ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Good population of overshooting tops.
Cirrus building underway.

[Steve]

I would had thought that many people in SE TX would had been happy that the Euro shifted east this morning.
Still a very complex situation here, the latest GFS went back to its idea of the low level vorticity not going underneath the mid level circulation. Today we should get a better idea of what model has been right so far. The Euro keeps persistent that an h85 vorticity will be noticeable by this evening SW of Cedar Key while the GFS keeps showing to be a bit further north and elongated.

I definitely am, but as you know me you also know that I have a lot of friends and family still in Louisiana. I'm also intrested to see if these models continue to do the windshield wipers flip flop and go back-and-forth so that the next run will shift back into South East Texas.

Some of us want to be here.

Went to the store to get some non perishables and stock up on a few cases of water just in case with one straight to the freezer. I’m in wait and see mode, but storms into south central LA (Gustav and Andrew come to mind) usually mean power outages here and downed trees. Assuming no levee issues, we just might have to get through a few days should the EC scenario occur. I’ll be glued and yeah, I woke up like 3:45am to check models. You know it’s hurricane season when...

[NDG]

Looking at radar out of Tallahassee. The velocities and storm motion with surface obs pointing a circ/vort possibly developing.. of course broad right now... south of Tallahassee right on the coast.

I agree.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at radar out of Tallahassee. The velocities and storm motion with surface obs pointing a circ/vort possibly developing.. of course broad right now... south of Tallahassee right on the coast.

I agree.

Right near or just off the coast of Saint Marks, just south of Tallahassee.

[SoupBone]

I would had thought that many people in SE TX would had been happy that the Euro shifted east this morning.
Still a very complex situation here, the latest GFS went back to its idea of the low level vorticity not going underneath the mid level circulation. Today we should get a better idea of what model has been right so far. The Euro keeps persistent that an h85 vorticity will be noticeable by this evening SW of Cedar Key while the GFS keeps showing to be a bit further north and elongated.

I definitely am, but as you know me you also know that I have a lot of friends and family still in Louisiana. I'm also intrested to see if these models continue to do the windshield wipers flip flop and go back-and-forth so that the next run will shift back into South East Texas.

Some of us want to be here.

Went to the store to get some non perishables and stock up on a few cases of water just in case with one straight to the freezer. I’m in wait and see mode, but storms into south central LA (Gustav and Andrew come to mind) usually mean power outages here and downed trees. Assuming no levee issues, we just might have to get through a few days should the EC scenario occur. I’ll be glued and yeah, I woke up like 3:45am to check models. You know it’s hurricane season when...

I remember Gustav well. Out of power for 13 days, cold showers, the works. I didn't think the Euro would move east to be honest, and now the GFS not showing much development really has me scratching my head, especially with such a small window before landfall.

[GCANE]

Watching this area refire.
Could be a tower about to pop.

[bjackrian]

From the NWS Boulder (Colorado!) AFD. Lots of forecasts riding on 92L, and not just along the coast.

There is lower confidence in the forecast beyond Saturday as model disagreement becomes greater. The exact track and development, or lack thereof, of the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is leading to this greater uncertainty. It is possible that this disturbance influences the weather in our region although any direct impacts are highly unlikely. Once models get a handle on this disturbance, forecast confidence will likely increase.

[NDG]

Vorticity trying to get going just offshore.

[p1nheadlarry]

Watching this area refire.
Could be a tower about to pop.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/8549/dyWUeS.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5237/DfqMBi.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8810/Z8v6hx.png

Still need help from the MLC to keep vorticity concentrated where this is ongoing

[Aric Dunn]

That cluster nw of Tampa has a bunch of convergence and is starting to rotate on radar...

[SoupBone]

That cluster nw of Tampa has a bunch of convergence and is starting to rotate on radar...

Is that development location more favorable to the Euro solution?

[NDG]

That cluster nw of Tampa has a bunch of convergence and is starting to rotate on radar...

Is that development location more favorable to the Euro solution?

Yes.

[Blinhart]

Vorticity trying to get going just offshore.

https://i.imgur.com/rpvelNu.gif

Sure looks like a pot of water starting to boil, just like it really is, this thing could explode into a monster if everything is set up proper.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=5186.653564453125&y=5180.84130859375

[Aric Dunn]

Also always remember how fast something can go from nothing to a hurricane (not saying it will) but Humberto was litterally just like this with no convection almost no vorticity then all of a sudden bam..

https://youtu.be/Ilz5t1WwMZY

[robbielyn]

Also always remember how fast something can go from nothing to a hurricane (not saying it will) but Humberto was litterally just like this with no convection almost no vorticity then all of a sudden bam..

https://youtu.be/Ilz5t1WwMZY

Yes and hugging the coast I don't remember storms well like the rest of you however, I remember that one well. That surprised Texans and the rest of us for that matter.

[AnnularCane]

Also always remember how fast something can go from nothing to a hurricane (not saying it will) but Humberto was litterally just like this with no convection almost no vorticity then all of a sudden bam..

https://youtu.be/Ilz5t1WwMZY

That's why I don't trust the Gulf! Not that it can't happen anywhere else, but the Gulf (and western Caribbean too) seem especially notorious for that kind of thing.

Cindy 2005 is another one. I think we were expecting a somewhat lopsided tropical storm and then she hit with a rather unexpected force.

[BobHarlem]

It looks like the shear might kick up before any landfall. It'll probably be just a semi-decent rain maker. If you are thinking more wind, you'd do better to press high on the ceiling fan remote.

[HurricaneBrain]

Have any forecast data to back that up?

It looks like the shear might kick up before any landfall. It'll probably be just a semi-decent rain maker. If you are thinking more wind, you'd do better to press high on the ceiling fan remote.

[GCANE]

Surface Winds starting to gel at a number of coastal stations.