ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[LaBreeze]

Isn't this one likely to go the way of the others this season? If not, please explain.
Thank you....

I'm thinking like sunnyday - is this expected to be an East Coast scare or a fish?

[Hammy]

Isn't this one likely to go the way of the others this season? If not, please explain.
Thank you....

I'm thinking like sunnyday - is this expected to be an East Coast scare or a fish?

I'd lean towards out to sea myself--after Cristobal, I'm not putting any stock in the long-range models that show a westward track.

edit:


my take based on cloud motion of where the (likely somewhat elongated) center is at and apparent wind flow (at least at cloud level)

[floridasun78]

i see shear near islands north of leedwards

[ozonepete]

Looks awfully good as a lot of you have said. My personal guess is that conditions are marginal but there is, as Nimbus said, an upper level anticyclone over it which is helping outflow enough to beat the marginal dry air and shear. Also, unless I'm mistaken, the shear forecasts from GFS and ECMWF show the shear dropping over the next couple of days. I love CIMSS but don't always buy their shear tendency chart. as far as dry air goes, it appears that the SAL and dry air are mitigating and there's some very high RH air getting pulled in from the southeast. Regardless, this certainly looks like a TD as Alyono and some others of you have said. Finally, if you look at the water vapor loop you will see this is not going to recurve for the next few days. It's just adjusting its center north and south as it consolidates.

Just goes to show us that the models and we forecasters still don't know a lot about how intensity works.

[ozonepete]

Isn't this one likely to go the way of the others this season? If not, please explain.
Thank you....

I'm thinking like sunnyday - is this expected to be an East Coast scare or a fish?

Way way way too early to know.

[gatorcane]

Latest loop where the banding out nice outflow is evident. I think there may be some kind of center on the SE side of the blob where the deep convection has been maintaining. Hammy I think it is more NW of where your image is showing.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks great convectively speaking, but I see no evidence of a closed wind circulation.

[Hammy]

Looks great convectively speaking, but I see no evidence of a closed wind circulation.

It's certainly closed (albeit weak to the south) at cloud level; I'd give it 50/50 chance that it's closed at the surface. ASCAT will give a better idea in a few hours (if it doesn't miss it)

[ozonepete]

Looks great convectively speaking, but I see no evidence of a closed wind circulation.

It's certainly closed (albeit weak to the south) at cloud level; I'd give it 50/50 chance that it's closed at the surface. ASCAT will give a better idea in a few hours (if it doesn't miss it)

There's no way to tell if there's a closed circulation under that CDO without an ASCAT pass or possibly a 37GHz microwave which shows lower level circulation. And there was a 37GHz pass not long ago at 2141 UTC. I'm showing it here with a circle around where the center looks to be forming. I'm showing it again without the circle so you can see what we're looking at. From that microwave sat it appears to be closed off except for the southeast portion. The ASCAT pass will be very interesting and will tell us a lot.

[Hammy]

Convection on the decline, is it D-min at the moment or is it a sign it's falling victim to the sinking air?

[Siker]

Convection on the decline, is it D-min at the moment or is it a sign it's falling victim to the sinking air?

Well, D-min did just pass recently, but it could also be a sign of a decline.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity has changed little in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands. This system is moving into an unfavorable environment
during the next several days, and development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[ozonepete]

Convection on the decline, is it D-min at the moment or is it a sign it's falling victim to the sinking air?

Hi Hammy. Where do you see convection declining? I don't see that at all. Do you have images that show that?

[Nimbus]

If the center of circulation was near those hot towers you saw at sunset then maybe there will still be some CDO tomorrow morning.

I've got to go down and check on the environment around the next wave to see if the the Sahara dust layer is going to shear into it from the north..

[Hammy]

Convection on the decline, is it D-min at the moment or is it a sign it's falling victim to the sinking air?

Hi Hammy. Where do you see convection declining? I don't see that at all. Do you have images that show that?

RAMMB floater http://tinyurl.com/qbhm7da
And presumably why it was kept at 10%.

[ozonepete]

If the center of circulation was near those hot towers you saw at sunset then maybe there will still be some CDO tomorrow morning.

I've got to go down and check on the environment around the next wave to see if the the Sahara dust layer is going to shear into it from the north..

Well D-MAX is coming so we will see. Don't forget to post anything about the next wave in a new thread.

[ozonepete]

Convection on the decline, is it D-min at the moment or is it a sign it's falling victim to the sinking air?

Hi Hammy. Where do you see convection declining? I don't see that at all. Do you have images that show that?

RAMMB floater http://tinyurl.com/qbhm7da
And presumably why it was kept at 10%.

That's more a decrease in intensity of convection. Coverage hasn't changed much. Overall it's not yet significant. Although it is at D-MIN so that would explain those changes. Also that wouldn't be why they kept it at 10%. They are purely using the models to keep it there. Although once again I would caution that the models are still terrible at strength forecasting because they are very poor at predicting how far dry air gets entrained into a TC circulation and even worse at forecasting shear ahead of these systems.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Glorified wave.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014090700, , BEST, 0, 155N, 325W, 25, 1010, DB

[ozonepete]

Glorified wave.

Does not look like a wave at all and that ASCAT pass showed nothing definitive at all. We have to wait for better data.