest movement per visible here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-short.html

Hard to tell. I don't think the ridge over Texas will be so strong as to not let it gain any latitude over the next day or two, allowing it to emerge into the BoC tomorrow. Not looking good for significant rain here in TX.

[Hammy]

Not the use the most cliche line now, but this would probably be a depression (if not storm) at this point if not for land.

[cycloneye]

Hi Portastorm. Here are the past 24 hour positions of the best track and it has rided thru the 18N latitude. If it continues moving west at 270 degress it would never reach water. That is why is important to see how the next 12 hours of movement will be to see if it gets into the water or stays overland.


AL, 93, 2013091012, , BEST, 0, 180N, 857W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2013091018, , BEST, 0, 180N, 864W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 180N, 871W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 180N, 880W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2013091112, , BEST, 0, 180N, 888W, 25, 1008, DB, 34,

[Ptarmigan]

Hard to tell. I don't think the ridge over Texas will be so strong as to not let it gain any latitude over the next day or two, allowing it to emerge into the BoC tomorrow. Not looking good for significant rain here in TX.

Now, if there is a way to get rid of that annoying ridge.

[TexWx]

12Z GFS buries this as a weak TS in the Bay of Campeche

I'd definitely have to agree with this run.