ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[jlauderdal]

western flank still getting crushed by shear, IR looks sexy but still a huge shear problem, maybe they go 50%, this thing is still very fragile with that lousy environment

[Weatherfreak000]

Chances have been improving considerably tonight for both invests in the Atlantic to develop.


If we happen to see the C Storm I think "Season Cancel" is going to be the last thing i'll be thinking. And we STILL have 9 days of July. The tropics never cease to amaze me.

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow! Thats some nice convection right there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ULL has gradually increased speed and moved further away,
resulting in less shear on 97L...this has allowed convection to
become more concentrated...97L is on it's way.

[blp]

I am thinking that it is holding on pretty decent considering the shear blast. I am thinking that the shear will have to let up some tomorrow considering the current movements of that ULL.

[blp]

I don't know what is going on with that ULL. Is it moving W or SW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't know what is going on with that ULL. Is it moving W or SW?

It appears to be accelerating SW to me, while wrapping some clouds/moisture into it
as well making for a "neat" looking image

[xcool22]

SW TO ME

[thetruesms]

Looks to still be digging SW

[chzzdekr81]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[blp]

Looks to still be digging SW

Do you think if it keeps that heading if that will lead to a more favorable position to allow some intensification? Thanks

[Florida1118]

Wow, 40% still. invest 98 Just poped up and its got the same chance...Nice one 97. Still tink this is Bonnie/Colin...

[blp]

[Weatherfreak000]

The TWO wording says its increased in organization but it's still at 40%? I don't agree with the NHC here.

[supercane]

The TWO wording says its increased in organization but it's still at 40%? I don't agree with the NHC here.

Reread it again. It says that the thunderstorms have increased, but does not say that the system itself has become more organized, explicity mentioning that convection is displaced east of the trough axis due to shear. As for disagreeing with the NHC, only time will tell.

[Florida1118]

The TWO wording says its increased in organization but it's still at 40%? I don't agree with the NHC here.

They didnt say it was better organized, they said it had more shower/storm activity. Could you have been looking at 98? They said THAT got better organized but not much about 97.

[Weatherfreak000]

The TWO wording says its increased in organization but it's still at 40%? I don't agree with the NHC here.

Reread it again. It says that the thunderstorms have increased, but does not say that the system itself has become more organized, explicity mentioning that convection is displaced east of the trough axis due to shear. As for disagreeing with the NHC, only time will tell.

If the system has increased in thunderstorm activity, it has gotten better organized. 97L has been getting better organized all day.


No doubt the NHC is playing the conservative route. Tomorrow we will be on our way with cyclogenesis in the ATL

[Florida1118]

The TWO wording says its increased in organization but it's still at 40%? I don't agree with the NHC here.

Reread it again. It says that the thunderstorms have increased, but does not say that the system itself has become more organized, explicity mentioning that convection is displaced east of the trough axis due to shear. As for disagreeing with the NHC, only time will tell.

If the system has increased in thunderstorm activity, it has gotten better organized. 97L has been getting better organized all day.


No doubt the NHC is playing the conservative route. Tomorrow we will be on our way with cyclogenesis in the ATL

Dont certain forecasters like to be conservative over others?

[Weatherfreak000]

Dont certain forecasters like to be conservative over others?

Typically I find like politics, it's good to have a balance of opinion. The person who doesn't see the storm developing is just as important as the one who does. When it reaches that point the two people come to a better understanding of the unpredictability of weather.

Hurricane Ike is definitely a perfect example.


97L has just recently began firing deep red convection again. This was the spark I was confident was going to occur all day. The overnight pattern has been solidly positive for both systems. I believe seeing as at the very least the NHC predicts "marginally favorable", and pro mets here like the environment ahead of both systems tomorrow we may finally see the "B" storm.

Tonight is an exciting night to be a Hurricane Enthusiast!

[Florida1118]

Do you think it would be worth it to stay up another couple hours?