#152 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:42 pm
Up to 70 knots!
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY, AND OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND FROM A RING FEATURE ON A 162156Z 89 GHZ GPM
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM
MOTION RESULTING IN OVERALL LOW VWS WHILE A ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
PERSISTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEKKHALA WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN SAMAR BY TAU 12 THEN DRAG ACROSS THE
VISAYAN ISLANDS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY TAU
48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS, AND EVENTUAL EXPOSURE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SCS. TY MEKKHALA
WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU
72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD, LENDING AN
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/