99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#141 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:03 pm

Good evening, everyone. I agree this disturbance does look impressive this evening. The last visible imagery did indicate at least a mid-level spin. While the wave has had convection for the past day or two, that convection has not been organized near any mid-level spin. That's the difference tonight. As I watch the IR loop, convection appears to be centered a bit west of the mid-level spin, an indication of shearing. Also, new convection is firing out ahead of the system, not necessarily good for development.

Upper-level conditions in its path aren't extremely favorable for development. Being so far south might help it avoid the shear a bit. So my thoughts are that it may have a decent shot at becoming a TD in the next day or so, perhaps 30-40%. That's higher than I'd typically go initially on an invest. Was hoping to have this weekend off, but such luxuries will be rare in the coming months.

Long-term, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that a front may move off the east U.S. Coast toward the middle of next week. That may nudge the Bermuda High far enough eastward to allow for a northwesterly turn by the time the system reaches the eastern Caribbean. The stronger it gets by then, the better the chance it may turn NW and possibly pass off the east U.S. Coast around August 5th-6th. But such a track is by no means a guarantee. The Gulf certainly isn't out of the woods.

But first let's see if the disturbance can get its act together over the next 24 hours or so. It's possible that the convection may die out by tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath on that possibility. We shall see.

shaggy · #142 Postby **shaggy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:03 pm

where can i find a T-number for this system or does it have that yet?

#143 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:03 pm

ncdowneast wrote:where can i find a T-number for this system or does it have that yet?

Right here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Don't see it listed yet.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #144 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:03 pm

There looks to be a large LLC starting to develop...The convection is slightly to the west of the center which is around 32 west. Meaning there is some eastly shear. But overall this looks very good.

#145 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:04 pm

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

#146 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:06 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There looks to be a large LLC starting to develop...The convection is slightly to the west of the center which is around 32 west. Meaning there is some eastly shear. But overall this looks very good.

Could well be. But, as always, careful trying to discern an LLC on such a system using IR imagery. For the most part, you're looking at clouds well above the surface. Have to be able to see those tiny cumulus clouds 1000-2000 feet above the surface to see an LLC, and those clouds don't show up well, if at all, on IR.

#147 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:06 pm

More models from CSU.

Extremeweatherguy · #148 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:06 pm

drezee wrote:A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

10:30pm TWO looks even more encouraging for development.

WindRunner · #149 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:07 pm

It is impressive to say the least, but we have to remember that (on the sat image) there isn't a very distinctive circulation, if one is present at all. And we all know that a circulation is kind of nice to have when a system is trying to get classified.

And yes, that means I don't see what Matt is saying about a LLC at 32W. Maybe something mid-levels, but no LLC.

HurricaneHunter914 · #150 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:07 pm

Shear has always been the problem for every single wave this year. It doesn't matter how moist the air is, the shear will always get to the system.

Extremeweatherguy · #151 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:07 pm

bvigal wrote:More models from CSU.

looks like this will at least reach the caribbean. Then, after that we will see if wxman's idea of a northward turn plays out. If not, the U.S. is in trouble (possibly).

#152 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:10 pm

I vote for it to just die! Go away! We don't want "your kind" in the Atlantic Basin! Go play in the Pacific! ;-)

With that, I'll say good night. Better get rested for a two week stretch at work.....

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #153 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There looks to be a large LLC starting to develop...The convection is slightly to the west of the center which is around 32 west. Meaning there is some eastly shear. But overall this looks very good.

Could well be. But, as always, careful trying to discern an LLC on such a system using IR imagery. For the most part, you're looking at clouds well above the surface. Have to be able to see those tiny cumulus clouds 1000-2000 feet above the surface to see an LLC, and those clouds don't show up well, if at all, on IR.

I was looking at the Rsmas night time Ir which shown lower clouds moving into it at the lower levels. This system is looking very good. I also see maybe some dry air trying to get pulled into it. If that doe's not get into it then we may have something.

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:14 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

This bouy located at 14.6n-46w will be very important to see the data when the system gets closer.

#155 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:16 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
drezee wrote:A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
10:30pm TWO looks even more encouraging for development.

wow that TWO doesn't look good at all....looks like we will see development soon :eek:

Cyclenall · #156 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:17 pm

Can someone post the Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule for the Atlantic or at least the link to it?

#157 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:18 pm

I think we see Chris in the making here. Starting to see UL cyclonic outflow nd persistant convection. TD come tomorrow and gradual strengthening in the cards as there isn't enough shear to stop it.

As has been the case this year the likihood that the models have the front timed correctly next week is nothing to hang a hat on at this point. A day sooner or later could make the difference in everything.

#158 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:19 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Can someone post the Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule for the Atlantic or at least the link to it?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl.gif

Cyclenall · #159 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:22 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:Can someone post the Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule for the Atlantic or at least the link to it?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl.gif

Thanks. Nothing yet on that I see.

Derek Ortt · #160 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:23 pm

There is a surface circulation on the QS

99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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