Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

[terstorm1012]

absolutely beautiful storm...!

[bombarderoazul]

Third major cane for the EPAC this season, it's been many years since we had a year with more than two majors.

[LAwxrgal]

Looks like the EPAC and Atlantic have switched places this year! Now they have the multiple majors... BTW Ileana is a gorgeous storm....classic in just about every way. Good thing that it appears she won't harm anyone.

[wxmann_91]

Not as classic as it could be. Without the dry air entrainment it's suffering through right now, easily Cat 4. It could be peaking already unless those stratocumulus could magically dissapear.

[cycloneye]

Not as classic as it could be. Without the dry air entrainment it's suffering through right now, easily Cat 4. It could be peaking already unless those stratocumulus could magically dissapear.

I agree about it peaking at 120 mph.

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232032
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ILEANA HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO
COOL AGAIN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 101 KT
FROM UW CIMSS AND CIRA RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED WITH 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...
102 KT FROM TAFB...AND 122 KT FROM THE UW CIMSS ADT. WHILE
CYCLONES AT THIS INTENSITY SOMETIMES DEVELOP A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...THIS HAS NOT YET BEEN SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
DESPITE AN APPARENT HALT TO INTENSIFICATION...ILEANA HAS ABOUT
12-24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR. ACCORDINGLY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHORT-TERM...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DEMISE THEREAFTER. IN
FACT...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 305/13. THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SLOWDOWN COULD
BE ESPECIALLY PRONOUNCED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE AT THE SAME TIME THE CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS CREATING DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AS THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DIFFER NOT ONLY IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN...BUT ALSO THE DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM AT DAYS 4
AND 5...WHICH WARRANTS A TURN TO THE WEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
SURPRISINGLY...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO
SUFFER FROM POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX STRENGTH AND
STRUCTURE...RESULTING IN A TRACK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.

REPORTS FROM A NEARBY STATION AT SOCORRO ISLAND...OPERATED BY THE
MEXICAN NAVY...INDICATED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 66 KT AROUND 1500 UTC. SIMILARLY...AN 1800 UTC REPORT FROM SHIP
DGGV IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS USEFUL IN DEFINING THE RADIUS
OF 12 FT SEAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 19.0N 112.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.8N 114.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 116.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.1N 117.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 118.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.2N 120.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[CrazyC83]

Still 120 mph. Nothing to suggest any disagreement in such. My prediction is coming up shortly.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

Ileana's rapid intensification spurt has ended and it appears an ERC may have taken place. While cloud tops have cooled, I don't see any long-term intensification processes coming up.

Current - 19.0/112.7 - 955mb - 120mph
12 hrs - 20.0/114.3 - 948mb - 125mph
24 hrs - 20.8/116.7 - 951mb - 120mph
36 hrs - 21.6/118.4 - 959mb - 105mph
48 hrs - 22.2/120.0 - 977mb - 85mph
60 hrs - 22.6/121.3 - 990mb - 65mph
72 hrs - 22.9/123.0 - 995mb - 50mph
96 hrs - 23.1/126.4 - 1003mb - 40mph
120 hrs - 23.3/129.8 - 1005mb - 30mph

[alan1961]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Spot the eye on Ileana..eye see it..hehe

[Cyclenall]

This hurricane looks like a monster. It's really large and the eye is finally stable after a while. It's round and big. I'd say the strength is at 110-115 knots. The models showed a powerful hurricane last week in the Epac and here we are now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2006 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 19:11:20 N Lon : 113:08:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.9mb/117.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -60.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Cat4. I agree this hurricane is perfect, the only thing that would keep it from being upgraded to cat4 is the cloud tops are not to cold.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2006 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 19:11:20 N Lon : 113:08:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.9mb/117.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -60.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Cat4. I agree this hurricane is perfect, the only thing that would keep it from being upgraded to cat4 is the cloud tops are not to cold.

[bombarderoazul]

This thing looks like a cat 4.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Because of the not so cold cloud tops I would say 110 to 115 knots.

[CrazyC83]

I'd set it at 135 mph (115 kt) personally right now.

[Cyclenall]

Because of the not so cold cloud tops I would say 110 to 115 knots.

That's just about the only thing missing for Ileana. If it had cold cloud tops, then a decent high-end category 4.

[Jim Cantore]

do we have an ERC going? I cant quite tell.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 240258
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 23 2006

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY COOLER INNER
CORE CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...AND A MORE DISTINCT...LESS
RAGGED...30 NMI EYE. WATER VAPORY IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED
OUTFLOW JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE THE COLDER CLOUD
TOPS RESIDE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES...WITH A CIRA AMSU-A ESTIMATE AT 102 KT...AND AN ADT
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 117 KT FROM CIMSS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS AT
105 KT. THERE STILL IS A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF FURTHER
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE
...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST COMMENCES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/12. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THE
18Z GFDL RUN HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON IT'S RAPID NORTHWARD
MOTION INTO THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS...NOW INDICATING A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEYOND DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST BY DAY 4...REFLECTING THE LOW-LAYER FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE SOCORRO ISLAND
OBSERVATION AND A CIRA/NESDIS AMSU-A TC SIZE ESTIMATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.4N 113.5W 105 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 21.2N 117.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 21.6N 118.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 121.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 22.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[wxmann_91]

Dry Air. Low end 3 IMO.

[Cyclenall]

That eye is so large and round and most of all, clear. That dry air needs to stop wrecking everything!!