Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah and no body can forget about the amazing Februarys of the 1800s. Feb. 1895 was the host of the 20-30" Houston snowfall, and Feb. 1899 was when it got cold enough to freeze over galveston bay.

If I recall what I have read about this event correctly, Galveston Bay itself never froze over. A small portion of West Bay, in a section between the island and the mainland, partially froze over.

It would take quite a feat, much beyond even what happened in 1899, to actually freeze over Galveston Bay.

yes, that is true, I should have been more specific when I said "froze over", but any ice forming on the bay would be quite insane. also, if parts of the bay were frozen then I would be willing to bet big money that most every inland lake was frozen over, as well as most rivers. THAT would be a crazy sight in Texas. I have even read accounts of ice-skaters flocking to SE Texas lakes to skate...could you imagine? Houston; a winter destination!

[Extremeweatherguy]

well! the GFS has changed it's mind! It now has a massive arctic outbreak down into Texas starting Feb. 4th and lasting for many days. Looks like the peak would be on Feb. 6th. It gradually moves the arctic air into the SE too, so it looks like from Dallas to Savannah (if the GFS is right)...an arctic outbreak is on the way (although I still think it gets COLDER than the latest GFS suggests). In the shorter term the 12Z GFS still shows much needed rain in Texas this Saturday.

For a look at the GFS's new arctic outbreak in the 12Z run, click the link below:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

[gboudx]

I have trouble jumping onto a GFS forecast that far out. It could be legit, or it could be Lucy teeing up the football again. Earlier in this thread, I remember predictions of the pattern change and arctic outbreak at 2 weeks. From the time the thread started, that would be 1/31-2/2. As always with the weather, I guess we'll see.

[jasons2k]

yeah and no body can forget about the amazing Februarys of the 1800s. Feb. 1895 was the host of the 20-30" Houston snowfall, and Feb. 1899 was when it got cold enough to freeze over galveston bay.

If I recall what I have read about this event correctly, Galveston Bay itself never froze over. A small portion of West Bay, in a section between the island and the mainland, partially froze over.

It would take quite a feat, much beyond even what happened in 1899, to actually freeze over Galveston Bay.

yes, that is true, I should have been more specific when I said "froze over", but any ice forming on the bay would be quite insane. also, if parts of the bay were frozen then I would be willing to bet big money that most every inland lake was frozen over, as well as most rivers. THAT would be a crazy sight in Texas. I have even read accounts of ice-skaters flocking to SE Texas lakes to skate...could you imagine? Houston; a winter destination!

That would be most extreme if accurate.

It was a pretty huge deal in 1930 when Lake Worth (near Fort Worth) froze over. Just as a reference Lake Worth is a pretty small lake compared to most reservoirs we have now.

None of the lakes here in SE Texas existed in 1899. Only Caddo lake, which is the only natural lake in the state of Texas, existed then. Caddo Lake is located in Northeast Texas near Marshall. All other lakes in Texas are manmade reservoirs (built since 1900) so I don't know where all those people were flocking to ice skate or where those "accounts" came from

[Portastorm]

Whether the gfs sees it or not I see it. The cold air in Alaska and western Canada is something that hasn't been there this winter. I think its coming down based on the ensembles.

Exactly!

The ensembles, like the medium range operational models (GFS, Euro), are merely tools. When you use them in conjunction with other factors (building cold in Alaska, historically observed trends) you can get a better sense of what the actual weather may be like.

Have the ensembles teased us? Heck yeah. JB yesterday on his videos showed how far out to lunch they were for the NE US this week from ensemble runs about 10 days ago. Therefore, they could be out to lunch for next week and beyond ... HOWEVER ... if taken in context with the aforementioned factors, you might see how the actual pattern may change.

The upper air patterns appear to be setting up for a discharge of very cold air into the continental US around Feb 1st or slightly thereafter. In addition, the southern jet will remain active and somewhat displaced to the south. That is why some folks are starting to suggest a colder-and-stormier pattern developing for the first two weeks of Feb.

As AFM and Jeff have said in previous posts ... SOMEONE is going to get this cold air. Question is who? No clear answers yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah and no body can forget about the amazing Februarys of the 1800s. Feb. 1895 was the host of the 20-30" Houston snowfall, and Feb. 1899 was when it got cold enough to freeze over galveston bay.

If I recall what I have read about this event correctly, Galveston Bay itself never froze over. A small portion of West Bay, in a section between the island and the mainland, partially froze over.

