Western Caribbean Thread

[BigA]

It seems to me that with all this convection from the trough axis, low surface pressures, low shear, and waters that are still warm, the Western/Central Caribbean is sort of like a tinderbox, but we havent had anything develop(ignite) because there hasnt been a spark. This wave may provide that spark of energy.

[cycloneye]

I see in that 12z GFS run many lows in the Caribbean that is confusing to sort out what will happen

[jlauderdal]

I wonder why the NHC is so strong against tropical cyclone formation in this area. Usually, they hedge and say something to the extent of "any development will be slow to occur" but here, its more or less "We're not expecting anything to happen."

they dont hedge anything, if they dont think there will be development then they say that. as we have seen things really have to fall into place for development and be happy thats the case because the last thing MOST of us want is easy development of tropical systems.

[jlauderdal]

I see in that 12z GFS run many lows in the Caribbean that is confusing to sort out what will happen

lots of lows is like having lots of quarterbacks, it means you have nothing. sit tight and lets see how things pan out next week.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

Pure entretainment.Look.

[Derek Ortt]

what's so entertaining. Nothing out of the ordinary from that run

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
17N91W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA AND CONTINUES TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
20N85W 23N80W. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS
LOW...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-19N
BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 75W-82W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N78W. ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. A NEW
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

The main sentence from that discussion is=A NEW SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The convective region in the NW caribbean is
showing some movement to the northeast
and will likely go over cuba and out
to sea unless something happens to
keep it in the NW Caribbean.

But then again, it has been developing
for several days now over the same areas
and it could also become stationary there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

what's so entertaining. Nothing out of the ordinary from that run

I saw two runs of the GFS yesterday that suggested an area of thunderstorms, with an 850 mb reflection, but not much on the surface, breaking out of the Yucatan/BoC and heading in the direction of of the Florida Panhandle. This would only be a slightly more exaggerated version.

Actually, today's 12Z GFS is similar, except, because ( assume) it keeps the system very weak, is aimed more at Western Louisiana in 6 days.

[hial2]

what's so entertaining. Nothing out of the ordinary from that run

I think the entertaintment factor is that the run is derived from the CMC model, widely disregarded this year regarding development in the tropics..or did I miss something?

[cycloneye]

what's so entertaining. Nothing out of the ordinary from that run

I think the entertaintment factor is that the run is derived from the CMC model, widely disregarded this year regarding development in the tropics..or did I miss something?

Yes,that is why I said entretainment,because of the continus runs from CMC that shows various systems,even some strong hurricanes,that we haved seen in the past weeks runs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anything coming up from the BoC or Caribbean would hit shear at a minimum of 10 m/s (~20 knots) if it dared venture North of 25ºN, per 12Z GFS, so it doesn't appear to me, in my amateur opinion, that anything would affect the (mainland) US next 7 days.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

It has a low in the SW Caribbean late in the run.

[cycloneye]

[BigA]

For what its worth, the GFDL run for 96L shows a tropical storm in the southwest Caribbean near the end of the run, but it looks like said storm crosses over Panama from the eastern Pacific. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Blob south of cuba will
probably head northeast.

The bigger concern is the
wave in the ECAR now.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 112116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-
DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 860 MILES
EAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop

It gets interesting almost at the end of the run with a low developing in the Western Caribbean and moving NE.But is a very long range timeframe so it has to be taken with a grain of salt.However,lets see in the next runs if it shows the same scenario.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB thinks a piece of this comes out of the BoC, towards the Western Gulf, maybe as a TC, maybe not, and contributes to a massively huge severe weather outbreak in the Plains and Mid-South.

No idea about the TC part, but the Euro 30 m/s (~60 knots) 850 mb South winds with SW winds aloft at 500 mb is usually good for some severe weather

[cycloneye]

Good deep convection going on just NW of Jamaica.



The wave is south of Puerto Rico.