Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

[Dean4Storms]

This ain't no Bud Light!

Thats what we need for some names in the Atlantic Basin, fun names instead of Alberto, Beryl, Ivan and such.

[Jim Cantore]

Look how all that convection diminished overnight (literally)

[WindRunner]

Ummm . . . there isn't even an eye now (and hasn't been for almost 4 hours), and Carlotta's convection is significantly stronger than Bud's . . . looks like a TS on the IR. Wouldn't at all be suprised to see him reduced to 65kts at 11EDT advisory.

[Jim Cantore]

I wanna see a Fujiwhara

[cycloneye]

12/1200 UTC 15.2N 115.6W T4.5/4.5 BUD -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

I wanna see a Fujiwhara

In Japan you may see lots of them!!!!!

[Jim Cantore]

I wanna see a Fujiwhara

In Japan you may see lots of them!!!!!

Ivan and Joan, two EXTREMELY powerful super typhoons

[Jim Hughes]

That was quick. Go out for a few hours and it goes from 35kts to 65kts.

This EPAC spike should be of no surprise. The largest solar eruption/proton flare since last fall occured a few days earlier. The CME arrived but it was a dud. There were posts about this over at easternwx.com

These events increase corpuscular radiation. This then has an effect upon low pressure systems. I have talked about this before and I have given links to the Baranyi and Ludmany research articles.

I have also spoken before about how the MJO phase seems to dictate where the favorable relationship will be. This is just another example of how quickly things can turn around after certain space weather events occur.

[Brent]

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

SINCE ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE YESTERDAY...BUD HAS BEEN
UNDERGOING SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS EVIDENCED BY THE
VARIABILITY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. INFRARED IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH
THE HURRICANE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
REDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 85 KT. IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE
INTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN 24
HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS SO THE WINDOW
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL SOON CLOSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR WEAKENING THEREAFTER...HOWEVER IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE
THEN BOTH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

BUD CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 295/11. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FOUND
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE
STEERING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET OFFICE TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 15.7N 116.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 16.4N 118.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 17.5N 120.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.3N 125.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W 30 KT

[JonathanBelles]

I wanna see a Fujiwhara

whats that?

[Yarrah]

^^ It is explained here

[chadtm80]

12/1200 UTC 15.2N 115.6W T4.5/4.5 BUD -- East Pacific Ocean

odd.. Dosent look like 4.5 t numbers to me.. But then again I am a smuck

[HurricaneHunter914]

Bud is dwarfed by Carlotta.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

Now Carlotta is bigger than Florida!!

[Scorpion]

Wow! Carlotta is huge. Poor little Bud.

[Weatherfreak000]

I think I can with safety say the "Major Cat 4" predictions given earlier just aren't going to happen.

[Cyclenall]

I woke up and checked everything and everything is going the way I envisioned it. Bud didn't strengthen fast but did a little bit while he does his thing and TD4-E becomes a TS. Carlotta is very large this morning, Katrina size? If thing rapidly deepens, watch out! Bud should poke a new eye out sometime by the looks of him and he has gotten smaller for some reason. Now you look a Carlotta beside Bud and the difference is huge!

I will post more thoughts and items soon.

EDIT: Bud's eye will be coming out soon like I thought. I think it may have already done so during this hour. I would put him at 95 Knots currently. Also, the NHC said that if he gets a new eye, the strength will be bumbed up a little. I say more then a little since it's a important part of the storm. I don't think he will become a CAT4 at all but he just might get to Major status barely. I didn't put the % chance very high for him to become a major last night for a good reason. It looks like I made a good % that time.

[P.K.]

Carlotta is very large this morning, Katrina size?

Not really based on the 34kt wind radii.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.


By the way the image on the second post on this page is rather large (1.5MB).

[HurricaneHunter914]

P.K Look at the SAT. if you don't think this is a large TS then I don't know what is considered large to you.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[Cyclenall]

Very New % chance of this becoming:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 46%
Category 5 Hurricane: 2.1%

A deep convection ring is forming around the eye. That's a good sign for strengthening. That eye needs to get more organized though.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well there really isn't much of an cleared eye though, the eye needs to clear up if Bud wants to strengthen.