Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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Damar91
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#141 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:55 pm

bob rulz wrote:Meh, he's just trying to mess with people's minds I'll bet...


The wobble alerts. Lighten up!
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#142 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:10 pm

Damar91 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:Meh, he's just trying to mess with people's minds I'll bet...


The wobble alerts. Lighten up!


I am lightened up. I'm just failing to see what's funny...?
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#143 Postby NONAME » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:12 pm

Ships Strengthing 93L more and models moving south and taking it into the Gulf

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060817 1800 060818 0600 060818 1800 060819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.5N 79.2W 30.3N 81.0W 29.2N 83.6W 28.4N 86.5W
BAMM 31.5N 79.2W 30.8N 80.8W 30.0N 82.7W 29.1N 84.7W
A98E 31.5N 79.2W 30.8N 80.3W 29.7N 81.4W 28.4N 82.4W
LBAR 31.5N 79.2W 30.6N 80.5W 30.3N 82.2W 30.0N 84.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060819 1800 060820 1800 060821 1800 060822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.8N 89.3W 27.0N 94.8W 26.9N 100.6W 27.4N 106.1W
BAMM 28.5N 86.8W 27.4N 91.0W 26.9N 96.2W 27.2N 101.3W
A98E 27.2N 83.5W 25.5N 86.2W 25.4N 89.3W 26.4N 92.4W
LBAR 29.9N 86.5W 29.7N 90.3W 29.7N 93.8W 29.8N 96.6W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.5N LONCUR = 79.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 32.4N LONM12 = 78.1W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 32.3N LONM24 = 76.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#144 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:14 pm

bob rulz wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:Meh, he's just trying to mess with people's minds I'll bet...


The wobble alerts. Lighten up!


I am lightened up. I'm just failing to see what's funny...?


Never mind! Those that have been around here a while know why that posting about wobble alerts is funny. Next......
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#145 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:20 pm

Damar91 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:Meh, he's just trying to mess with people's minds I'll bet...


The wobble alerts. Lighten up!


I am lightened up. I'm just failing to see what's funny...?


Never mind! Those that have been around here a while know why that posting about wobble alerts is funny. Next......


Besides, I do not think a disturbance can wobble anyway.
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#146 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:22 pm

:sick:
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#147 Postby tailgater » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:27 pm

Stormavoider wrote:It's getting interesting here.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1

Interesting
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1
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#148 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:28 pm

tailgater wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:It's getting interesting here.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1

Interesting
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1


That station anemometer is 34m up. So the winds are probably not as strong at the surface.
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#149 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:35 pm

Quickscat shows a closed LLC...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html
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#150 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:36 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Quickscat shows a closed LLC...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html


I don't think there's any doubt there's been a closed LLC. It's just that TPC wants winds of 30mph sustained or more to start advisories.
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#151 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:38 pm

The system looks ot be drifting slowly southward(The LLC). This has a very well defined LLC. Looks better then tropical depression 7 2003. I can't believe they won't upgrade. My feelings are that the convection keeps building over the center...With a new burst forming right now. I feel that there is at least 25 knot winds over a large enough area to be upgraded. I believe this is a depression!
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#152 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:42 pm

Well, so much for this going poof today.
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#153 Postby jimpsummers » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:46 pm

I would think they have to consider upgrading it just to bring attention to it for the beach interests near Jacksonville. They will at least get some squally weather, not good for swimming, etc., and there's an outside chance it could strengthen overnight into a minor storm. Yesterday it wasn't going to bother anybody, so I think they made the best decision. It now appears as though it will make landfall tonight or early tomorrow, and could at least pose a danger to beach-goers.. I say make it TD4.
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#154 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:49 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The system looks ot be drifting slowly southward(The LLC). This has a very well defined LLC. Looks better then tropical depression 7 2003. I can't believe they won't upgrade. My feelings are that the convection keeps building over the center...With a new burst forming right now. I feel that there is at least 25 knot winds over a large enough area to be upgraded. I believe this is a depression!


It won't be upgraded now. It seems to be getting disorganzied on satellite imagery and on radar it's down to only a few thunderstorms just south of the center.
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#155 Postby curtadams » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:50 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Quickscat shows a closed LLC...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Looked better 2 days ago. This one's a bit ambiguous - I don't see a good SE wind.
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#156 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:52 pm

tailgater wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:It's getting interesting here.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1

Interesting
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1


R8, that's my second stop on the way to the gulf stream for a day of fishing. Probably not today or tomorrow though.
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#157 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:53 pm

Watching TWC, it's not impressive. Not expected to develop because of the shear.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#158 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:54 pm

Best looking none tropical depression I'v seen in a very long time. But hopefully they will add it at the end of the year.
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#159 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:59 pm

I can't believe this can have as strong of a LLC with out 30 to 35 knots winds....20 knots or below in much of the system you would not think would be enough. It was not enough for chris. Also your right the shear is increasing pushing the upper levels southward. Witth the surface to 500 millibar flow more or less west or west-southwest. The nhc not going to upgrade intill it can stack and form a area of 30 mph winds. Not much chance this is going to get any more developed.
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#160 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:00 pm

Even so theres likely a small area of 25 knot winds at 30 meters.
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