Will New Orleans be hit by another major hurricane?

[Pearl River]

HurryKane wrote

I forgot to mention one other thing that hurts me: the awful traffic in Slidell. Yowza.

You don't have to tell me. I drive it every day.

The 108,000 homes is strictly New Orleans and no one else.

The good thing is the I-10 twin spans are open.

[MiamiensisWx]

I forgot to mention one other thing that hurts me: the awful traffic in Slidell. Yowza.

Yep... traffic has been nasty there. As Pearl River noted, it is good that the I-10 bridges are open.

[HurryKane]

HurryKane wrote

I forgot to mention one other thing that hurts me: the awful traffic in Slidell. Yowza.

You don't have to tell me. I drive it every day.

I figured you did and you have my sympathies.

The 108,000 homes is strictly New Orleans and no one else.

Yes, I know. There is still a fair difference between a flooded home and a home scattered over several miles.

The good thing is the I-10 twin spans are open.

Amen to that! Some folks are really bothered by the ah, closeness, of the metal portions but they didn't bother me that much...as long as people stay in their lane for those sections.

[Pearl River]

HurryKane wrote

Yes, I know. There is still a fair difference between a flooded home and a home scattered over several miles

Those figures came from the Bring Back New Orleans report.

Whether the home is in pieces or flooded to the rooftop it's damaged. My dad's house in south Slidell had 4 ft of water in it and it's 2 ft off the ground. I don't want to sound rude, because I'm not, but the only difference between my dad's house and one in pieces, is he won't have to pay for framing.

[HurryKane]

Sometimes the framing and the roof can mean a lot (emotionally and financially). And I imagine (hope) that things above the waterline in your father's home are still intact? You didn't sound rude and I hope that I have not either as that hasn't been my intention.

edit: by things, I mean personal belongings such as mementos, things stored in the attic, pictures, etc.

[Pearl River]

HurryKane. You didn't sound rude. He did lose everything, such as WWII medals and family history/heirlooms. But the big thing is, we still have him.

Ceiling and most of the roof intact. Other than that, everything gutted down to the 53 year old studs.

[HurryKane]

Oh no, I am so sorry to hear that about his treasures. Glad you still have him, and best of luck to you all in the recovery.

[Pearl River]

Thanks HurryKane. Same to y'all. I am definitely heartbroken about the coast. It definitely makes a grown man cry and I really mean that.

[Kennethb]

Will NO be hit by another major hurricane?

Even a slow moving or stationary Cat 1 such as Juan in 1985 could be a disaster for the recently repaired levees.

I don't wish for anyone else to take the storms this year or in the near future, but we in Louisiana have had our share for a long while.

[Steve]

>>For the record, I have friends who live in NOLA, Slidell, Pearl River, and all along the MS Gulf Coast. I've been in NOLA quite a bit since the storm hit--largely because the nightlife has been resurrected there and all there was on the MS coast has been wiped out. I know how bad it is there and how some parts have come back to life. And I will still maintain that the physical damage is far worse in Mississippi.

Not a chance. Maybe in the first look when you drive south of the railroad tracks and see the flatness and slabs. But then as you get above the tracks and see where the water washed through homes and businesses leaving many in tact (with possible structural faults), you start thinking of Lower St. Bernard and Lower Plaquemines Parish - which btw, were both wiped out. But when you get to New Orleans, or in my case parts of Metairie, and you realize that even though many homes are standing, they exist rotting in fully abandoned neighborhoods (zip codes even), then it just can't possibly compare. There are well over 200k damaged homes here with potentially 100k of them literally useless. My dad's house took 9' of water. We're almost finished gutting it. Yeah, the house is still standing but everything inside was completely ruined (unsure about the studs and such). Or you can get to my house which appears fine and dandy on the outside. But with 22" of water that sat for 2 weeks, that's all it took to rot everything inside of it and create mold stalagmites (!). So the question becomes one of numbers of structures and displacements and dollars of damage. No way MS or AL combined can compare. That was lost on Alabama Governor Riley, while in congressional testimony, attempted to compare Katrina with Ivan as if the two were even kin (although perhaps they were in Alabama with one side of the bay being hit in Ivan and the other in Katrina). Additionally, I spent 9/15-11/15 living on Dauphin Island. And I'll admit, it was in shreds and tatters. I drove Highway 90 a couple of times and was privy to damage in Long Beach and Pass Christian due to certain security clearances. But at that level, combining south Mobile County, Downtown Mobile near the River, and all of Jackson, Harrison and Hancock Counties along with wind damage further up, you might come to a few square miles of New Orleans. And once you realize 90% of everything north of the Interstate when you first hit civilization (Paris Road/510/Chalmette exit perhaps) all the way to the Orleans/Jefferson Parish line is uninhabitable, we're talking tens of thousands upon tens of thousands of houses. And then their is the other, human side of things, most of us share. In my case, my kids moved to SW NY State. I got to see them for Christmas and New Years. My two sisters are living together with all their kids. My dad lost everything and is living in Lafourche Parish with my nephew. My 2 brothers and their kids rent and got lucky. So outside of me, most of my family is relatively close by. But that's not the case with everyone around here. Many families have split up out of necessity or are living with friends and relatives on the outskirts or north of town. I think we technically still have something like 350,000 displaced residents, but with some FEMA trailers having been delivered, some people are back camping on their front lawns (like me).

