ATL: BERYL - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

Does Beryl's future track remind anyone of something


(It's Emily 2005...fyi)

[3090]

Does Beryl's future track remind anyone of something
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/Emily_2005_path.png/1920px-Emily_2005_path.png

(It's Emily 2005...fyi)

So far, very similar!!

[Astromanía]

Yes I was thinking about that. The track, the time of the year, the intensity, La niña being present, etc

[BobHarlem]

12z euro definitely changing its tune on intensity now
(0z was a TS at this point)


Even still really strong later on closer to Jamaica (current frame) also slower and a bit right of the 0z. Slides just south of Jamaica after this.

[Xyls]

Does Beryl's future track remind anyone of something
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/Emily_2005_path.png/1920px-Emily_2005_path.png

(It's Emily 2005...fyi)

So far, very similar!!

Yes, but also mix in Maria for intensity before it gets to the Lesser Antilles.

[BobHarlem]

!2Z euro further north up into the Yucatan Peninsula up by Mahahual aka Costa Maya. Slower, but stronger and to the right of 0z.
\

Gets into the Bay of Campeche a lot weaker

[jlauderdal]

!2Z euro further north up into the Yucatan Peninsula up by Mahahual aka Costa Maya. Slower, but stronger and to the right of 0z.
\

Gets into the Bay of Campeche a lot weaker

Its all about intensity for track, lets see how the ensembles look. Jamaican threat increasing by the hour.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro winds it up in Tampico, restrengthening in the Bay of Campeche before hand way north of where 0z had it well buried into Central America.

[ColdMiser123]

More tracks into Texas with the 12z EPS, since many of them are stronger compared to 0z in the Caribbean.

[aspen]

934mb/140 kt Cat 5 south of Haiti on the 12z HWRF lol.

I think the HAFS-A/B have a better idea on the evolution of Beryl. Gradually intensifies over the next few days, peaks as a Cat 2/3 while passing through the Lesser Antilles, immediately starts struggling with shear and drops to a Cat 1, then really gets hammered when it passes near or over Jamaica.

[Stratton23]

Very interesting trends with the ICON/ GFS showing an system that stays in tact and strengthens in the southern gulf, we will need to watch for any sort of weakness to the north, i would say Texas is definitely in the cards and we will need to watch this very closely

[HurricaneBelle]

Does Beryl's future track remind anyone of something
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/Emily_2005_path.png/1920px-Emily_2005_path.png

(It's Emily 2005...fyi)

So far, very similar!!

And with potential Chris following behind and possibly more likely to feel a weakness created by Beryl, we could have Dennis/Emily redux but in reverse

[LadyBug72]

Very interesting trends with the ICON/ GFS showing an system that stays in tact and strengthens in the southern gulf, we will need to watch for any sort of weakness to the north, i would say Texas is definitely in the cards and we will need to watch this very closely

I thought the high was supposed to dig down and keep it away from Texas?

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Does Beryl's future track remind anyone of something
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/Emily_2005_path.png/1920px-Emily_2005_path.png

(It's Emily 2005...fyi)

So far, very similar!!

And with potential Chris following behind and possibly more likely to feel a weakness created by Beryl, we could have Dennis/Emily redux but in reverse

well lets hope not. Dennis was overshadowed by all the other storms that year and left a ton of destruction at that time. In a normal year Dennis would of the peak of the season


The pattern to strengthen is certainly agreeable to your post tho. But where it goes is the question

[lsuhurricane]

Presented without comment

[Cpv17]

Very interesting trends with the ICON/ GFS showing an system that stays in tact and strengthens in the southern gulf, we will need to watch for any sort of weakness to the north, i would say Texas is definitely in the cards and we will need to watch this very closely

I thought the high was supposed to dig down and keep it away from Texas?

That’s a possibility, but that’s never been a certainty.

[aspen]

https://i.ibb.co/Wp1nSV2/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

Presented without comment

Welcome back Emily ‘05.

[3090]

Some of the latest EURO ensembles are split. All the way from the Mexican coast deep south in the BOC, all the way over to Pensacola.

Needless to say, the EURO ensembles (too far out IMO) are varied wide and far! We shall see how they begin to narrow, as Beryl moves closer to the Carribean and into the Carribean. Still more than 5 days out from any landfall along any land along the gulf coast. Including Mexico. Timing and location if Beryl, and strength, as Beryl relates to the trough are all players.

[Javlin]

Some of the latest EURO ensembles are split. All the way from the Mexican coast deep south in the BOC, all the way over to Pensacola.

Look a little closer some of what you see is AKA Chris going to Pensacola this is the one I am interested in.

I see it now Ivan turn.

[Buck]

Does Beryl's future track remind anyone of something
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/Emily_2005_path.png/1920px-Emily_2005_path.png

(It's Emily 2005...fyi)

So far, very similar!!

And with potential Chris following behind and possibly more likely to feel a weakness created by Beryl, we could have Dennis/Emily redux but in reverse

Really hoping that’s not the case… my family vacation is in Gulf Shores 7/6-13