ATL: KAREN - Models

[LarryWx]

It ends up at 240 in far SE Gulf moving NNW.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It ends up at 240 in far SE Gulf moving NNW.

957 mb? what a run lol. We better not see anything close to this even think about verifying. Good thing about these runs is that we know that IF this turn occurs, it would be on Friday.

[1900hurricane]

W NA block looks like it could be an important feature going forwards.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian Ensemble considerably backed off on the number of members showing this system reaching FL and the Gulf compared to the 12z run.

[sma10]

Sorry to say that I'm not that shocked at this 0z solution. Scouring thru the details of all 50 ensemble members of the 12z Euro run, there were numerous multi-day W/WSW trackers.

We now know that the GFS/CMC/Euro all agree on very anomalous ridging, lets see if the idea holds. If they are correct - obviously a BIG if, then .... well let's see if the idea holds.

[Kingarabian]

Wow the 00z Euro is crazy. 2019 seems to be the year of un-orthodox tracks.

[bamajammer4eva]

WOW- EVIL EVIL Looks almost like a similar situation from a year ago-different origin and much weaker of course thankfully. There's plenty of time for change and this far out will certainly not happen especially from a cape verde storm!

[sma10]

It ends up at 240 in far SE Gulf moving NNW.

I know you will anxiously be looking thru the EPS
What I'm most interested is how many of the 50 DO develop 99L at all. Is it 50%? 90%? And of those that develop, how many recurve harmlessly compared to threaten the CONUS

[LarryWx]

0z Canadian Ensemble considerably backed off on the number of members showing this system reaching FL and the Gulf compared to the 12z run.

Yes, that's true but the run is no less ominous for the CONUS as a whole imo as it hits GA and SC much harder than the 12z run and it still hits FL pretty hard. I still counted 5 mainly H hits on the FL pen 9/28-30, alone. Then 4 of these 5 went into the Gulf. And then there are 3 hits on GA and/or SC 10/1-5 vs no GA/SC hits on the 12Z.

[sma10]

0z Canadian Ensemble considerably backed off on the number of members showing this system reaching FL and the Gulf compared to the 12z run.

Yes, that's true but the run is no less ominous for the CONUS as a whole imo as it hits GA and SC much harder than the 12z run and it still hits FL pretty hard. I still counted 5 mainly H hits on the FL pen 9/28-30, alone. Then 4 of these 5 went into the Gulf. And then there are 3 hits on GA and/or SC 10/1-5 vs no GA/SC hits on the 12Z.

Not to mention the Operational run looks to be in a menacing position at run's end

[CFLHurricane]

0z Canadian Ensemble considerably backed off on the number of members showing this system reaching FL and the Gulf compared to the 12z run.

Yes, that's true but the run is no less ominous for the CONUS as a whole imo as it hits GA and SC much harder than the 12z run and it still hits FL pretty hard. I still counted 5 mainly H hits on the FL pen 9/28-30, alone. Then 4 of these 5 went into the Gulf. And then there are 3 hits on GA and/or SC 10/1-5 vs no GA/SC hits on the 12Z.

Not to mention the Operational run looks to be in a menacing position at run's end

Hell yeah, gimme that dirty side just like I like it

[LarryWx]

It ends up at 240 in far SE Gulf moving NNW.

I know you will anxiously be looking thru the EPS
What I'm most interested is how many of the 50 DO develop 99L at all. Is it 50%? 90%? And of those that develop, how many recurve harmlessly compared to threaten the CONUS

The 0Z EPS is very ominous for the CONUS and much worse than the 12Z. I'd say at least 30 of the 51 or so members form a TC and 2/3 of those move toward and and mostly hit the US with only ~10 (roughly 1/3 of the TCs) recurving away from the CONUS. Just over 1/3 of the 52 (~18) members hit the CONUS 9/29-10/3 with some hitting twice (those FL followed by Gulf but one hits FL and then NC).

[sma10]

WOW- EVIL EVIL Looks almost like a similar situation from a year ago-different origin and much weaker of course thankfully. There's plenty of time for change and this far out will certainly not happen especially from a cape verde storm!


https://i.imgur.com/4gkwGVf.gif

It seems to me that on the occasions where ridges are super stout ... the models tend to underplay the southerly movement. Irma, Ike, Rita, Katrina are some that come immediately to mind, as they ended up going a bit further South than originally thought. Obviously many days away, but if that modeled pattern verifies, I wouldn't even be surprised if the Yucatan is in play

[sma10]

It ends up at 240 in far SE Gulf moving NNW.

I know you will anxiously be looking thru the EPS
What I'm most interested is how many of the 50 DO develop 99L at all. Is it 50%? 90%? And of those that develop, how many recurve harmlessly compared to threaten the CONUS

The 0Z EPS is very ominous for the CONUS and much worse than the 12Z. I'd say at least 30 of the 51 or so members form a TC and 2/3 of those move toward and and mostly hit the US with only ~10 (roughly 1/3 of the TCs) recurving away from the CONUS. So, probably about 1/3 of the 52 (~17) members hit the CONUS 9/29-10/3.

Larry, are the threats batched tightly with the Operational? I.e. Bahamas/Cuba/Keys
Or widely spread?

[LarryWx]

I know you will anxiously be looking thru the EPS
What I'm most interested is how many of the 50 DO develop 99L at all. Is it 50%? 90%? And of those that develop, how many recurve harmlessly compared to threaten the CONUS

The 0Z EPS is very ominous for the CONUS and much worse than the 12Z. I'd say at least 30 of the 51 or so members form a TC and 2/3 of those move toward and and mostly hit the US with only ~10 (roughly 1/3 of the TCs) recurving away from the CONUS. So, probably about 1/3 of the 52 (~17) members hit the CONUS 9/29-10/3.

Larry, are the threats batched tightly with the Operational? I.e. Bahamas/Cuba/Keys
Or widely spread?

Widely spaced kind of like the 0Z Canadian ensemble

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensembles:

[Jr0d]

Looks like I will have to this closely here in Key West.

I have noticed for days the major models have shown a strong ridge building in after Jerry exits. At first it appeared the timing was right for the ridge not to connect with a storm and threaten the US. Obviously that outlook has changed.

There's just so many variables right now to make any conclusions except the CONUS, GoM, everyone from the Virgin Islands and west, even the Yucatan Peninsula could be hit.

Where the center forms is crucial, once that happens the models should get a better picture.

Timing is everything, how fast it moves, how strong the ridge is, when the next trough pushes through, ect...

Intensity is guess work for the most part at this stage but I do not see anything that will stop this from becoming a hurricane down the road.

The only certainty is this thread will be quite active this week.

[Astromanía]

look at that consistency

[TheStormExpert]

Whelp! I stand corrected when I said the gulf was far from at threat.

99L is also in the same spot where models started latching onto Dorian.

[Astromanía]

Some of those tracks remind me Katrina or Rita