EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

http://i.imgur.com/de0KJjO.jpg

Really need a fresh MW pass to see what that is.

We do. Right now the core looks on VIS a hair disorganized. I mean, it's fine for a 55 knot system, but it needs to become better organized if it wants to become a hurricane tonight, which we won't know for sure without MW.

Most MW passes are between 9z and 18z in this basin.

I think it's almost a hurricane actually. Can't have a warm spot like that and still be a moderate TS, especially since the eye feature has been apparent for the past 4 frames. Usually we see tropical storms showing an eye briefly and then lose it. And earlier passes showed that the core looked sufficient enough for it to be a Cat.1 hurricane very soon.

60kts+ makes sense for me.

[Yellow Evan]

We do. Right now the core looks on VIS a hair disorganized. I mean, it's fine for a 55 knot system, but it needs to become better organized if it wants to become a hurricane tonight, which we won't know for sure without MW.

Most MW passes are between 9z and 18z in this basin.

I think it's almost a hurricane actually. Can't have a warm spot like that and still be a moderate TS, especially since the eye feature has been apparent for the past 4 half an hour frames. Usually we see tropical storms showing an eye briefly and then lose it. And earlier passes showed that the core looked sufficient enough for it to be a Cat.1 hurricane very soon.

60kts+ makes sense for me.

Eh, it's getting there. Slightly ragged though.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  30 JUL 2015    Time :   210000 UTC
      Lat :    9:48:00 N     Lon :  128:23:59 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.6 / 996.0mb/ 57.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.6     3.9     4.1

 Center Temp : -45.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  30 JUL 2015    Time :   210000 UTC
      Lat :    9:48:00 N     Lon :  128:23:59 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.6 / 996.0mb/ 57.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.6     3.9     4.1

 Center Temp : -45.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

Edited post to put the data with the code that is better.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has Big Island land fall.

[Yellow Evan]

Uh oh. 18z GFS big island hurricane. Models seem to be agreeing more with the GFDL.

[Kingarabian]

NHC needs to request a NOAA G-IV plane. Need some legit samples on the environment.

Half the models are not even initializing Guillermo correctly.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

 UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  30 JUL 2015    Time :   220000 UTC
      Lat :   10:08:45 N     Lon :  128:23:00 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 993.2mb/ 61.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.8     4.0     4.1

[Yellow Evan]

NHC needs to request a NOAA G-IV plane. Need some legit samples on the environment.

Half the models are not even initializing Guillermo correctly.

We have buoy data for this since it's so low in altitude.

And there is a G-IV flight at 0z August 3.

[Kingarabian]

Taking on that classic Atlantic hurricane look.

[Hurricane Jed]

That's a good looking storm

[Yellow Evan]

Looks 60-65 knts face value. Reminds me of a CATL storm as well as some 80s storms.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the convective pattern is following the usual diurnal cycle. I'm guessing we will see an explosion of deep convection in the overnight hours and the intensity may really bomb out then.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the convective pattern is following the usual diurnal cycle. I'm guessing we will see an explosion of deep convection in the overnight hours and the intensity may really bomb out then.

The fact it has 3 more days of favorable conditions worries me.

We need some of these highs to build back faster after the trough passes and hopefully avoid a hit.

[SouthDadeFish]

Best looking tropical storm of all-time?

[Kingarabian]

Best looking tropical storm of all-time?

http://i.imgur.com/fTlwHUt.gif

Why not?

It already has the following awards for:

Best looking Invest

Best looking Tropical Depression

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the convective pattern is following the usual diurnal cycle. I'm guessing we will see an explosion of deep convection in the overnight hours and the intensity may really bomb out then.

The fact it has 3 more days of favorable conditions worries me.

We need some of these highs to build back faster after the trough passes and hopefully avoid a hit.

It might have less than 3 days. If the SHIPS guidance is correct, around 48-60 hours.

Also, note that systems near the Big Island often fall apart right before landfall and the storm will be over hostile conditions for4 a while unless the track shifts further south.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  30 JUL 2015    Time :   223000 UTC
      Lat :   10:05:36 N     Lon :  128:30:09 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 993.2mb/ 61.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.8     4.0     4.0

 Center Temp : -54.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -60.1C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a pinhole eye is forming on visible

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[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 5m5 minutes ago
#Guillermo sure looks good-- is that an eye trying to peek out already? One to watch for quick strengthening...