Tropical Storm Chris

#141 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:41 am

Welcome back CG! Say hello to Chris....let's hope it remains a distant relationship.

#142 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:44 am

If it maintains and clears the DR, I'd guess TS Chris has a good chance of becoming a 'cane. Thoughts anyone?

DESTRUCTION5 · #143 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:45 am

I think were looking at Chris going to the Hurricane Graveyard along with Debbie...Mountians kill...

#144 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:46 am

That's IF it passes over the mountains. If it doesn't, it could very well get in a favorable environment for development like Discussion #3 states.

HouTXmetro · #145 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:46 am

Is it an illusion or is Chris moving more Westward?

#146 Postby **drezee** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:48 am

CHRIS RADAR:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Nice banding

Extremeweatherguy · #147 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:49 am

The latest forecast track is eerily similar to that of Rita (as it looks like it might go under FL). I really hope we do not see a repeat of something like that.

TheBurn · #148 Postby **TheBurn** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:50 am

senorpepr wrote:
TheBurn wrote:Can anyone let me in on why DELTA?

Tropical Storm DELTA Forecast Discussion

The bulletins are set up for five storms.

Storm one is assigned bulletin one and so on. Storm six is also assigned bulletin one, with storm seven as bulletin two, etc.

Delta was the last storm to use bulletin three.

The future TD 04L (whenever that comes) will use the same bulletin that Epsilon used.

Gracias!

Scorpion · #149 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:50 am

I sure hope this doesn't strengthen before it affects Puerto Rico. I have alot of family there.

HouTXmetro · #150 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:51 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The latest forecast track is eerily similar to that of Rita (as it looks like it might go under FL). I really hope we do not see a repeat of something like that.

Xtreme I doubt and couldn't fathom this thing getting that far West. I'll say N central/East Gulf. Some kind of weakness will have developed by then.

ConvergenceZone · #151 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:53 am

Well, the latest advisory says that this storm can still very well dissipate as the models are all projecting within 5 days... What we saw this morning might just be a temporary increase and it may decrease or stay around the same strength from here. Latest advisory also mentions the shear starting to already effect the North part of it.

I'm more interested in the waves coming off Africa myself, but I'll save that for another thread....

Scorpion · #152 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:53 am

On a side note, my cruise leaves for the Bahamas from Port Canaveral on August 6. Looks like that will be in jeopardy if the system is where the NHC says it will be on that date.

Extremeweatherguy · #153 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:54 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The latest forecast track is eerily similar to that of Rita (as it looks like it might go under FL). I really hope we do not see a repeat of something like that.

Xtreme I doubt and couldn't fathom this thing getting that far West. I'll say N central/East Gulf. Some kind of weakness will have developed by then.

I hope so, but if Rita could make it all the way to the TX/LA border, I don't see why this one doesn't have a chance too. All I know is that I will not stop watching it until I know for sure I will not feel the impacts down the road. With a strong ridge expected to be to it's north, it is too early to let our guard down.

DESTRUCTION5 · #154 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:55 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The latest forecast track is eerily similar to that of Rita (as it looks like it might go under FL). I really hope we do not see a repeat of something like that.

Xtreme I doubt and couldn't fathom this thing getting that far West. I'll say N central/East Gulf. Some kind of weakness will have developed by then.

Agree..This will have some serios fights ahead of it to even get to the 5 day position

ConvergenceZone · #155 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:55 am

Canelaw99 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:60 mph in the Bahamas before Florida. IMO with everything that occured last year and 2004 Floridia media is gonna be all over this.

The media here would be all over this except for all the mess going on in Cuba right now. That has taken precedence over everything else. Thankfully the NHC isn't forecasting this to become a hurricane or some people would be taken by surprise at this one.

Well, not sure the media would be all over this at the moment since it's not expected to do much at this time. It's now showing any signs of strengthening

boca · #156 Postby **boca** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:55 am

That path is just too straight.I'm sure that path will change due to the complicated weather pattern with the ULL.

jabber · #157 Postby **jabber** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:55 am

We should all have a better idea after recon today as well as after the NOAA flight this evening. I think tomorrow will be the key day.

cheezyWXguy · #158 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:56 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Well, the latest advisory says that this storm can still very well dissipate as the models are all projecting within 5 days... What we saw this morning might just be a temporary increase and it may decrease or stay around the same strength from here. Latest advisory also mentions the shear starting to already effect the North part of it.

I'm more interested in the waves coming off Africa myself, but I'll save that for another thread....

no, the northerly shear has been around the area for the past 3 days...I think 60-65 mph in 5 days is a pretty good bet.

#159 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:56 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:60 mph in the Bahamas before Florida. IMO with everything that occured last year and 2004 Floridia media is gonna be all over this.

The media here would be all over this except for all the mess going on in Cuba right now. That has taken precedence over everything else. Thankfully the NHC isn't forecasting this to become a hurricane or some people would be taken by surprise at this one.

Well, not sure the media would be all over this at the moment since it's not expected to do much at this time. It's now showing any signs of strengthening

I think you may want to read the latest storm discussion talking about possible further strengthening.....also, the latest forecast no longer weakens it.

x-y-no · #160 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:58 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Well, the latest advisory says that this storm can still very well dissipate as the models are all projecting within 5 days... What we saw this morning might just be a temporary increase and it may decrease or stay around the same strength from here. Latest advisory also mentions the shear starting to already effect the North part of it.

I'm more interested in the waves coming off Africa myself, but I'll save that for another thread....

I'm not buying what the globals say right now - none of them initialized this system correctly.

Let's see what tomorrow's 12Z runs have to say - they'll have the data from tonight's NOAA flight.

Tropical Storm Chris

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