TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Weathermaster]

ROCK wrote:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png


getting little closer to PR, uh Luis....


No worries here.

Luis remember Hurricane Luis 1995, we think it was a fish and he almost hit us.

[Weathermaster]

Zardoz wrote:
cinlfla wrote:
...I believe the convection that's trying to build over the center is causing an illusion of a southward motion.

I don't know. Is it really just an illusion, or has Flo turned WSW? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I believe the center is re-organizing in 15.0N 50.0W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/2345 UTC 17.4N 48.5W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

[Derek Ortt]

center is near 17.4N and about 49.8W based upon IR-2 imagery

[Damar91]

Zardoz wrote:
cinlfla wrote:
...I believe the convection that's trying to build over the center is causing an illusion of a southward motion.

I don't know. Is it really just an illusion, or has Flo turned WSW? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I believe the center is re-organizing in 15.0N 50.0W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

If it's reorganizing there, Houston we have a problem. Don't think it's quite that far south though.

[cinlfla]

center is near 17.4N and about 49.8W based upon IR-2 imagery

If thats where the center is then what is that spinning at 15.0n

[Derek Ortt]

nothing is at 15N. Just clear skies at the coordinates you gave me

You may be misreadin the 17.5N line as 15N

[Weathermaster]

Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:12 pm Post subject:



Weathermaster wrote:
Quote:

Zardoz wrote:
cinlfla wrote:
...I believe the convection that's trying to build over the center is causing an illusion of a southward motion.

I don't know. Is it really just an illusion, or has Flo turned WSW? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html



I believe the center is re-organizing in 15.0N 50.0W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


If it's reorganizing there, Houston we have a problem. Don't think it's quite that far south though.

Is south of what we have been tracking, but this storm has not consolidated a define center yet, and any point inside the whole low could reform a center, including 15.0N

[cinlfla]

nothing is at 15N. Just clear skies at the coordinates you gave me

You may be misreadin the 17.5N line as 15N

Yep I messed up on that one, sorry I had a stupid moment. OK its passed now.

[Weathermaster]

Derek Ortt wrote:
nothing is at 15N. Just clear skies at the coordinates you gave me

You may be misreadin the 17.5N line as 15N



Yep I messed up on that one, sorry I had a stupid moment. OK its passed now.

Me too........

[Trugunzn]

50kt winds are shown. This is right around the time it started to blow convection. '

[Weathermaster]

It seems moving due west.....for how much time this shoud continue?

[wxmann_91]

Trugunzn,

Those are rain-contaminated wind barbs.

[Trugunzn]

Trugunzn,

Those are rain-contaminated wind barbs.

black are contaminated, but purple arnt

[Derek Ortt]

I think the rain flag is somewhat messed up

[wxmann_91]

Trugunzn,

Those are rain-contaminated wind barbs.

black are contaminated, but purple arnt

The only 50 kt barbs I see are black.

[Trugunzn]

Trugunzn,

Those are rain-contaminated wind barbs.

black are contaminated, but purple arnt

The only 50 kt barbs I see are black.

Do u see the purple?

[wxmann_91]

Purple's only 40-50 kt winds.

Sorry, I'm making a petty point here - carry on with the discussion folks. Mods, feel free to delete my posts.

[TampaFl]

Jeff Master's thoughts on Floreance & the early model runs;

The computer models all forecast that Florence will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, although it is too far in the future to be highly confident of this forecast. A complicating factor is the development of a new disturbance about 800 miles to the east-southeast. This new disturbance, officially designated "Invest 91L" this morning by NHC, is close enough to alter both the strength and track of TD 6. Anytime two storms get within 13 degrees of arc of each other (900 miles), the two storms tend to rotate around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect). The computer models do make some allowances for this effect, but are not very good at handling it. For this reason, one should be suspicious of the track and intensity forecasts for Florence and 91L as long as they are so close. The intensities of both storms can also change as a result of the interaction, with both storms intensifying at a slower rate than they otherwise would, or one storm growing at the expense of the other. If the two storms approach within about 7 arc-degrees of each other (480 miles), this is considered the "zone of death" where one cyclone will surely destroy the other. The surviving storm will not be a "superstorm" that has the combined size and strength of the two storms, however.

The long-range GFS model forecast continues to show Florence becoming a powerful hurricane that threatens Bermuda, but recurves out to sea well east of the U.S. East Coast. Again, it is too early to be confident of this forecast. Keep in mind that early model forecasts are often very unreliable. That is because the center is not well established and often relocates, and that subtle difference can make major
track changes. Also, the global models such as the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS represent a weak storm as a very diffuse entity, and that causes problems for the global models and the "zoomed in" models like the GFDL that use a global model (the GFS) as their starting points. Be wary of the track forecasts until the system becomes more established. Tomorrow morning we should have a better idea of the models' reliabilty, since Florence should be better established.

From Jeff Masters @ Weatherunderground.com

Link for above discussion:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=502&tstamp=200609

[skysummit]

208
WHXX01 KWBC 060040
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000 060907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 49.0W 18.5N 50.6W 19.6N 52.2W 20.8N 54.0W
BAMM 17.5N 49.0W 18.2N 50.6W 19.0N 52.1W 19.9N 53.6W
A98E 17.5N 49.0W 18.2N 50.9W 19.2N 52.8W 20.7N 54.7W
LBAR 17.5N 49.0W 18.6N 50.8W 19.9N 52.8W 21.2N 55.0W
SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 0000 060909 0000 060910 0000 060911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 55.9W 23.6N 59.5W 25.7N 62.7W 27.6N 64.6W
BAMM 21.0N 55.2W 23.2N 58.3W 26.2N 62.3W 28.6N 65.1W
A98E 22.0N 57.0W 24.3N 62.1W 26.3N 66.6W 26.8N 68.7W
LBAR 22.5N 57.2W 24.4N 61.9W 26.7N 65.6W 29.1N 66.8W
SHIP 69KTS 83KTS 92KTS 94KTS
DSHP 69KTS 83KTS 92KTS 94KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 46.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 44.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$