EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#141 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:33 pm

Category Four 115kts

...LESTER BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 130.5W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES




HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester continues to strengthen. Visible and enhanced BD-curve
infrared imagery show a symmetric, thick, inner core ring consisting
of cloud tops of -70 to -75C and an impressive fanning outflow
pattern. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity to 115
kt, making Lester a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A low vertical shear environment should
persist during the next several days, and the sea surface
temperatures are expected to remain around 26C as the cyclone moves
along the climatolgically oriented eastern Pacific SST gradient.
Statistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the hurricane
may have already peaked, but there still could be some intensity
fluctuations during the next 12 hours. Afterward, the cyclone
should gradually weaken, most likely caused by an increasingly
marginal thermodynamic environment and a decreasing oceanic heat
content. The intensity forecast is nudged a little higher due to
the current intensification trend, and is close to the intensity
multi-model consensus.

Lester's initial motion estimate is a steadfast 270/12. A
subtropical high anchored to the north of Lester should influence a
generally westward course during the next 3 days. Through the
remaining forecast period, the cyclone is expected to gradually turn
west-northwestward in response to some binary interaction with
Madeline situated to the southwest of Lester. The official forecast
is based on this scenario and sides with the TVCN consensus model
and is basically an update of the previous package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 18.0N 130.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 18.0N 132.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 18.1N 134.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 18.0N 137.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 18.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 19.6N 148.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 21.2N 153.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane - 2 PM PDT advisory=Category 4 - 115kts

#142 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:38 pm

Annular?

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane - 2 PM PDT advisory=Category 4 - 115kts

#143 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:58 pm

Breathtaking :uarrow: .

Let's if it can rival Daniel 2006. To me that's the best annular cane I've ever seen.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#144 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:17 pm

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#145 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:20 pm

Looks like a WPac monster in the Epac. Starting to look annular indeed, maybe it can strengthen further?
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#146 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:24 pm

Eye re-warming

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 18:03:01 N Lon : 130:33:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.2mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +16.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane - 2 PM PDT advisory=Category 4 - 115kts

#147 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:26 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Breathtaking :uarrow: .

Let's if it can rival Danny 2007. To me that's the best annular canr I've ever seen.


Daniel '06? That was a classic long-lived EPAC annular cane.
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane - 2 PM PDT advisory=Category 4 - 115kts

#148 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:28 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Breathtaking :uarrow: .

Let's if it can rival Danny 2007. To me that's the best annular canr I've ever seen.


Daniel '06? That was a classic long-lived EPAC annular cane.


Oops! Thanks for the correction.
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#149 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:58 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#150 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:59 pm

Very warm eye, still think this is deserving of 120kts

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 18:08:54 N Lon : 130:51:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 943.1mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 30 km

Center Temp : +16.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#151 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 6:01 pm

This is an absolutely breathtaking storm. The Pacific this year continues to be very active with 5 major hurricanes thus far and we're not even done with August yet. Not to mention simultaneous major hurricanes! :eek: :eek:
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#152 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 29, 2016 6:24 pm

A DT of 6.5 (125 kt) may be in the cards if the eye can remain sufficiently embedded in the black color shade on the BD enhancement.

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#153 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 6:32 pm

Special advisory anyone? I mean this must be the best looking storm of the year thus far and IMO it looks to be more than 115 knots with that big eye and amazing symmetry.
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#154 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 29, 2016 6:36 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Special advisory anyone? I mean this must be the best looking storm of the year thus far and IMO it looks to be more than 115 knots with that big eye and amazing symmetry.


Highly doubtful given its max T6.5 right now, and unlikely to go any higher.
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#155 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:20 pm

Very small beautiful hurricane. For some reason, this reminded me of a pink pokemon... :lol:

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#156 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:26 pm

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#157 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:32 pm

Weak to the north. Although it is a strong and impressive eyewall.

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#158 Postby znel52 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:54 pm

Wow what a beauty this storm is!
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#159 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:01 pm

Quite an impressive hurricane.

The intensity forecast model did not handle Lester well. I saw the forecast and it was not forecasted to be a major hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#160 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:12 pm

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