EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1047
Age: 25
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

#141 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:20 pm

Neat looking core structure with Odile. Eye is clearing out.
Image
0 likes   
ImageImageImage
Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#142 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:53 pm

Fresh microwave pass shows very impressive core structure, a big difference from just few hours ago

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145294
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#143 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 106.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON MONDAY.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#144 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:02 pm

Is any Recon planned for Odile?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145294
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#145 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is any Recon planned for Odile?


It will be a very interesting mission on Sunday.

HURRICANE ODILE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0115E ODILE
C. 14/1330Z
D. 20.5N 109.5W
E. 14/1845Z TO 14/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#146 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Is any Recon planned for Odile?


It will be a very interesting mission on Sunday.

HURRICANE ODILE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0115E ODILE
C. 14/1330Z
D. 20.5N 109.5W
E. 14/1845Z TO 14/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


For the first time since 2002, we will see a EPAC cyclone at its peak and how strong they really are.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: Re:

#147 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Is any Recon planned for Odile?


It will be a very interesting mission on Sunday.

HURRICANE ODILE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0115E ODILE
C. 14/1330Z
D. 20.5N 109.5W
E. 14/1845Z TO 14/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


For the first time since 2002, we will see a EPAC cyclone at its peak and how strong they really are.

Kenna actually had intensified after recon ended. What about Lane in 2006?
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#148 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:28 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Kenna actually had intensified after recon ended. What about Lane in 2006?


Good call about Kenna. Based on Recon from the following day, you could argue it was 150.

In Lane's case, they only got one pass in so there was not enough time to fully gather data.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#149 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:29 pm

About to pop and eye. Amanda, Cristina, Marie, and Norbert were all this stage at the same time of day too.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 17:15:25 N Lon : 106:24:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 976.1mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.7 3.5

Center Temp : -48.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.1 degrees
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#150 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:38 pm

20140914 0000 17.5 106.1 T5.0/5.0 15E ODILE

If SAB is 4.5, they'll retain. If not, they will go to 90 knts IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#151 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:41 pm

EP, 15, 2014091400, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1062W, 90, 965, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 160, 100, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091400, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1062W, 90, 965, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 50, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091400, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1062W, 90, 965, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#152 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:50 pm

Image
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#153 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:00 pm

This is almost a Major hurricane if not already one

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#154 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:00 pm

With the eye popping, almost a T5.5 in my book. I would say 95 kt.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#155 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:08 pm

Latest microwave

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#156 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:15 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Latest microwave

Image

You can see the dry air in the northern and western semicircles. If Odile can mix this out, it may make a run at Category 4 intensity.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#157 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:18 pm

ADt recognizing the eye. Raw numbers will be at 7.0 shortly.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 17:28:21 N Lon : 106:37:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 977.5mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -22.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.4 degrees
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#158 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:36 pm

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE ODILE
Saturday 13sep14 Time: 2031 UTC
Latitude: 17.17 Longitude: -105.88
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 7 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 956 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 94 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 8mb +/- 9kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.99
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.60
RMW: 28 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1007 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 13 Time (UTC): 1800
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145294
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#159 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:43 pm

New Hurricane Warnings and Watches issued.

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD...
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES...
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
TO LORETO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO MULEGE.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#160 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:43 pm

Could this be the first major hurricane in the satellite era to make a direct landfall on the Baja California peninsula?
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests