Texas Fall 2013

[JDawg512]

I sure hope we get some nice rain amounts this weekend. Im hopeful but guarded. The front is now expected to wash out on Sunday so that is a bummer. Hopefully we will get a nice strong front the second week of October.

[gboudx]

Looking at HPC precip estimates, looks like it's come down for this rain event. Whereas most of the DFW area was looking at 2"+, it's now down to about 1.5". This is still good rainfall, but let's hope the trend is not further downward.

[Ntxw]

Looking at HPC precip estimates, looks like it's come down for this rain event. Whereas most of the DFW area was looking at 2"+, it's now down to about 1.5". This is still good rainfall, but let's hope the trend is not further downward.

Certainly has, they have been following the American models which have gone back and forth between 0.50 inch to 2+. The Euro has been very consistent showing 1-1.5 inches all week.

[Portastorm]

Looking at HPC precip estimates, looks like it's come down for this rain event. Whereas most of the DFW area was looking at 2"+, it's now down to about 1.5". This is still good rainfall, but let's hope the trend is not further downward.

Certainly has, they have been following the American models which have gone back and forth between 0.50 inch to 2+. The Euro has been very consistent showing 1-1.5 inches all week.

I haven't had time to look closely at the QPF values from the models like you guys have ... but what I do notice is a much more humid, buoyant atmosphere we have today in Austin. Streamer showers have developed in the southern I-35 corridor and are moving north and this was not forecasted this morning. Furthermore the aviation forecaster on duty at EWX notates higher PWATs and more moisture incoming from the Pacific than the models progged. This could bode well for those of us in south central Texas and weekend rainfall amounts.

[Rgv20]

14zHRRR showing a nice complex of Thunderstorms just west of my area later this evening into tonight.

[vbhoutex]

14zHRRR showing a nice complex of Thunderstorms just west of my area later this evening into tonight.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Texas%20Summer%202013/cref_t5sfc_f15_zps1797b5f9.png

When you are through with that, please send it NE to Houston. Even though we are having showers/storms today we could still use some more.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Well....that was disappointing Waited all week for a little 15 minute shower for what was supposed to be a 24-36 hour rain event with 2" totals minimal. I got .3 inches out of that....not even enough to wet the bar ditches. I didn't think this was supposed to be a fast moving linear event. As you can see, the line widens substantially just to the north of us (along 380 and north) which actually occurs quite often with linear systems like these. Consequently, they get more rain than we do.



Also, when did they decide to change our rainfall event to a 'Southeast-of-Dallas' event? The forecasts I saw earlier in the week had a 2" bullseye right over the DFW area. Per NOAA forecast discussion:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A
SHERMAN...TO DALLAS...TO HAMILTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST TO A EMORY...TO HILLSBORO...TO LAMPASAS LINE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...PEA HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS OR STREET FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Unfortunately, its looks like the 'Southeast' thing I posted above was right: Its already getting very light to our west...almost sunny. The patch of rain on the radar out west looks like its shrinking away.
When you look at the following radar gif, the whole line of storms appears to lift up to the north and then accelerate to the right in the last few frames. You can see the gap in the storms that went right over our area ( Lucas ) in the frames as the whole line of storms lifted to the north. The line gets much thicker when the line shifts off to the east. You can also see the dry slot that forms right over I-75 that goes right through Plano. The flow doesn't seem natural in these images.

Also, if you look at Carrollton, you can see how the main line of storms dissapates to their west, only to reform to the east of them over Garland shorting them on rainfall: This is a strange phenomenon I've noticed becoming more common over our area, especially in the summer months with Northwest-Flow events. I was out jogging when this was going on and noticed strange gaps of blue sky when there should have been a solid squall line with a solid roll cloud.

[Ntxw]

It's been a little disappointing here for me too. Only 0.45 inches that fell for about 45 minutes earlier. Unless more decides to build behind the front I find it diffcult to see 1+.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Is it incorrect perception, or is my thinking that the atmosphere is getting harder and harder to 'force' these days correct? Most of the forcing for rain today occurred right along the front and not in front or behind it. We used to get lots of convective type storms in the warm-sector air ahead of dynamic short wave troughs like these when PW values were in the 2"+ range back in the 'good ole days', as well as stratiform rain behind the front many times. These showers were always 'icing on the cake' and added considerably to rainfall totals before and after the main event would come through: Kinda like when they shoot off a few fireworks to test before the real show starts.

[weatherdude1108]

Had several rounds of heavy rain. 1.2 inches today so far at the Weatherdude Center!

[JDawg512]

We got two good rounds yesterday and an other storm just came through a little bit ago.

[gboudx]

0.90" here in NW Rockwall.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Is that it for Lake Travis lake level rises?.....that ain't much! Its got a loooong way to go, and not much hurricane season left to get there.

[weatherdude1108]

3.0 inches from this event at the Weatherdude Center. Add 1.2 inches from last week, and it's 4.2 inches within last 10 days. And it's 65 degrees at 9am. Very nice!

[horselattitudesfarm]

I'm At 2.3 inches for the month of Sept. Add that to the .37 inches for Aug. ,1.66 for July, and 2.67 for June Gives us 7 inches for 4 months. We've had 23.6 inches for the whole year so far. As you can see from the latest KBDI, our place in Collin County (circle up north) is still doing very poorly, however, Horselattitudes farm in Gonzales Co. (little circle down south) is actually in the 0-200 category (something I haven't seen in a long long time. Its rare indeed to have our farm wetter than our place in Collin Co.

[ndale]

I knew we had heavy rain last night but did not know how heavy until I checked the guage this morning, 3.5 inches.


Edited once for spelling.

[aggiecutter]

I had just a little under 4" of rain in my rain gauge this morning. That brings my 10 day total to a little over a foot of rain.

[Rgv20]

14zHRRR showing a nice complex of Thunderstorms just west of my area later this evening into tonight.

[url=http://s61.photobucket.com/user/cantu5977/media/Texas%20Summer%202013/cref_t5sfc_f15_zps1797b5f9.png.html][img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Texas%20Summer%202013/cref_t5sfc_f15_zps1797b5f9.png]

I know I'm quoting myself but I just was to say kudos to the HRRR for a good forecast! Last night we had a lot of Thunder and Lightning even the power went out for about 3 hours with 1.21 inches of Rain.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I had just a little under 4" of rain in my rain gauge this morning. That brings my 10 day total to a little over a foot of rain.

Wow! I need to move up there!