Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[southerngale]

Gatorcane said this
After looking at many sat images, I think if anything forms it would be south of the islands. I don't see anything consolidating north of the islands.

But one thing is for sure, you can tell the shear is low because of how the cloud tops are "fanning" out symmetrically. If a low can get going it will have a good environment to thrive, at least in the next 24-36 hours.
_____________________________________________________
Basically agree Gator. But one possibility would be with a split in energy, and then over the next couple of days the storms pulled to the north (east of the Bahamas) do become better organized. While storms left in the Carib along the Wave Axis also begin to consolidate in two to three days. In that case we might have two systems to watch. But like you, my main money right now is bet on a more southerly development in the Carib S of the central Cuban Coast. Also I think that environmental conditions across the Carib are going to be improving as the wave axis moves west.

In case you didn't know, you can just hit the "Quote" button on the post and it will quote it for you, like that.

[CourierPR]

I may be seeing a mirage, but it almost looks like a center is closing off south-southeast of Puerto Rico.

[GeneratorPower]

This thing is looking better by the hour. Clearly Invest 97L at the next update cycle.

[gatorcane]

This system has been getting better organized this PM. It does not look like a sheared system to this untrained eye.

Actually, there is an upper level anticyclone over top of the mass of convecton now. That is very good for development. The euro progs this upper high to slowly drift west to be near PR in 48 hrs. The euro also fills in and weakens the ULL so that its gone in 72 hrs. We'll see - these models don't usually do a good job with ULLs. I agree with xy if this thing starts moving more northward toward the ULL it will get sheared apart. But if it moves in tandem with the ULH, a different story.

It sure looks looks like it is moving in tandem to me. You can see the ULLs here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

the whole key to this thing developing is persistence overnight tonight. Right now we are in the diurnal miminum and the convection is starting to wane some. If we are here tomorrow at this time with about the same amount of convection I'd say watch out.

[chadtm80]

Quick storm info has been added to our homepage http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php Let me know if you would like any other info added

[HeeBGBz]

This system has been getting better organized this PM. It does not look like a sheared system to this untrained eye.

Actually, there is an upper level anticyclone over top of the mass of convecton now. That is very good for development. The euro progs this upper high to slowly drift west to be near PR in 48 hrs. The euro also fills in and weakens the ULL so that its gone in 72 hrs. We'll see - these models don't usually do a good job with ULLs. I agree with xy if this thing starts moving more northward toward the ULL it will get sheared apart. But if it moves in tandem with the ULH, a different story.

PR in 48 hours? It already looks like its nearly on top of it now. Where is the center supposed to be?

[Stratosphere747]

That's the problem, or not a problem depending on how you look at it. There is no center, or anything resembling a center.

[boca]

I have a feeling that the ULL east of the Bahamas will pull the wave northward into the Atlantic rather than the Caribbean due to the circulation of southerly flow around the ULL.

[gatorcane]

Perhaps but the ULL is moving west in tandem with our disturbed area, if something gets going far enough south it could head west for a while unfortunatly. Too early to say.

[windstorm99]

Close up IR view...

[NDG]

NDG said
This disturbance is getting organized faster than what the nhc was thinking earlier, IMO.
_____________________________________________________
Definitely something to watch. This morning's convection blow-up really had that "look" (know thats not very scientfic). NDG do you think we might have an invest at 5PM Eastern?

If convection continues blow near what appears to be a MLC forming near the northern windward islands, yes, it might become in invest, IMO, later on this evening.

[canetracker]

Quick storm info has been added to our homepage http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php Let me know if you would like any other info added

I noticed that when I signed on. The storm info looks great and I find it very helpful in getting quick info.

[cycloneye]

West Wind in Dominica



Umm west winds are found in Dominica.Although the pressure is not too low.

[windstorm99]

As of the 2:05pm NHC discussion the wave was moving at west at 15-20mph....If that persists shear looks favorable all the way to the western caribbean.About 5-20kts of shear in its path.

[GeneratorPower]

Has there been a recent QuikScat pass?

[boca]

That west wind in Dominica could be outflow from a thunderstorm.All other hours the winds were south or SE.

[windstorm99]

[Cyclenall]

I think this will be called Invest 97L by tonight.

[gatorcane]

mets where are you?

The situation is changing quickly down there.....