Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[blp]

Yes. Camille formed in Mid August

Camille is great example though of ideal conditions during an El Nino in an area close to land. It is the example worst case scenario for this upcoming year and what scares me. These pockets of ideal conditions show up the difference is that last several ENSO's we had it away from land.

[Hurricaneman]

Yes. Camille formed in Mid August

Camille is great example though of ideal conditions during an El Nino in an area close to land. It is the example worst case scenario for this upcoming year and what scares me. These pockets of ideal conditions show up the difference is that last several ENSO's we had it away from land.

2004 is another good example of this as in the season didn't really start until August and pretty much ended by October 10th due to shear from the El Nino but we had a brush from Hurricane Alex in Early August and Florida took a shellacking from 3 major hurricanes and Hurricane Frances so while El Nino conditions may be present it's essential to look at seasons like 2004 and 1969 to see what can happen even in El Nino years.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

Yes. Camille formed in Mid August

Camille is great example though of ideal conditions during an El Nino in an area close to land. It is the example worst case scenario for this upcoming year and what scares me. These pockets of ideal conditions show up the difference is that last several ENSO's we had it away from land.

2004 is another good example of this as in the season didn't really start until August and pretty much ended by October 10th due to shear from the El Nino but we had a brush from Hurricane Alex in Early August and Florida took a shellacking from 3 major hurricanes and Hurricane Frances so while El Nino conditions may be present it's essential to look at seasons like 2004 and 1969 to see what can happen even in El Nino years.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

you make a good point, but el nino is not the only factor. this is the stability for 2004

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... ns2004.gif

as you can see it was far more unstable than it is now or has been the last several years. we also have the euro predicting super high pressures in the deep tropics. as far as i can see now, this season has little in common with 2004.

[ROCK]

as much as I hug the EURO, its long range forecasts are not very accurate even in March. It is subject to wild swings as I have seen in the last few years.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: as much as I hug the EURO, its long range forecasts are not very accurate even in March. It is subject to wild swings as I have seen in the last few years.

Last year, the Euro was forecasting near normal activity in the Atlantic Basin, which is a good bit lower than all the expert seasonal forecasts. It also indicated a little drier than normal (rainfall-wise) across the tropics for the 2013 season. The Euro incorrectly forecast warm-neutral conditions in the Pacific, though.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

In close development this year means low storm number, but high percentage of them may impact US. East coast continues high risk rel to ave
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

Will be updatingclients on hurricane forecast soon,make public next week. Idea of low overall ace,but bang for buck impact on US still holds

[cycloneye]

Impact Weather releases their 2014 forecast. See it at the first post.

Note=Did TWC released a forecast? I cant find it on their site.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Impact Weather releases their 2014 forecast. See it at the first post.

Note=Did TWC released a forecast? I cant find it on their site.

Yes.

Link

[ninel conde]

here is Jb's hurricane forecast

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-sum ... ch-29-2014

8-10 storms
3-5 canes
1-2 majors

75-90% of normal ace

3-6 storms close to east coast
2-4 hurricanes
1-2 majors.

he mentions 1938, 44, 54,55,60 as similar seasons.

[wxman57]

JB's forecast sounds reasonable. Euro says activity may concentrate along East U.S. Coast as well.

[tolakram]

Why is he using 1960, 1976, and 1985 among other non el-nino years?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

None of his analogs are even El Nino years.

EDIT: what said.

[ninel conde]

54/55 were la ninas. perhaps he gives a more in depth explanation on his pay site.

[TheStormExpert]

Every year Joe Bastardi seems to have a prediction that the East Coast especially the Northeast has a better than average chance of getting slammed by a major storm. Within the past three years we have already seen storms hit the Northeast (both Irene, and Sandy). I feel he puts way too much attention towards the northeast each season. Down here in S. FL were far more likely to get hit by a major storm as opposed to the Northeast.

[wxman57]

Why is he using 1960, 1976, and 1985 among other non el-nino years?

I watched the video and didn't get the idea that he considered them good analog years. They were just years with less activity than normal but featured significant hits. That's the point he was trying to make - even though there may be fewer storms than in recent years, there may be a fair risk of a U.S. landfall as storms may develop closer to land. As I posted earlier in the thread, the Euro seasonal forecast indicates above-normal activity along the East U.S. Coast with less-than-normal activity in the MDR.

[Ptarmigan]

Why is he using 1960, 1976, and 1985 among other non el-nino years?

1976 went from La Nina to El Nino. It was a weak El Nino.

[tolakram]

Why is he using 1960, 1976, and 1985 among other non el-nino years?

1976 went from La Nina to El Nino. It was a weak El Nino.

According to this list: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm it's neutral. Is +- .5 or 1 considered the threshold?

I think wxman57 explained what JB was describing in his video, not analogs but seasons with a lot of east coast activity and not a lot of activity in the deep tropics.

[cycloneye]

+0.5C is the threshold of El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Here is a important graphic about the hurricane frequency that has turned down. Dr Ryan Maue sums it up good.

Ryan Maue
‏@RyanMaue Global hurricane frequency remains near 200 for a 5-year sum -- lowest since late 1970s.

[OuterBanker]

Watched both Joe B and Levis videos. Quite similar with a slow season but in close development. Of course Joe is far more dramatic. But that's Joe. I feel this may be one of those seasons where the numbers are down but impacts are up. My biggest fear will be that once all the predicted numbers are down by all the experts the media will ignore the season. Numbers have always been more important to the media than potential impact. Hype vs reality doesn't exist in the media. Hype always wins.