WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

That’s about the same landfall location as Bopha ‘12 if I’m not mistaken.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INTO A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A DOPPLER COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 AND SUPPORTED BY NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), DUAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EAST
CENTRAL MINDANAO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN TRACK ACROSS INTO THE
SULU SEA, CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF PALAWAN JUST BEFORE TAU 48. BY
TAU 72, TS 33W WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MIDWAY BETWEEN PALAWAN
AND SOUTH VIETNAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, INITIALLY, LAND
INTERACTION WITH MINDANAO WILL MOMENTARILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY, PEAKING
AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN VIETNAM
WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH AFTER TAU 96 AND BY TAU 120, WILL EXIT INTO THE
GULF OF THAILAND JUST SOUTH OF CAMBODIA AND REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 72,
OTHERWISE THERE IS A TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
LEADING TO AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Radar of Tembin at landfall. Clearly underestimated. At least a Cat 1 or even a 2. Can't ignore the defined eye.

[Alyono]

Radar of Tembin at landfall. Clearly underestimated. At least a Cat 1 or even a 2. Can't ignore the defined eye.

PLEASE stop over hyping these storms.

ASCAT hit this and showed a 40 kt storm just before landfall

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas245.png

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

A earlier ascat was 4kts on pass non rain affected with plenty of land clearance.


Any land fall obs?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

50-55 kts seems reasonable.

[doomhaMwx]

A earlier ascat was 4kts on pass non rain affected with plenty of land clearance.


Any land fall obs?

I see one 50kt flag in there.

[doomhaMwx]

There is an increasing possibility that Tembin will stay south enough to bring effects/impacts to the northern portions of Borneo island.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, INDICATED BY WARMING/COLLAPSING
CONVECTION AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE TRACKED ACROSS
MINDANAO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A CLOSED CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A DOPPLER COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RIGHT BEFORE
LANDFALL AND SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STR. NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO, THEN CROSS THE SULU SEA,
CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF PALAWAN JUST BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BEFORE TAU 48. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SSTS IN THE SCS (28 CELSIUS), WILL
PERSIST AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, DURING THE
INITIAL 12 HOURS, LAND INTERACTION WITH MINDANAO WILL MOMENTARILY
TEMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY, PEAKING
AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TS 33W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN,
DOWN TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN VIETNAM
WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH CITY NEAR TAU 96 AND BY TAU 120, WILL EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF THAILAND JUST SOUTH OF CAMBODIA, REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 72,
OTHERWISE THERE IS A TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
LEADING TO AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

That’s not even a complete eyewall on radar. 55kt looks very reasonable to me.

[dexterlabio]

Hearing from the local reports that some cities in Mindanao are experiencing severe flashflood. The downtown portion of Cagayan de Oro City is submerged in water, the same area devastated by Washi in 2011...I'm not sure though if the flooding is just as bad, although hopefully there are no more casualties. I'm gonna assume that the country has already learned their lesson after all these years.


(Image from https://twitter.com/sweetymich_)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hearing from the local reports that some cities in Mindanao are experiencing severe flashflood. The downtown portion of Cagayan de Oro City is submerged in water, the same area devastated by Washi in 2011...I'm not sure though if the flooding is just as bad, although hopefully there are no more casualties. I'm gonna assume that the country has already learned their lesson after all these years.


(Image from https://twitter.com/sweetymich_)

People in FB say this is even worse than what happened a few years back... presumably that was Washi

[euro6208]

Very near Pagadian City in Zamboanga del Sur.

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERYSHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
FLARING CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 220723Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION RESIDES EXCLUSIVELY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON DOPPLER COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
INTENSITY MEASUREMENTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND IS BASED ON THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SINCE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS TEMBIN HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. PRIOR TO TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE SULU SEA. ONCE OVER WATER TS 33W WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PALAWAN AND INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 36. PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST
TO BE 75 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 72. LAND INTERACTION
COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TS TEMBIN. AROUND
TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BACK OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AS A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM WHERE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
TS 33W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, THOUGH
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. DUE TO THE GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AND
THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Is a fighter.

[euro6208]

Radar of Tembin at landfall. Clearly underestimated. At least a Cat 1 or even a 2. Can't ignore the defined eye.

PLEASE stop over hyping these storms.

ASCAT hit this and showed a 40 kt storm just before landfall

So your going against JTWC and JMA's 50 knots landfall? Too bad that image wasn't saved but i didn't see any 40 knots in the ASCAT imagery while at work. They were higher.

[Alyono]

Radar of Tembin at landfall. Clearly underestimated. At least a Cat 1 or even a 2. Can't ignore the defined eye.

PLEASE stop over hyping these storms.

ASCAT hit this and showed a 40 kt storm just before landfall

So your going against JTWC and JMA's 50 knots landfall? Too bad that image wasn't saved but i didn't see any 40 knots in the ASCAT imagery while at work. They were higher.

Yes i am. I will stick with data over subjective estimates

[doomhaMwx]

Now over the Sulu Sea.



Rainfall accumulations in Palawan and northern sections of Borneo may also reach/exceed 100-200mm(4-8in) this Saturday-Sunday.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Radar of Tembin at landfall. Clearly underestimated. At least a Cat 1 or even a 2. Can't ignore the defined eye.

The maximum this could have gone reasonably at its initial peak was 60 kts. That's the highest realistic intensity estimate possible given the ASCAT, RAMMB analyses found. ASCAT found 45 kt barbs at most, while the latter estimated 61 kts. None of these support your hyperbolic intensity estimates. Not a single agency has typhoon intensity. Not all storms that have an apparent eye or eye-like feature in radar yield intensities of typhoon strength. Furthermore, not every storm that looks subjectively "impressive" to you through satellite presentation is underestimated.

[Alyono]

ASCAT says this is a tropical depression with an exposed center

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas245.png

[Alyono]

only TS winds were flagged in that ASCAT. This is ane xample of a TC where Dvorak over estimates the intensity