INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Opal storm]

Yeah, I see this staying a sheared-lopsided area of low pressure and being swept NE towards SW FL dumping some good rains on the peninsula. I don't think conditions are ripe enough in the Gulf to support anything more than that.

[vacanechaser]

however, remember shear is not shear if it is moving in the same direction as the shear...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[WeatherEmperor]

however, remember shear is not shear if it is moving in the same direction as the shear...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Interesting point Jesse. What if it is moving in the same direction as the shear but at a very slow pace?

<RICKY>

[vacanechaser]

i would think it would rip it up... but you would think it would move faster with the shear...i guess...lol


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[windstorm99]

Here is were the NHC has the low placed...

[Noles2006]

Yes - hopefully just rain for the gators (the kind in the water - not on the field)...

Yes, because there won't be any gators playing on any (baseball) field anywhere this weekend...

[lothian]

Nole2006,
do you think we will see any rain this weekend?

[Noles2006]

Nole2006,
do you think we will see any rain this weekend?

NWS Tallahassee doesn't really think so... I think the highest POP in town for this weekend was 30, so it doesn't look too good.

Even with the Regional this weekend, I still wouldn't mind a lot of rain. Right now, rain ranks a little higher in importance (not by much, though!).

[seaswing]

Yes - hopefully just rain for the gators (the kind in the water - not on the field)...

Yes, because there won't be any gators playing on any (baseball) field anywhere this weekend...

Yeah but they will certainly be on the field (football) in August...watch out Noles'!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Seas

[Berwick Bay]

I think this system is coming together quite nicely. Looking at the last visible loop, I think we very well may have an upgrade to Depression just as the system nears the west tip of Cuba. Here is the latest loop. Note overall improvement in organization.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[AJC3]

In reality, if it wasn't for the shear, this system wouldn't be firing off convection like it's doing at the moment, and you wouldn't have the mechanism for generating the pressure falls that are occuring over the area.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_250.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... gjava.html

This is all related to the trough that's dipping into the GOMEX. It's actually increasing upper level winds just to the north and creating a healthy increase in the divergent shear over the northwest Caribbean. What you have going on is mostly jet-forced ascent, a baroclinic (non-tropical) process that is mostly responsible for the low spinning up. All the convection is on the east side of the storm, which really doesnt bode well for a system to become warm core, rather all that latent heat being released on the east side of the system would likely serve to strenghten the warm sector.

Given the mid to upper level pattern over the GOMEX, I can't see this system ever becoming a true TC. Either partly (i.e. a hybrid) to mostly a baroclinic low seems more likely to me.

[B'hamBlazer]

Appears to be some convection beginning to the south and maybe west of the reported location of the low.

[cycloneye]

In reality, if it wasn't for the shear, this system wouldn't be firing off convection like it's doing at the moment, and you wouldn't have the mechanism for generating the pressure falls that are occuring over the area.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_250.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... gjava.html

This is all related to the trough that's dipping into the GOMEX. It's actually increasing upper level winds just to the north and creating a healthy increase in the divergent shear over the northwest Caribbean. What you have going on is mostly jet-forced ascent, a baroclinic (non-tropical) process that is mostly responsible for the low spinning up. All the convection is on the east side of the storm, which really doesnt bode well for a system to become warm core, rather all that latent heat being released on the east side of the system would likely serve to strenghten the warm sector.

Given the mid to upper level pattern over the GOMEX, I can't see this system ever becoming a true TC. Either partly (i.e. a hybrid) to mostly a baroclinic low seems more likely to me.

Tony,the most important thing that this system will do is to pour rain where it's badly needed.Hopefully many areas in the Florida Penninsula and SE U.S. gets it.

[Derek Ortt]

Havn't looked that closely since I have not been feeling well, but had a chance this morning and MAYBE a sheared "TC" like Mitch that hit SF in November 1998. May have the baroclinic forcing to lead to development, like we had with Mitch

[seaswing]

Any of you believe that central, N central and NE Florida will get any substantial rain? it is turning into Arizona up here!

Seas

[AJC3]

In reality, if it wasn't for the shear, this system wouldn't be firing off convection like it's doing at the moment, and you wouldn't have the mechanism for generating the pressure falls that are occuring over the area.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_250.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... gjava.html

This is all related to the trough that's dipping into the GOMEX. It's actually increasing upper level winds just to the north and creating a healthy increase in the divergent shear over the northwest Caribbean. What you have going on is mostly jet-forced ascent, a baroclinic (non-tropical) process that is mostly responsible for the low spinning up. All the convection is on the east side of the storm, which really doesnt bode well for a system to become warm core, rather all that latent heat being released on the east side of the system would likely serve to strenghten the warm sector.

Given the mid to upper level pattern over the GOMEX, I can't see this system ever becoming a true TC. Either partly (i.e. a hybrid) to mostly a baroclinic low seems more likely to me.

Tony,the most important thing that this system will do is to pour rain where it's badly needed.Hopefully many areas in the Florida Penninsula and SE U.S. gets it.

Absolutely, Luis. I was simply couching my discussion in terms of actual TC formation, which to me is looking questionable. The model consensus of a sloppy, sheared, convectively "right-sided" low pressure system moving up into the eastern GOMEX and then across the northern half of Florida is something I've alluded to in previous posts, and would be just what our CWA needs.

[Incident_MET]

Fire folks at the Bay Complex here are anxiously waiting every fcst. Thanks for the insight AJC. Model spread has been difficullt .See you soon.

[Beach0612]

Looks like a wall of water heading this way according to the radar

[rjgator]

Looks like a nice new burst of convection to the SSE of the low on the latest floater

[Opal storm]

Any of you believe that central, N central and NE Florida will get any substantial rain? it is turning into Arizona up here!

Seas

Probably,this is a pretty large system.