ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[Alyono]

With King Euro backing away with development of this TW is the reason why the NHC is keeping it with such a low chance.

using the EC for genesis is as dumb as using the CMC. One is on one extreme while the other is on the other

[Alyono]

look well west of the area south of the DR.

[srainhoutx]

With King Euro backing away with development of this TW is the reason why the NHC is keeping it with such a low chance.

Actually it has far more to do with the shear currently over the Central Caribbean and a TUTT to the N of the Greater Antilles than an operational computer model. There is support from the ensembles which is a bit better to look to for a disturbance that has yet to develop. Pressures in the Western Caribbean Sea have been slowly falling the past 24 or so hours as well.

[latitude_20]

With King Euro backing away with development of this TW is the reason why the NHC is keeping it with such a low chance.

using the EC for genesis is as dumb as using the CMC. One is on one extreme while the other is on the other

Thanks for educating us on your vast insight in such a friendly, respectful way.

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak gives T numbers.

29/1145 UTC 16.1N 71.5W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic

[tropicwatch]

Here is the visible satellite centered on those coordinates:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16.1&lon=-71.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10&map=latlon

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Definitely looking interesting this morning. The remnants of 97L are still under moderate to high wind shear courtesy of the upper-level low north of the islands, but upper-level winds should slacken over the coming days as the system enters the West Caribbean. I wouldn't rule out development prior to it crossing the Yucatan, but I do think that the chances of formation are much higher on the other side, in the Bay of Campeche. I'd give it a 30% chance of developing in the Caribbean and a 70% chance in the Bay of Campeche.

[Alyono]

TPW loop is showing the rotation is closer to 75W

[srainhoutx]

Floater is up for this disturbance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[NDG]

With King Euro backing away with development of this TW is the reason why the NHC is keeping it with such a low chance.

using the EC for genesis is as dumb as using the CMC. One is on one extreme while the other is on the other

All I know is that the Euro has performed very well with genesis in the Atlantic this season so far while the GFS has continued to forecast ghost storms one after another one, I guess we can call the Euro lucky in the Atlantic Basin? But I doubt it.

[tropicwatch]

Wander why there is no invest #?

[Sanibel]

Slow forward movement. Indistinct circulation.

[Alyono]

With King Euro backing away with development of this TW is the reason why the NHC is keeping it with such a low chance.

using the EC for genesis is as dumb as using the CMC. One is on one extreme while the other is on the other

All I know is that the Euro has performed very well with genesis in the Atlantic this season so far while the GFS has continued to forecast ghost storms one after another one, I guess we can call the Euro lucky in the Atlantic Basin? But I doubt it.

If you would follow the EC GLOBALLY as I do, you would know that it has developed like 1 out of every 10 TCs. It is the opposite extreme as the CMC

[NDG]

There might be a weak mid level vorticity but at the surface there is nothing close to any signs of circulation.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

With King Euro backing away with development of this TW is the reason why the NHC is keeping it with such a low chance.

using the EC for genesis is as dumb as using the CMC. One is on one extreme while the other is on the other

All I know is that the Euro has performed very well with genesis in the Atlantic this season so far while the GFS has continued to forecast ghost storms one after another one, I guess we can call the Euro lucky in the Atlantic Basin? But I doubt it.

The ECMWF hasn't performed well, it just appears so because it's been quiet. The ECMWF has two main biases--it struggles to predict tropical cyclogenesis south of 25N, and on the opposite end of the spectrum, it's sometimes over-dramatic with forecast lows north of 25N. It does well once a system is developed.

The ECMWF missed numerous tropical cyclones across all basins last year, including a 130kt super typhoon in the West Pacific. No bueno.

[NDG]

using the EC for genesis is as dumb as using the CMC. One is on one extreme while the other is on the other

All I know is that the Euro has performed very well with genesis in the Atlantic this season so far while the GFS has continued to forecast ghost storms one after another one, I guess we can call the Euro lucky in the Atlantic Basin? But I doubt it.

If you would follow the EC GLOBALLY as I do, you would know that it has developed like 1 out of every 10 TCs. It is the opposite extreme as the CMC

But you have to admit that it has been right all along in the Atlantic, for whatever the reason is, even if it has been "lucky".

[Alyono]

no development in the deep tropics. Of course the EC will be correct. It's weakness is in the deep tropics.

It has been the latest at developing Bertha and Cristobal, however

[cycloneye]

TXNT28 KNES 291223
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 29/1145Z

C. 16.1N

D. 71.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GOOD CONVERGENCE ON SELY FLOW HAS LEAD TO LARGE PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE AREA THAT HAS CURVATURE MEASURING .3 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 1.0.
CSC PSBL LLC CAN BE SEEN NW OF THE CONVECTION TO WARRANT INITAL
CLASSIFICATION. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS 1.0 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[bamajammer4eva]

If you would follow the EC GLOBALLY as I do, you would know that it has developed like 1 out of every 10 TCs. It is the opposite extreme as the CMC

Well when it does develop a TC, does it not usually happen? I would think if the ensembles mean shows it then there is a good chance of it verifying since it doesn't pick up new systems well.

[Nimbus]

I looked for this as an invest in active storms yesterday but there was nothing.
The center of apparent rotation is quite far north so when they initialize the models..