It would take quite a feat, much beyond even what happened in 1899, to actually freeze over Galveston Bay.

yes, that is true, I should have been more specific when I said "froze over", but any ice forming on the bay would be quite insane. also, if parts of the bay were frozen then I would be willing to bet big money that most every inland lake was frozen over, as well as most rivers. THAT would be a crazy sight in Texas. I have even read accounts of ice-skaters flocking to SE Texas lakes to skate...could you imagine? Houston; a winter destination!

That would be most extreme if accurate.

It was a pretty huge deal in 1930 when Lake Worth (near Fort Worth) froze over. Just as a reference Lake Worth is a pretty small lake compared to most reservoirs we have now.

None of the lakes here in SE Texas existed in 1899. Only Caddo lake, which is the only natural lake in the state of Texas, existed then. Caddo Lake is located in Northeast Texas near Marshall. All other lakes in Texas are manmade reservoirs (built since 1900) so I don't know where all those people were flocking to ice skate or where those "accounts" came from

well first off, if it is cold enough to freeze over parts of a HUGE bay that has current, then it would surely be cold enough to freeze over any smaller bodies of water such as lakes, rivers and streams (yes, streams and rivers were around in 1899). Also, upon further research online I found that Caddo lake is the largest natural lake in Texas...but not the only. Yes, there are relatively few, and the rest are probably small and pond-like, but they did exist.

Here is a site that mentions lakes(need to scroll down to the lakes section):
http://www.lnstar.com/mall/texasinfo/texas.htm

and here is an exerpt from that site:

Texas has relatively few natural lakes but hundreds of artificial ones. These were developed to provide hydroelectricity, to store water, or to irrigate farmland. Among the largest are Lake Texoma (partly in Oklahoma) on the Red River, the Falcon and Amistad reservoirs on the Rio Grande, Sam Rayburn Reservoir on the Angelina River in eastern Texas, Lake Texarkana on the Sulphur River, Toledo Bend Reservoir on the Sabine, Lake Travis on the Colorado, and Lake Livingston on the Trinity River north of Houston.

**Note it says relatively few...not Texas has one natural lake**

ALSO:

Here is a great site that mentions the extreme cold outbreaks of the 1800s in Texas. It also mentions the ice skating (which was actually in 1895, not 1899..though it may have happened then too). The ice skating was actually on sabine pass too, not lakes:

http://www.wtblock.com/wtblockjr/ice.htm

[jasons2k]

yeah and no body can forget about the amazing Februarys of the 1800s. Feb. 1895 was the host of the 20-30" Houston snowfall, and Feb. 1899 was when it got cold enough to freeze over galveston bay.

If I recall what I have read about this event correctly, Galveston Bay itself never froze over. A small portion of West Bay, in a section between the island and the mainland, partially froze over.

It would take quite a feat, much beyond even what happened in 1899, to actually freeze over Galveston Bay.

yes, that is true, I should have been more specific when I said "froze over", but any ice forming on the bay would be quite insane. also, if parts of the bay were frozen then I would be willing to bet big money that most every inland lake was frozen over, as well as most rivers. THAT would be a crazy sight in Texas. I have even read accounts of ice-skaters flocking to SE Texas lakes to skate...could you imagine? Houston; a winter destination!

That would be most extreme if accurate.

It was a pretty huge deal in 1930 when Lake Worth (near Fort Worth) froze over. Just as a reference Lake Worth is a pretty small lake compared to most reservoirs we have now.

None of the lakes here in SE Texas existed in 1899. Only Caddo lake, which is the only natural lake in the state of Texas, existed then. Caddo Lake is located in Northeast Texas near Marshall. All other lakes in Texas are manmade reservoirs (built since 1900) so I don't know where all those people were flocking to ice skate or where those "accounts" came from

well first off, if it is cold enough to freeze over parts of a HUGE bay that has current, then it would surely be cold enough to freeze over any smaller bodies of water such as lakes, rivers and streams (yes, streams and rivers were around in 1899). Also, upon further research online I found that Caddo lake is the largest natural lake in Texas...but not the only. Yes, there are relatively few, and the rest are probably small and pond-like, but they did exist.

Here is a site that mentions lakes(need to scroll down to the lakes section):
http://www.lnstar.com/mall/texasinfo/texas.htm

and here is an exerpt from that site:

Texas has relatively few natural lakes but hundreds of artificial ones. These were developed to provide hydroelectricity, to store water, or to irrigate farmland. Among the largest are Lake Texoma (partly in Oklahoma) on the Red River, the Falcon and Amistad reservoirs on the Rio Grande, Sam Rayburn Reservoir on the Angelina River in eastern Texas, Lake Texarkana on the Sulphur River, Toledo Bend Reservoir on the Sabine, Lake Travis on the Colorado, and Lake Livingston on the Trinity River north of Houston.