Anyway, West End of New Orleans looks pretty much like coastal Hancock and Harrison Counties. All those old seafood restaurants have been reduced to slabs. We've got a lot more in common with one another with the exception of floodwaters with staying power. Ultimately, it's all of our problems in LA/MS and AL. I think some of the outskirts got short-changed in early coverage, but ultimately, the dollars of damage here will dwarf anything else. Whether many people return or businesses reopen and what neighborhoods will be condemned will determine how Louisiana gets out of this. My guess is that we alone will end up quadrupling the damage courtesy of Hurricane Andrew in Miami circa 1992, and including MS and Alabama, probably quintupling (rough estimates btw).

Hope everything is going good for you otherwise.

Steve

[Audrey2Katrina]

Have to agree with most of that, Steve. It is beyond a shadow of a doubt that the MGC was utterly devastated, especially close to the shoreline areas; but for all the horrific damage, it is not comparable to more than 130,000 homes all but destroyed in the New Orleans area--and that's a conservative estimate. On the other hand, try telling that to the guy, or gal, or family, in Mississippi who lost literally everything down to the slab of their house. They say all politics is local; and likewise one could add, all tragedy that hits home is worse. To those folks, on an individual basis, they see a replacement cost in terms of physical, financial, and emotional perspective that on a one-on-one is worse than many (but certainly not all) in New Orleans. On the overall picture, you are correct, the physical damage to the New Orleans area in sheer numbers pales all the other areas. This was a city that was once called the "Queen City of the South" and now it's mostly uninhabitable. I'm glad to hear that several of the MGC Casinos are already back up and running, as they need the revenues. While the French Quarter is pretty much back online as well, the horrors you have to drive through to get there make it anything but the pleasant ride it once was. In ALL ways, this was a catastrophe for the books, and I also agree it'll make Andrew's total damage look miniscule by comparison when all the financial data/losses are in.

A2K

[tornadochaser1986]

lets hope nmot but the way last season went anything is possible

[cajungal]

I don't know about this year. But, sooner or later it is a given. I hope not this year, but every year New Orleans creeps closer and closer to the Gulf of Mexico. New Orleans will always be vunerable to storm surge. If one day a hurricane hits Terrebonne Parish the flooding will be even more catostrophic than Katrina. A hit from the west is always worse.

[zoeyann]

That's what I was saying earlier in the thread cajungal. Comparing it to a Betsy like track. It is what we have always been told, but others bring up some very interesting discussions on the subject. I just did not know if you saw that, and thought you may be interested.

[Pearl River]

This link is to hypothetical Hurricane Pam. It is a worst case scenario for New Orleans. Unfortunately is does load slow.

http://www.nd.edu/~adcirc/pam.htm

[zoeyann]

Pearl, thanks for the link. I am having trouble though. I am not doubting the map or the experts who came up with it, I just want to make that clear. I'm am trying to understand, but sometimes when I ask things I am afraid that people will think that I am argueing when I am not.

Why do the areas west of this storm seem to flood when that did not happen for Katrina? What is the diiference between these storms that would make that happen?

[TSmith274]

Until we get adequate levees, every hurricane season will threaten the lives of thousands of Americans in New Orleans. I say we all stick together as a region, including Mississippi and Alabama. We're in this together, and we'll be in the same boat once again in the future. I would say that I'm mad at our government because of the lack of interest in building true cat 5 levees... blah blah blah... maybe if we'd have lost more than 1,300 lives, we'd be getting the help we need. But, I'm not mad. I support everyone in this region, no matter what state you're from.

[Audrey2Katrina]

because of the lack of interest in building true cat 5 levees... blah blah blah... maybe if we'd have lost more than 1,300 lives, we'd be getting the help we need. But, I'm not mad. I support everyone in this region, no matter what state you're from.

Well said TS; ever wonder if that Cat 3 reclassification has anything to do with justifying a level of protection deemed only necessary to meet those criteria! Just a thought.

A2K

[TSmith274]

because of the lack of interest in building true cat 5 levees... blah blah blah... maybe if we'd have lost more than 1,300 lives, we'd be getting the help we need. But, I'm not mad. I support everyone in this region, no matter what state you're from.

Well said TS; ever wonder if that Cat 3 reclassification has anything to do with justifying a level of protection deemed only necessary to meet those criteria! Just a thought.

A2K

Wow that's a damn good point. I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist.. but you have me thinking.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Same here, TS; and I'm sure others will vociferously disagree, but I maintain that it is an interesting prospect.

A2K