ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KFDM Meteorologist]

At 108 hours it shows a Bomb over Cameron LA.

[Wx_Warrior]

WET is an understatement.

[MWatkins]

Well, that should diminish the convective feedback argument considering that that 3 of the models forecasting some redevelopment don't have the GFS convective feedback feature

MW

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam

[Ikester]

At 108 hours it shows a Bomb over Cameron LA.

What model? Link? Pic?

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 05, 2010081318, , BEST, 0, 314N, 882W, 25, 1008, LO

Keeps moving inland

[KFDM Meteorologist]

At 108 hours it shows a Bomb over Cameron LA.

What model? Link? Pic?

High RES EURO/Cant link it, it's a paid site!

[Stormcenter]

The NWS out of New Orleans is on board (this afternoon) with this scenario but they
don't mention any significant development.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010


LONG TERM...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE REMNANTS OF TD 5. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
LOOP THE LOW THROUGH ALABAMA...SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SURPRISINGLY CLOSE IN
EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
VERY SIMILAR PLACEMENT WISE...BUT ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER.
NEVERTHELESS...IT IS BECOMING CLEARER THAT THE REMNANTS WILL AGAIN
IMPACT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND AN
ELEVATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
THIS FORECAST BUMPS POPS AND QPF UP THROUGH THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACT TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
WEST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. KAH

[Ikester]

At 108 hours it shows a Bomb over Cameron LA.

What model? Link? Pic?

High RES EURO/Cant link it, it's a paid site!

Ah got it. Is it dramatically different than the other runs? I would assume so being it's a 'bomb' over Cameron when all other runs showed a weak reflection.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We have a EURO that shows PRECIP!!

[Ikester]

We have a EURO that shows PRECIP!!

Wowzers! I need to speak with the ND on Monday I see.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam...Pensacola to New Orleans

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It's stormvista.com has the EURO Precip. Have to pay for it though.

[perk]

We have a EURO that shows PRECIP!!

KDFM we have viewed some model output, and heard from JB. What's you're take on former TD#5's comeback.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I agree with what Joe B said, future track will depend on how far it moves back offshore.

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF AND SREF OF SENDING THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST AL ON SUN ON A LOOPING PATTERN...SOUTHWEST...THEN
WEST...SKIRTING THE AL/WRN FL COASTLINE ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN
GEM...ALTHOUGH ALSO SHOWING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LOW IS MUCH
SLOWER/FARTHEST EAST OF THE OTHER THREE AND MUCH DEEPER WITH ITS LOW
SOLUTION...MOVING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS AL/MS BORDER BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS COMES IN SECOND WITH A DEEPENING LOW MOVING
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY WED AFTN. WILL DISCOUNT THE
GEM. THE NATIONAL CENTERS SUGGEST THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH ITS
LOW AND WILL MAINTAIN A WWRD MOVING...BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE
TROF/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY...AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL ZONE POKING DOWN INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT
WEEK. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD...CALLING FOR A LIKELY
CHANCE=>NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA SUN AND MON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SW-WWRD MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THERE. WILL STAY WITH MID/HIGH RANGE CHANCE OF
DAYTIME POPS FOR TUE THROUGH FRI WITH LOWER CHANCES EACH NIGHT. NO
CHANGE MADE TO TEMPERATURES. /10

[Ivanhater]

Seems to me the faster it moves, the further west it makes it before being caught up. If it is slower it will not progress as far west. Almost a sure bet the North Central Gulf coast will be in for a wet and blustery early week. Maybe more if it strengthens like the Canadian and GFS.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

[KWT]

At 108 hours it shows a Bomb over Cameron LA.

I'm quite concerned by the flooding threat, there is going to be quite a bit of convection about anyway thanks to this system over the next sysem and thats before it possibly strengthens as it gets closer to water again.

[rockyman]

Latest: