Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[JenyEliza]

I think it's time for FFC to wake up... no update in almost 5 hours???

FFC is notoriously slow about posting updates in fast changing winter wx situations where the solution isn't immediately at hand, or in situations where they just really aren't clear on what will happen. They're very risk averse.

At least that's my view.

[JenyEliza]

I'm at 31.5 and even my deck floor is icing over.

29.3

29 windchill
93 humidity
27 dewpoint

[ga_ben]

31.6 A little IP mixing in w/ ZR. So cold outside, even the politicians have their hands in their own pockets.

[JenyEliza]

Atlantans: Do you think we'll have school tomorow? Anyone willing to venture a guess? My kids are hoping for a day off...how about yours (if you have 'em)?

[JenyEliza]

31.6 A little IP mixing in w/ ZR. So cold outside, even the politicians have their hands in their own pockets.

[ga_ben]

Jen,

My GUESS on school closings in Atl. Metro area for tomorrow:

Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Dekalb, Forsyth, Hall, Cherokee, Bartow and points north and east of there

[JenyEliza]

Jen,

My GUESS on school closings in Atl. Metro area for tomorrow:

Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Dekalb, Forsyth, Hall, Cherokee, Bartow and points north and east of there

Sounds about right to me (also Fannin, Pickens, Gilmer, Union, Towns, Barrow, Dawson, etc--the standard ones who are usually the first to close).

However, I told my kids not to count on school being closed when they went to bed. I set their alarm clocks for regular time and told them if school was canceled overnight, I would turn them off and they could just sleep in.

We'll see how it goes.

Jen

[ga_ben]

I'm pretty sure a lot of schools will be closed now, maybe even Fayette, Douglas, Clayton, Coweta, Henry, Rockdale, Walton

Freezing Rain Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
112 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...

.A WEDGE OF COLD DRY AIR HAS BUILT DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
GEORGIA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

GAZ006>009-013-021-032-033-037-045>047-151415-
/O.CAN.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051215T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.ZR.Y.0001.051215T0612Z-051215T1800Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-CHEROKEE-COBB-NORTH FULTON-
OCONEE-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...DECATUR...CONYERS
112 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 10 AM
CHANGING THE FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN.

ICING ON TREES...POWER LINES AND EXPOSED SURFACES CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...BUT UNTIL THEN USE
EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/4 INCH TONIGHT IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[JenyEliza]

I'm pretty sure a lot of schools will be closed now, maybe even Fayette, Douglas, Clayton, Coweta, Henry, Rockdale, Walton

Freezing Rain Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
112 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...

.A WEDGE OF COLD DRY AIR HAS BUILT DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
GEORGIA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

GAZ006>009-013-021-032-033-037-045>047-151415-
/O.CAN.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051215T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.ZR.Y.0001.051215T0612Z-051215T1800Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-CHEROKEE-COBB-NORTH FULTON-
OCONEE-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...DECATUR...CONYERS
112 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 10 AM
CHANGING THE FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN.

ICING ON TREES...POWER LINES AND EXPOSED SURFACES CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...BUT UNTIL THEN USE
EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/4 INCH TONIGHT IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Looks like a school-closer to me.

I guess the question now is--will we have power in the morning? And will anyone's house be hit by falling tree tops?

[jkt21787]

Atlanta should have been upgraded to an ice storm warning. The amazing thing is FFC in their latest update said accumulations in the city would be under 1/4" (ice storm criteria).

Hartsfield as of the last update had already reported 1/4" of precip, most of it being ice. With the majority of the precip to the west, there is no doubt in my mind they will pass the above criteria, and probably will soon (if not already).

Hope all are taking this seriously. This was seriously downplayed by local mets (exception Ken Cook) and FFC from what I'm understanding, which I also hear is very typical for them.

[JenyEliza]

Atlanta should have been upgraded to an ice storm warning. The amazing thing is FFC in their latest update said accumulations in the city would be under 1/4" (ice storm criteria).

Hartsfield as of the last update had already reported 1/4" of precip, most of it being ice. With the majority of the precip to the west, there is no doubt in my mind they will pass the above criteria, and probably will soon (if not already).

Hope all are taking this seriously. This was seriously downplayed by local mets (exception Ken Cook) and FFC from what I'm understanding, which I also hear is very typical for them.

Completely typical. And yes, the accumulations are going to be greater than 1/4. I'm in NW suburbs and we've already got that much by now, with more freezing rain to move through before we warm up.

A LOT of Atlantans have been caught completely off guard. There were no lines at the grocery store tonight (I went), there was plenty of bread and milk on the shelves. There was absolutely ZERO warning for us...and so, many many people are going to find themselves in the dark with no heat, nothing to eat and peeved.

Major major bust by FFC and local OCMs, who've downplayed this "cold rain" event all week.

Jen

[jkt21787]

.30" of precip now at Hartsfield, with similar event totals coming in from other sites as well so far. Bottom line, we're exceeding ice storm criteria though many of these areas are still in an advisory.

The most amazing thing of the evening, again, for me, was the fact that FFC called for amounts less than 1/4" (reason they only have an advisory), and that was just one hour ago. It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

[JenyEliza]

.30" of precip now at Hartsfield, with similar event totals coming in from other sites as well so far. Bottom line, we're exceeding ice storm criteria though many of these areas are still in an advisory.

The most amazing thing of the evening, again, for me, was the fact that FFC called for amounts less than 1/4" (reason they only have an advisory), and that was just one hour ago. It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

They haven't updated the AFD since 6:30 pm. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/afd.php?pil=FFCAFDFFC

Not surprising to me...FFC is not reliable with ice events in Atlanta. They tend to downplay (like tonight), and then we get smacked hard.

