Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

[rockyman]

There is a good bit of curvature on the Key West radar...and some turning noted west of Key West...for the first time since it's been in radar range, this system is starting to look a little more organized.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[gatorcane]

There is a good bit of curvature on the Key West radar...and some turning noted west of Key West...for the first time since it's been in radar range, this system is starting to look a little more organized.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I would have to agree with you - looks like something is trhying to get organized and with SSTs VERY high in that area and the loop current waiting in the wings - it could get interesting...

[rockyman]

Low Level Voticity is very weak near Key West:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[HouTXmetro]

nope, that WSW wind is temporary due to a thunderstorm in the area....

Key West Radar showing numerous showers and storms in the Keys:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Agreed pressure is still rising in the area. Nothing to see here but some Thundershowers. Still bears watching though

[rockyman]

The Canadian (00z) likes the system:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/86.html

[HouTXmetro]

The Canadian (00z) likes the system:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/86.html

For NOLAS sake I hope that doesn't verify even though it would be nice to watch something in the Gulf.

[x-y-no]

There is a good bit of curvature on the Key West radar...and some turning noted west of Key West...for the first time since it's been in radar range, this system is starting to look a little more organized.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Yes, I've been noticing the wave getting sharper as the day goes on. No closed circulation yet, though.

[Frank P]

Low Level Voticity is very weak near Key West:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

not sure, I've looked at the bouys, radar and sat loops and surface plots and it still looks like a wave... nothing to indicate or even hint of any kind of west winds on the bottom of this thing .. yet.... radar shows the upper half of the circulation but nothing to indicate or hint of the circulation on the bottom half... at least from what I've looked at in the past 30 minutes or so... still showing more convection as the day progresses... hope it just keeps on drifting west....

[HouTXmetro]

Hey guys, got this info from another board

A large area of disorganized thunderstorms extending across the central and eastern Gulf associated with a large upper level low pressure area has now been identified as Tropical Disturbance 19. The heaviest thunderstorms right now are centered just to the south and west of the south Florida Coast, moving to the WNW at about 10 mph. Even though there has been no signs of organization, conditions are expected to become marginally favorable over the next few days and we do think there is a slight chance for tropical development as this system continues to move westward. Even if development does not occur, we do expect to see increasing thunderstorms with gusty winds spreading from east to west across the northern Gulf. We expect this disturbance to move inland across the Texas Coast on Sunday based on the latest steering current information.

Meteorologist: Fred Schmude
Impact Weather Inc

[beachbum_al]

The vis continues to look impressive regarding a general broad circulation developing in the S/SE/E/NE quadrants slight hints of banding. Does anyone have a link to the Bouys in that area?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

[teal61]

Low Level Voticity is very weak near Key West:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

not sure, I've looked at the bouys, radar and sat loops and surface plots and it still looks like a wave... nothing to indicate or even hint of any kind of west winds on the bottom of this thing .. yet.... radar shows the upper half of the circulation but nothing to indicate or hint of the circulation on the bottom half... at least from what I've looked at in the past 30 minutes or so... still showing more convection as the day progresses... hope it just keeps on drifting west....

Hey there Frank good to see ya back with us, hope things are getting better for ya.

Just looking at a close-up from that wonderful NASA site and there are hints of turning all over the eastern GOM. Just watched JB's latest video and he says there is some mid level turning near Key West( i would tend to agree that there could be some turning there) and a surface trough that extends nw from there. What I notice is there is some hint of low level turning about 100 miles or so west of Tampa. Not a lot of thunderstorms there now but may be showing signs of a few more popping up just to the east. The question is will this be able to organize a little better as it moves slowly off tho the west. Upper levels don't seem to be too terribly hostile right now.

[skysummit]

From the 2:05 Disco:


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS IN THE W BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 29N86W 26N83W
23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the only good news about this system is that if it develops it will likely be a very small system (thus affecting less people).

[tailgater]

The best pressure drops are well west of Fla. and best turning along trough. Pressure drops maybe due to Bermuda high backing off.

[gatorcane]

From the 2:05 Disco:


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS IN THE W BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 29N86W 26N83W
23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

yep here we go folks

[beachbum_al]

From the 2:05 Disco:


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS IN THE W BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 29N86W 26N83W
23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

So does this mean that maybe we should be on alert along the Gulf Coast from TX to FL?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey guys, got this info from another board

A large area of disorganized thunderstorms extending across the central and eastern Gulf associated with a large upper level low pressure area has now been identified as Tropical Disturbance 19. The heaviest thunderstorms right now are centered just to the south and west of the south Florida Coast, moving to the WNW at about 10 mph. Even though there has been no signs of organization, conditions are expected to become marginally favorable over the next few days and we do think there is a slight chance for tropical development as this system continues to move westward. Even if development does not occur, we do expect to see increasing thunderstorms with gusty winds spreading from east to west across the northern Gulf. We expect this disturbance to move inland across the Texas Coast on Sunday based on the latest steering current information.

Meteorologist: Fred Schmude
Impact Weather Inc

great...

just what the TX coast doesn't need. More rain.

[gatorcane]

Hey guys, got this info from another board

A large area of disorganized thunderstorms extending across the central and eastern Gulf associated with a large upper level low pressure area has now been identified as Tropical Disturbance 19. The heaviest thunderstorms right now are centered just to the south and west of the south Florida Coast, moving to the WNW at about 10 mph. Even though there has been no signs of organization, conditions are expected to become marginally favorable over the next few days and we do think there is a slight chance for tropical development as this system continues to move westward. Even if development does not occur, we do expect to see increasing thunderstorms with gusty winds spreading from east to west across the northern Gulf. We expect this disturbance to move inland across the Texas Coast on Sunday based on the latest steering current information.

Meteorologist: Fred Schmude
Impact Weather Inc

great...

just what the TX coast doesn't need. More rain.

I don't like anything that goes over the GOM loop current - look what happened with Alberto

[HouTXmetro]

the only good news about this system is that if it develops it will likely be a very small system (thus affecting less people).

If it gets going doesn't have potential to blossum into a a large system? Not neccesarily in intensity but coverage?

[gatorcane]

the only good news about this system is that if it develops it will likely be a very small system (thus affecting less people).

If it gets going doesn't have potential to blossum into a a large system? Not neccesarily in intensity but coverage?

if the conditions are right then it could blossom into something quickly....