**Note it says relatively few...not Texas has one natural lake**

ALSO:

Here is a great site that mentions the extreme cold outbreaks of the 1800s in Texas. It also mentions the ice skating (which was actually in 1895, not 1899..though it may have happened then too). The ice skating was actually on sabine pass too, not lakes:

http://www.wtblock.com/wtblockjr/ice.htm

Well, from Texas Parks and Wildlife:

"This lake was the only natural lake in Texas until it was artificially dammed in the early 1900's when oil was found and for flood control in 1914."

http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/spdest/find ... addo_lake/

"Caddo Lake is unlike any other lake in the state. It’s the only lake with an honest history because it is the only honest lake in Texas, having formed naturally sometime during the 19th century."

http://www.texasobserver.org/showArticl ... cleID=1991

[gboudx]

FWIW, Accuweather forecast for my area on the night of Feb 3, has rain mixing with sleet, snow and freezing rain. Any bets on if this changes by tomorrow?

[jasons2k]

FWIW, Accuweather forecast for my area on the night of Feb 3, has rain mixing with sleet, snow and freezing rain. Any bets on if this changes by tomorrow?

I'm sure it will. AccuWX "forecasts" that far out are just GFS numbers and pops. No thought put into them whatsoever.

[Tyler]

well! the GFS has changed it's mind! It now has a massive arctic outbreak down into Texas starting Feb. 4th and lasting for many days. Looks like the peak would be on Feb. 6th. It gradually moves the arctic air into the SE too, so it looks like from Dallas to Savannah (if the GFS is right)...an arctic outbreak is on the way (although I still think it gets COLDER than the latest GFS suggests). In the shorter term the 12Z GFS still shows much needed rain in Texas this Saturday.

For a look at the GFS's new arctic outbreak in the 12Z run, click the link below:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

Is there any ensemble support for this? I haven't looked....

Looking at the GFS face value at 200 hours + can be a bit foolish, however, you can use it to follow trends. I think the general consensus is that the coming days of February could be really cold.

[southerngale]

*looks for AFM*

[Brent]

It CONTINUES to be delayed...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It CONTINUES to be delayed...

not really. We have been saying the first week in February for the change to begin for a good 5-7 days now...and it is still expected in the first week of February. The COLDEST weather may lag behind the initial push of cold though and will probably come by mid Feb.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest from JB says that by Feb. 5th that most of the nation east of 100W will be in a pattern of normal or below normal temps. He also says that between Feb. 5th and 15th he is worried of a major arctic attack that would bring bone-rattling cold all the way south to Florida! He says that the cold snap that would reach Florida would also chill the plains. He says that February could reach December levels or even go beyond them. He says the worst of the weather will probably be between the 5th and 15th of Feb. Other good news is that he expects a stormier pattern to continue to build across the southern plains. sounds good to me!

[jasons2k]

Fla. has been pretty cold at times this year, at one time South Fl. was the only region below normal. I would not be surprised at all for that to happen there, but I'm not sold yet on it coming down the plains to TX.

[plainsman]

north texas and oklahoma have strange weather.. a reality check in early february should bring wintry weather to Dallas and oklahoma city accuweather has been hinting at a south plains winter storm okc dallas abilene tulsa all have snow sleet feb2 and 3rd.. we shall see.. this warmth will go away for the whole country for that matter soon....

[Tyler]

It CONTINUES to be delayed...

Um, no, not really. We have all been screaming a pattern change the first couple of days of February. Nothing has changed. Perhaps you misread something...

[Tyler]

latest from JB says that by Feb. 5th that most of the nation east of 100W will be in a pattern of normal or below normal temps. He also says that between Feb. 5th and 15th he is worried of a major arctic attack that would bring bone-rattling cold all the way south to Florida! He says that the cold snap that would reach Florida would also chill the plains. He says that February could reach December levels or even go beyond them. He says the worst of the weather will probably be between the 5th and 15th of Feb. Other good news is that he expects a stormier pattern to continue to build across the southern plains. sounds good to me!

Too good to be true? We shall see. I really do think that a major pattern change is in the works the first few days of February for a change to a much colder pattern for the US. Winter is not gone by a long shot, and I think many people will be suprised.

[gboudx]

Can y'all post the ensembles that suggest this pattern change? I see that the 18z long-range GFS is advertising an outbreak, but the more evidence the easier to buy into it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the latest Euro run CONTINUES to pump cold air into Alaska and Canada over the next week. It seems like we get more and more primed for a major outbreak of cold everyday.