ATL: BARRY - Models

[TheProfessor]

The Icon and CMC would be devastating for the southern Mississippi River basin. The GFS would still be pretty bad, especially if there wasn't a sharp northern cut off for precipitation.

[Kingarabian]

Anyone have the UKMET output?

[MississippiWx]

The Icon and CMC would be devastating for the southern Mississippi River basin. The GFS would still be pretty bad, especially if there wasn't a sharp northern cut off for precipitation.

Yes, one trend I've noticed is a slower movement being shown by the models. Regardless of landfall point, rainfall near and to the east could be devastating if the system slows.

[MississippiWx]

Thank you, Kingarabian. UKMET still with a Southeast to South-Central LA landfall and ~980mb pressure.

[stormlover2013]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=096


Shows sw la

[USTropics]

Technically UKMET kills 92L:

Code: Select all

00UTC   09.07.2019   33.8N   83.2W   WEAK
12UTC 09.07.2019   BELOW TROPICAL STORM   STRENGTH

Then it creates a new identity on the 12th:

Code: Select all

 12UTC 12.07.2019  29.2N  90.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.07.2019  29.2N  91.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.07.2019  30.0N  92.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.07.2019  31.1N  92.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.07.2019  32.4N  92.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2019  33.6N  93.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

Finally, we have a system off the EC (most likely spawned by the vorticity that was evident in the Carolinas earlier today):

Code: Select all

12UTC   09.07.2019   36.7N  66.9W   WEAK   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC   10.07.2019   37.0N  62.4W   WEAK   LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC   10.07.2019   37.8N  56.2W   WEAK   LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC   11.07.2019   40.9N  48.1W   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC   11.07.2019   47.0N  41.2W   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC   12.07.2019   51.7N  39.4W   MODERATE   LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC   12.07.2019   54.7N  37.8W   MODERATE   LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC   13.07.2019   POST-TROPICAL   

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET ensembles should be out later. If no one else posts them I'll try

[TheProfessor]

Technically UKMET kills 92L:
Nice track, pretty accurate compared to what weathermodels shows. Definitely a west shift compared to the 12z, Much more inline with the Euro and other models.

[Dylan]

0z UKMET sends a 984mb hurricane into central Louisiana.

[Tailspin]

0z UKMET sends a 984mb hurricane into central Louisiana.

https://imgur.com/bpUy2RY
link to the run.

[mcheer23]

EURO is shifting a bit East.

[LeonardRay]

EURO is shifting a bit East.

yep into central la

[Dylan]

EURO back east! Saturday landfall in central Louisiana!

[LeonardRay]

EURO back east! Saturday landfall in central Louisiana!

So now GFS is Galveston and Euro is central La

[Haris]

Tonights models seem to be converging on central LA.

We shall see if this occurs but its still many days out. I am guessing Texas is still a plausible solution.

[LeonardRay]

Tonights models seem to be converging on central LA.

We shall see if this occurs but its still many days out. I am guessing Texas is still a plausible solution.

Until we have a verified stacked center, im certain it will continue to bounce back and forth as the models try to resolve--- maybe Wednesday or Thursday before its all ironed out

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 48-144:


High resolution Euro shows 984mb over central LA.

[mcheer23]

Models will keep shifting until we have a defined center over water.

[TheProfessor]

Interestingly enough the 0z Euro moved a bit a bit more towards some of those GFS runs in low placement that's further north(although I assume it's far more vertically stacked but haven't looked yet lol.) The further north low is likely feeling the weakness more. This tells me that we could find out a lot about where this storm could go during the early formations of it due to how far north/south it is.

[Dylan]

Consensus is growing for a Louisiana landfall this weekend. Looking forward to seeing the 0z EPS memebers.