TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

So cycloneye you think this system will recurve.

Disclaimer

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes,in my opinion,it will miss the Caribbean islands,but may pass close to Bermuda,In Terms of the East Coast of U.S,I dont see this system going that far west.

[rnbaida]

So cycloneye you think this system will recurve.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes,in my opinion,it will miss the Caribbean islands,but may pass close to Bermuda,In Terms of the East Coast of U.S,I dont see this system going that far west.

Well then why watch it? fish system are boring!!!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060903 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 1200 060904 0000 060904 1200 060905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 38.6W 15.7N 40.5W 17.4N 42.2W 19.0N 44.0W
BAMM 13.7N 38.6W 15.5N 40.8W 17.1N 42.8W 18.5N 45.1W
A98E 13.7N 38.6W 14.7N 40.7W 15.8N 42.8W 17.2N 44.7W
LBAR 13.7N 38.6W 15.5N 40.5W 17.4N 42.3W 19.4N 44.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 1200 060906 1200 060907 1200 060908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.6N 45.8W 23.0N 50.0W 24.7N 56.4W 26.1N 63.0W
BAMM 19.5N 47.3W 20.6N 51.6W 21.9N 56.8W 23.2N 61.8W
A98E 18.7N 46.6W 21.7N 51.4W 23.6N 57.0W 24.5N 62.8W
LBAR 21.3N 45.8W 25.1N 48.7W 27.6N 53.3W 29.2N 57.6W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 77KTS 86KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 77KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 38.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 36.9W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WmE]

So cycloneye you think this system will recurve.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes,in my opinion,it will miss the Caribbean islands,but may pass close to Bermuda,In Terms of the East Coast of U.S,I dont see this system going that far west.

Well then why watch it? fish system are boring!!!!

Nobody says that you've to watch it.

[rnbaida]

NOBODY on this entire board knows where this is going.... It could be a fish or it hit savannah...Right now people are just giving their ideas.

[Meso]

I`m not so sure this thing will be a fish... most model runs at 144 hours show the ridge building back... Chances are it probably will turn out.. but not really an easy dicission to make now... Infact the GFS has it staying below 30N and heading south of florida...

[cycloneye]

rnbaida,then you like to track systems that slam into a place and cause tragic events,instead of tracking a system that not bothers anyone?

[rnbaida]

why havnt all the models run this invest yet?

[cycloneye]

[hurricanefloyd5]

i think td late this morninbg or sometime this afternoon!!!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

The models appear to be shifting more westward, hopefully not another Frances.

[Derek Ortt]

time for more sleep until the D and D teenagers disappear

[ThunderMate]

Models are not pointing towards fish anymore so why all the fish talk???

[Mac]

It seems to me that landfall talk of any kind at this point (fish vs. Florida vs. any place else) is pure speculation this far out

[rnbaida]

It is really starting to look good now.

[WmE]

Too bad you're not interested in this storm!

[Brent]

This was posted in the 98L thread...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Run the loop.

[Meso]

It is... There is NO WAY to point out any storms landfall no matter where it is anything can happen. Personally I just state what models tend to show,though it shouldn't be taken as solid grounding for the storms track.Many things will change and models will shift,it's all part of tracking.And everyone should keep watching every system,especially this far out.. (although they should be watching it anyway for it's beauty). Also every storm is unique,one can't simply class all fish storms in one group and landfalling storms in another.. Each one has their own special "life" and will likely be rememberd for something it did..

[rnbaida]

Too bad you're not interested in this storm!

Right now I do think this will be a fish but that is only my opinion and I could be very wrong.... I am still intesrested in the storm.

[Thunder44]

This was posted in the 98L thread...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Run the loop.

It looks like it develops 98L instead of 90L. But it pulls 98L into it. Looking beyond that on the NCEP site, at 226 hrs it takes to the SE FLorida coast before recurving it back out to sea.