Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: no TC

[Stratton23]

Goven the majority of guidance is on board with development, I think the nhc will start increasing odds of development

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro ensemble: I’ll just say that I hope SFLcane has gone nightnight

[Stratton23]

holy smokes the EPS has many incredibly powerful members on this run, the gulf and the SE US need to be watching this one

[SFLcane]

Woah!!

[SFLcane]

0Z Euro ensemble: I’ll just say that I hope SFLcane has gone nightnight

I am up!

[kevin]

Busiest Euro ensemble in terms of intense TCs since Beryl. 37 out of 51 members (~70%) show a TC forming from this disturbance, with 10 out 51 members showing a strong TC with a pressure below 970 mb. We've said it multiple times already, but I think this might finally be the actual switch flip.

If you'd purely use the Euro 00z ensemble there is a 31% (16/51) chance of a TD within the next 48 hours and 63% (32/51) chance of a TD in the next 7 days. If other models agree and the Euro signal continues I expect a significant raise in NHC formation chances over the next 24 hours. GEFS is still more bearish with 13% (4/31) chance of a TD from this disturbance within 48 hours and 35% (11/31) in the next 7 days.

[Ivanhater]

Still has an escape hatch (for the US) if it gets strong before the western Caribbean. However, getting increasingly concerned for Florida and the Gulf if development is delayed until West of Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

Wowe, woke up to a 180 from the models. This is for only my area.

[aspen]

I’m surprised to see that not only have all models have upticked overnight, but that they’ve trended towards a Caribbean system. Maybe another Caribbean Cruiser is on the horizon?

[Blown Away]

Wowe, woke up to a 180 from the models. This is for only my area.

https://i.imgur.com/PB91FNP.jpeg

Wow, these types of tracks tend to lean towards GOM or CA...

[chris_fit]

Well - I was not expecting that overnight! It's like someone flipped a switch. 9 Days late, but meh!

[caneman]

Well - I was not expecting that overnight! It's like someone flipped a switch. 9 Days late, but meh!

Some of us have been saying that this could be a backloaded later season with LA Nina firing up late. Every year is different and unique and adds a new variable or twist when trying to just use climatology.

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS 216 hrs



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[Ivanhater]

240 hrs



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[Ivanhater]

Approaching western Cuba rapidly strengthening into the 950s

[Keldeo1997]

Watch out SFL for this run.

[Ivanhater]

Moving just west of Key West



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[Keldeo1997]

Landfall just South of Tampa though Tampa does get the Eyewall.

[kevin]

It's that time of the year again. 06z GFS +282 hr, 961 mb hurricane almost directly into Tampa.