[jkt21787]

.30" of precip now at Hartsfield, with similar event totals coming in from other sites as well so far. Bottom line, we're exceeding ice storm criteria though many of these areas are still in an advisory.

The most amazing thing of the evening, again, for me, was the fact that FFC called for amounts less than 1/4" (reason they only have an advisory), and that was just one hour ago. It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

They haven't updated the AFD since 6:30 pm. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/afd.php?pil=FFCAFDFFC

Not surprising to me...FFC is not reliable with ice events in Atlanta. They tend to downplay (like tonight), and then we get smacked hard.

Yeah, just absolutely horrid performance tonight by FFC. Since 841 PM EST, they have only issued one product, which was the WSW update. No NOWs, no AFDs, nothing else. Sorry you had this come upon you so fast and in this manner. I hope all stays well there tonight and maybe your power stays on. Report back to us when/if you can. Stay safe!

[JenyEliza]

.30" of precip now at Hartsfield, with similar event totals coming in from other sites as well so far. Bottom line, we're exceeding ice storm criteria though many of these areas are still in an advisory.

The most amazing thing of the evening, again, for me, was the fact that FFC called for amounts less than 1/4" (reason they only have an advisory), and that was just one hour ago. It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

They haven't updated the AFD since 6:30 pm. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/afd.php?pil=FFCAFDFFC

Not surprising to me...FFC is not reliable with ice events in Atlanta. They tend to downplay (like tonight), and then we get smacked hard.

Yeah, just absolutely horrid performance tonight by FFC. Since 841 PM EST, they have only issued one product, which was the WSW update. No NOWs, no AFDs, nothing else. Sorry you had this come upon you so fast and in this manner. I hope all stays well there tonight and maybe your power stays on. Report back to us when/if you can. Stay safe!

Will do.

I just looked at the radar loop. OH MY.

There's still much much more to come, I hadn't realized the massive size of this storm, or the amount of moisture coming our way.

This is just not good at all. I suppose there's not much we can do now about the situation, except just do our best to get thorugh it. I'm hoping and praying power will stay on and no large tree limbs or tree tops fall on our house (like they did in Jan 2000).

I really hate ice storms. Really.

I hate SURPRISE ice storms even more.

I'll keep posting as long as we have power (and I'm awake).

[Stormsfury]

I think it's time for FFC to wake up... no update in almost 5 hours???

FFC is notoriously slow about posting updates in fast changing winter wx situations where the solution isn't immediately at hand, or in situations where they just really aren't clear on what will happen. They're very risk averse.

At least that's my view.

I try never to berate official forecast agencies at all ... but FFC generally writes some of the poorest AFD's and are very very slow to catch on to cold air damming scenarios ...

[Stormsfury]

CAE has gone to a mixed bag of precip at 33º, and here in CHS -- cold light rain at 39º ... unfortunately for us here in the CHS area wanting wintry weather ... isn't gonna happen ... and aloft the flow is fairly strong from the SOUTH ... this area is outlined under a slight risk of SVR WX for Thursday ...

IF the coastal trough breaks the wedge along the coast on THURS, SVR WX would likely be a major concern with very strong directional wind shear profiles ... although, cool, stable boudnary layer air may prevent proper mixing of sfc winds ... but elevated convection whether this wedge breaks or not here along the inland coast seems to be a good bet.

Upstate SC has already seen an average of .1" of liquid equivalent all in the form of ZR and IP .. (Anderson, Greenville, Greenwood)

SF

[JenyEliza]

CAE has gone to a mixed bag of precip at 33º, and here in CHS -- cold light rain at 39º ... unfortunately for us here in the CHS area wanting wintry weather ... isn't gonna happen ... and aloft the flow is fairly strong from the SOUTH ... this area is outlined under a slight risk of SVR WX for Thursday ...

IF the coastal trough breaks the wedge along the coast on THURS, SVR WX would likely be a major concern with very strong directional wind shear profiles ... although, cool, stable boudnary layer air may prevent proper mixing of sfc winds ... but elevated convection whether this wedge breaks or not here along the inland coast seems to be a good bet.

Upstate SC has already seen an average of .1" of liquid equivalent all in the form of ZR and IP .. (Anderson, Greenville, Greenwood)

SF

WOW.....it's SF! I'm so glad to see you again! How ya been??

Jen

[JenyEliza]

I think it's time for FFC to wake up... no update in almost 5 hours???

FFC is notoriously slow about posting updates in fast changing winter wx situations where the solution isn't immediately at hand, or in situations where they just really aren't clear on what will happen. They're very risk averse.

At least that's my view.

I try never to berate official forecast agencies at all ... but FFC generally writes some of the poorest AFD's and are very very slow to catch on to cold air damming scenarios ...

I think they're going to catch hell for this one. Atlanta didn't prepare...heck, only the very far NE was supposed to be in on this....so most of NO. GA didn't prepare.

By the time they said we were in on the action, it was really too late to do much to get ready.

People are going to be P-O'd royally if they wake up in cold houses, no power and no food, no heat, and no firewood.

This is just not right the way they've handled it. Not right at all.

There is STILL no updated AFD. Not since 6:30 pm. Nearly nine hours into this event, and de nada from them. Unbelievable.

[JenyEliza]

THIS is what I have been using tonight to figure out what the heck is going on here.

Decidedly unhelpful. I'm in the "some accumulation" zone--and I've got more than 1/4" on my trees and other surfaces. Yeah...."some".