ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[JonathanBelles]

No Floater?

I thought invests got floaters.

I'm not sure why the link from the floaters page is gone, but the link is still active: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[ozonepete]

Thanks for the link Jonathan. Yes, they dropped it off the Floaters page somehow; hopefully they'll restore it soon.

Hi to all of you on our early start to the 2015 season. Especially Jonathan, Hammy, NDG, wxman57, Crazy, Luis, and all of you I've known for a pretty long time now. Great to see you all back.

[psyclone]

86/53 in Tampa right now...thank you Ana. What an interesting little system this is and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we squeezed out a couple more before July 1 from this region westward to the gulf where water temps are meaningfully above average.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah the dew point here in Palm Beach Gardens has risen to 70 in the past hour due to temps. dropping, but earlier this afternoon the dew point was in the mid/upper 50's! Impressive for sure.

[ozonepete]

Looking good. Dewpoints are slowly coming up and convection slowly increasing and wrapping around the center from the southeast side towards the northwest.

[TheStormExpert]

The lastest track and advisory now has it making landfall in the very southern tip of North Carolina, or around the border.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

67 and spotty rain showers all day here in Wilmington. They are calling for between 1-3 inches of rain for the area this weekend. If the convection doesn't pick up around the storm, I will believe that. If convection picks up and the forward speed does not increase, we could be in for a bit more than that.

[ozonepete]

Yeah stormexpert. There may be more adjustments coming. It's so hard to get the forecast track right for stationary systems since the models are still not that good on when they start moving and how fast they pick up speed.

[wxman57]

That vortex we've been following all day (making a counter-clockwise loop) appears to have dissipated. Now there's a more broad low center with increased convection to the NE-SE. Appears to be tropical enough to be a TS now. No change in the forecast. It'll move inland Sunday morning near the SC/NC border, probably as a TS with 40-45kt winds over the water. Probably no reports of TS winds on the coast.

Recon is on the way. They may find 45kts in those heavier squalls. I'll be plotting the HD obs.

[Nimbus]

Wonder if that big burst of convection will recenter the storm a little further north?
This storm has had a history of convective bursts that didn't last, is the shear lessening or is it the dew points?

[wxman57]

Wonder if that big burst of convection will recenter the storm a little further north?
This storm has had a history of convective bursts that didn't last, is the shear lessening or is it the dew points?

Today's vortex moved into that convection to the NE and dissipated, but a new center may be forming closer to the convection. Look for a possible relocated center this evening.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Examining the visible satellite loop, I'm not so sure the original low-level circulation has dissipated more than it's just become obscured by convection. This, along with the ongoing reconnaissance mission, both suggest we've got a strengthening tropical storm this evening.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track still as Subtropical and up to 45kts.

AL, 01, 2015050900, , BEST, 0, 319N, 773W, 45, 1000, SS, 34, NEQ, 100, 120, 80, 100, 1014, 140, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, M

[wxman57]

Models initialized at 50 kts now. Recon found 56kts 10-sec surface wind. Could reach 55-60 kts overnight if that convection persists. Center is close to that convection, too.

[cycloneye]

As 57 said up to 50kts but still Subtropical:

AL, 01, 2015050900, , BEST, 0, 319N, 773W, 50, 1000, SS, 50, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 140, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, M

[ronjon]

Definitely deepening. Pressure down to 998 mb. Center under deep convection. Could Ana surprise and become a CAT 1 hurricane?

[ozonepete]

Definitely deepening. Pressure down to 998 mb. Center under deep convection. Could Ana surprise and become a CAT 1 hurricane?

Can't rule it out now, can we? It has time, and we can't be sure (within 1 or 2 degrees Celsius) of just how warm that water is beneath it.

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/05/08/an ... haping-up/

[WeatherLovingDoc]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/05/08/an ... haping-up/

Nice read! Thanks.

[ozonepete]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/05/08/an ... haping-up/

Nicely done Jonathan. Your presentations just get better and better.