TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[wxman57]

So we are wanting the n turn to start to occour by 60 correct? otherwise ?

Don't look for any sharp turn. It'll be a very gradual bend to the right in the next 24-36 hours. Very slim chance of this coming anywhere close to the U.S. It's Bermuda-bound, perhaps just east of Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 081220
A. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 08/1131Z (74)
C. 22.2N/6
D. 58.0W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS -08/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.3 (IRREGULAR CDO)

CRUZ/WEAVER

Air Force Sat Estimates.

That position is exposed, southeast of the convection. It could be there. If so, it's very poorly-organized.

And they say (Irregular CDO).So the question comes,if this will it become a hurricane? Of course for Bermuda it would be great if that occurs.

[Aquawind]

Yep, this season has been one of the weakest I can ever remember in a long time. Sort of reminds me of 1982, and even then we had Hurricane Debby just about now as a cat 2 in 1982 getting close to Bermuda (as I can recall). If nothing changes during the next 5 to 10 days, then I doubt we'll get passed 10 storms this year.
But this break is very appreciated this year for the US.

I think you got the wrong thread..lol There are plenty of season over or not threads available. Were talking about a forecasted major threatening Bermuda at this point. Florence is slow in organizing fortunately. I am with ya though 10 or less would be something.

[wxman57]

Forence's wind field appears to have decreaed considerably in size as it moves away from the frontal system and strong high to the northeast. I'm showing a ship report of 20 kts just 260 miles NE of the center. That indicates that 34 kt winds are not extending 350nm NE of the center now, maybe closer to 150 nm. This indicates the true circulation of Florence was much smaller than the winds north of the front made it appear.

[Nimbus]

Overnight the convection was flaring over the center of the storm. Previously most of the convection has been displaced further east.

The water vapor imagery shows high pressure building back into the mid atlantic coast line. The short wave currently swinging down over the great lakes should help reinforce the north westerly flow. Florence seems pretty much on track.

[StormWarning1]

I think we will be able to see the center of Florence within the next hour. The convection to the northwest is moving away to the northwest on the visible loop I am running from the NRL fairly quickly, in fact, it may be partially exposed near 22.0and 58.2, we will see.
Is recon going in today still?

[Aquawind]

That sounds logical wxman57. Firgure now maybe it can consolidate over the center with less shear and influence from the frontal system and high pressure? I would think at some point Florence is going to organize.

[craptacular]

Is recon going in today still?

Recon is scheduled to take off from St Croix at 11:30 PM EDT tonight, and investigate the system from 12:30 AM to 4:00 AM EDT early Saturday morning.

[Aquawind]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061815 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT WED 06 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-099 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES
NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 08/1800Z. 3. REMARKS (ADDED) : A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST
OF A SUSPECT AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF
TIME 06/1900Z. COORDINATES 34.1N 76.7W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
TDY


I don't see anything verifying it today yet though..

[craptacular]

I don't see anything verifying it today yet though..

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 07 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-100

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FLORENCE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 24.2N 62.0W
E. 09/0430Z TO 09/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 39

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.

[Aquawind]

Dohh. Thanks

[CrazyC83]

It seems a partial eyewall is still trying to form, but there is nothing to show for it on one side. The dry air is pretty much gone.

[storms in NC]

So we are wanting the n turn to start to occour by 60 correct? otherwise ?

Don't look for any sharp turn. It'll be a very gradual bend to the right in the next 24-36 hours. Very slim chance of this coming anywhere close to the U.S. It's Bermuda-bound, perhaps just east of Bermuda.

In the 5am update they have it going W-NW for the next 24 hours that would but it near 70 not 70 but near. So how is this going to granual turn when they are call for another 24 hours of a W-NW track. So it would have to be a sharp turn. Just asking.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Sanibel]

Florence is stacked now and better organized (although in a flattened way). The center should start spinning up soon and strengthen.

Northward is when this thing gets good symmetry.

This should be a lesson for those "will miss the trough" people. A solid trough is a solid trough.

[wxman57]

So we are wanting the n turn to start to occour by 60 correct? otherwise ?

Don't look for any sharp turn. It'll be a very gradual bend to the right in the next 24-36 hours. Very slim chance of this coming anywhere close to the U.S. It's Bermuda-bound, perhaps just east of Bermuda.

In the 5am update they have it going W-NW for the next 24 hours that would but it near 70 not 70 but near. So how is this going to granual turn when they are call for another 24 hours of a W-NW track. So it would have to be a sharp turn. Just asking.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

It's gradually turning NW during the next 24 hours. 300 degrees is almost NW already.

[cpdaman]

sanibel i strongly agree

flo is good to go

and after a little time organizing this morning all quadrants appear under the influence of the anti cylone (sw quad included) and i predict rapid intensification starting this afternoon

[curtadams]

Forence's wind field appears to have decreaed considerably in size as it moves away from the frontal system and strong high to the northeast. I'm showing a ship report of 20 kts just 260 miles NE of the center. That indicates that 34 kt winds are not extending 350nm NE of the center now, maybe closer to 150 nm. This indicates the true circulation of Florence was much smaller than the winds north of the front made it appear.

Low cloud motion looked much better yesterday. Oddly, it seemed to weaken during the big convection burst last night. You could see the more distant low clouds on IR2 (and even AVN) and they were going slower and slower. South they even appeared to be diverging from the center (north was hidden).

[Sanibel]

Probably slower because Florence is still compressed by the ridge. You can see the synoptic's influence by the flat edges seen on the outsides of the convection.

If it heads directly for Bermuda they could have a problem.

[curtadams]

What's causing that big linear outflow boundary-esque feature west of Florence?

[cpdaman]

would a weaker storm have a tendency to go further west and is there

and reason a storm that is weaker could be steered by the ULL as well

i beleive the ingredients are there for strengthening but if the NHC could be wrong so could I