99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #141 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:40 pm

Regardless of whether 99L becomes a TD on Saturday.. or even Sunday it still has PLENTY of time to develop. It's got the entire Caribbean Sea and potentially the GOM to go through.

wxmann_91 · #142 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:41 pm

mike815 wrote:Not to be rude but as jesse in here said this system in in a fairly moist enviroment right now and again this isnt going into SA imo.

We have different opinions and so disagree. I did say this isn't going to SA I believe.

WV: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

A moist envelope does exist on the eastern side, but to the north there is a lot of dry air being entrained into the circulation.

Website · #143 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:41 pm

It's got a nice structure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

#144 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:43 pm

Just because the NHC might say this disturbance "could" become a TD doesn't mean there is a good chance of that. I "could" win the lottery tomorrow, but it's not likely. 99L looked pretty good to me this morning, but it's moving so darn fast now that the convection is dissipating. That's good news. No TD tonight or tomorrow, most certainly. Maybe if it slows down in a few days. But there may not be much left by then.

I can still see a spin near 8.5N/42W, by the way. But no convection around it to speak of. No LLC, most likely, either.

mike815 · #145 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:43 pm

yes it does very good.

HurricaneHunter914 · #146 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:43 pm

Lets see if it can gain some convection overnight.

Derek Ortt · #147 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:44 pm

one request...

the TWO says could be a TD in a day or two. The thread headline makes it seem as if it says TD will form in a day or two

HurricaneHunter914 · #148 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:46 pm

Maybe it should be changed to "Possible TD in the next day or two".

boca · #149 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:46 pm

Just add "could" to the title so we can be politically correct.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #150 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:48 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Lets see if it can gain some convection overnight.

Yes. It will be interesting to see what 99L will look like tomorrow morning.

#151 Postby **brunota2003** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:48 pm

You know that the header only holds so much space? and as for the title, it seems fine to me...the TWO is saying it could be TD in day or two...the title says TD in a day or two...seems close enough to me...but thats IMO of course...

mike815 · #152 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:49 pm

I agree tim i dont think we need to discuss this any longer its really not a big deal. lol

Derek Ortt · #153 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:50 pm

No models showed Ivan coming within 300 miles of Grenada when it was at this latitude

Sometimes, all models tend to be wrong, and they tend to have a nroth bias for these waves at veyr low latitudes

boca · #154 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:55 pm

If the bermuda high remains strong and if this did develop into a depression or even Chris would it gain latitude or remain supressed to the south?

HurricaneHunter914 · #155 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:57 pm

Usually this should start a WNWesterly movement if it forms.

vacanechaser · #156 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:58 pm

boca wrote:If the bermuda high remains strong and if this did develop into a depression or even Chris would it gain latitude or remain supressed to the south?

it would stay south... the weaker the ridge, it would allow it to turn into a weakness and move more north....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Emmett_Brown · #157 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:59 pm

Looking elongated and diffuse. Upper level pattern over the next 48 hours is not ideal. I think this one is another warm up for the real deal in a few weeks. This one could easily end up as a Pacific storm. The only really noteworthy thing about this wave is that it persisted without poofing until now.

HurricaneHunter914 · #158 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:00 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Usually the convection should be increasing by now, but instead the convection is continuing a small decreasing trend

boca · #159 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:00 pm

The reason why I bring the track up is when Katrina was predicted to hit Southern Palm Beach County then took a SW track across the state due to strong high pressure forcing it that why. Why wouldn't 99L behave the same way if it developed?

Weatherfreak000 · #160 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:04 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Usually the convection should be increasing by now, but instead the convection is continuing a small decreasing trend

Not exactly, the convective pattern of the system was becoming a tad elongated and the convection was waning at this time yesterday. If it picks up some it may be a little bit later.

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Who is online