EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

I have absolutely no words. Truly a nightmare, indeed.

[Ptarmigan]

A rapidly intensifying hurricane before landfall is frightening.

[MarioProtVI]

This is a nightmare scenario - basically Mexico’s Katrina. 24 hours ago it was a moderate TS and it’s now a Cat 5…Godspeed those in Acapulco.

[CrazyC83]

This is a nightmare scenario - basically Mexico’s Katrina. 24 hours ago it was a moderate TS and it’s now a Cat 5…Godspeed those in Acapulco.

Katrina on high-powered steroids. It would be like if Katrina was a tropical storm 36 hours before landfall.

[FireRat]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES




Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening
with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite
images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak
Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The
initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values,
making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively
intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in
modern times by Patricia in 2015.

Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes
landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday.
The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is
that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the
east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest
motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid
weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate
tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico.

This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco
metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely
to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are
no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part
of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early
Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in
portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage
expected.

2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

That discussion scared me...

I second that! This discussion might be worth framing for its historical aspect, just unreal!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Outside of it speedrunning to C5 status at an unprecedented rate before landfall this will be striking at the absolute worst time as well. Very dire situation for the Acapulco area, if it wasn't evident already.

[Category5Kaiju]

The "List of EPAC Cat 5 hurricanes" wikipedia article has this verbatim phrase: "None made landfall as Category 5 hurricanes."

That might change soon.

[FrontRunner]

Based on the new track, when does it look like landfall will occur? 3-4 am local time?

[CrazyC83]

Based on the new track, when does it look like landfall will occur? 3-4 am local time?

At this point, I'd guess between 09Z and 11Z.

[Cyclenall]

Among the fastest eye-clearings I've seen in the Epac basin. Lightning all over the eye. Those trochoidal wobbles are incredible with Otis almost like there is an invisible piece of the eye dancing with the warmest part.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

*My take only* Typically MX hurricanes that are at the high end have trouble maintaining peak intensity right to LF (terrain). We know what Patty did and many others but Otis is moving much more north to an area that doesn't have a record of an intense hurricane. The northern semi-circle is holding up well so far. Could be a Michael situation.

To show how absurd this RI is, here are model trends within the last 2 days - generally regarded as a reliable range for models. Keep in mind, hurricane models are frequently criticized for being too aggressive.

The forecasts are for 0z Oct 25. NHC's pressure estimate at this time is 941 mb.

*Snipped*

None of the hurricane models shows a major hurricane until the last 1-2 frames (6-12 hours ago). Euro still insists that it will be a TS.

On one of those GFS frames there wasn't even a closed isobar!! lol

NHC discussion simple without getting too deep, but among the most ominous of all time.

[SecondBreakfast]

This is terrible. Are there structures that can withstand this in Acapulco city?

[zal0phus]

How did this even happen? Otis might even have Patricia's rate of intensification beat. There doesn't seem to be any analogue for this in recorded history in the EPac.
Fingers crossed for Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta, and the whole area. Let's hope Otis' small size prevents it from being maximally damaging.

[CrazyC83]

How did this even happen? Otis might even have Patricia's rate of intensification beat. There doesn't seem to be any analogue for this in recorded history in the EPac.
Fingers crossed for Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta, and the whole area. Let's hope Otis' small size prevents it from being maximally damaging.

Even in the Atlantic, the only parallel I can think of near landfall was the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which went from cat 1 to high-end cat 5 in less than 24 hours.

[Astromanía]

Damn my country just don't understand how horrible this is, not much attention at all

[Astromanía]

Live camera on the beach
https://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-playa

[CrazyC83]

Live camera on the beach
https://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-playa

We'll have to see how long it survives. I know the storm surge isn't mentioned, but 12 to 15 feet seems like a reasonable estimate - similar to what Michael brought.

[Beef Stew]

Otis is placing himself in a league if his own in terms of intensification… and it looks like he will be the strongest landfall on record in the basin as well. Hoping for a wobble away, or a Patricia-esq collapse, but unfortunately it looks like Acapulco is going to get hammered… and that part of Mexico’s coastline is quite underprepared for most hurricanes, much less a category 4/5 monster. I’m afraid this may end up as quite a humanitarian crisis…

[CrazyC83]

The eye seems to be warming, although the CDG is gone for now. Still, looks like a solid T7.0-7.5 to me.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like that the eye of Otis may not only pass very close, but over Acapulco.

[HurricaneRyan]

This feels like a worst case scenario