ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cpdaman]

Ok let's assume Danielle takes the NW track towards the CONUS, what happens to Earl? If that were to happen Earl would be almost due south with Danielle chugging slowly towards the CONUS??? Does Earl recurve east of Danielle, continue moving towards Danielle, or would that force Earl more S and W? I think the NE recurve solution for Danielle is more likely IMO.

interesting....i think a NE recurve is gonna happen ....the only question is how much of West bend occurs prior...i think at most she gets to 66/67 West

[wxman57]

I see a ragged eye on satellite now. I think Danielle will reach Cat 3 tomorrow.

[TexasF6]

wxman--why did the earlier models threaten NY? What are your thoughts on a bend back and CONUS strike?

[cheezyWXguy]

I see a ragged eye on satellite now. I think Danielle will reach Cat 3 tomorrow.

what do you think about the loss of deep convection though? The -80C cloud tops seem to have been replaced by more like -60C or so.

[Ivanhater]

I see a ragged eye on satellite now. I think Danielle will reach Cat 3 tomorrow.

Wow..first major of the season. Unlikely to be the last...

[Ivanhater]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260239
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...DANIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 54.1W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHE

[StormTracker]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260239
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...DANIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 54.1W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[StormTracker]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260239
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...DANIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 54.1W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHE

IH you beat me by 5 secs!

[CrazyC83]

If it can pump more deep convection with better conditions, I agree Danielle should become a major, maybe a Cat 4, tomorrow.

[wxman57]

wxman--why did the earlier models threaten NY? What are your thoughts on a bend back and CONUS strike?

Really, it was just the GFS from 18Z yesterday and the NOGAPS. You can always count on NOGAPS to be opposite of all the other models. It's not a done deal that there's no East U.S. threat, but it's a low chance.

[wxman57]

I see a ragged eye on satellite now. I think Danielle will reach Cat 3 tomorrow.

what do you think about the loss of deep convection though? The -80C cloud tops seem to have been replaced by more like -60C or so.

Overall structure is much more impressive, even with warming cloud tops. I think the convection will really fire up tonight.

[plasticup]

I am more interested in its growing size. No matter where the center goes inside the forecast cone, there is no way that Bermuda will avoid TS-strength winds.

[cpdaman]

is she even moving?

[StormTracker]

I am more interested in its growing size. No matter where the center goes inside the forecast cone, there is no way that Bermuda will avoid TS-strength winds.

From my understanding, Bermuda is built to withstand hurricane force winds! TS-strength winds would be a breeze for them(no pun intended)!

[ozonepete]

I see a ragged eye on satellite now. I think Danielle will reach Cat 3 tomorrow.

what do you think about the loss of deep convection though? The -80C cloud tops seem to have been replaced by more like -60C or so.

Overall structure is much more impressive, even with warming cloud tops. I think the convection will really fire up tonight.

Totally agree. Looks like it should make cat 3 with no problem; we're finally seeing a tropical cyclone this season with good symmetry and size. As far as where it's going, it may not get pulled far enough north by the first trough, but even if it doesn't and spins around for a while east of Bermuda, the next longwave coming in from the west should catch it and take it out to the northeast. Can't see this affecting any land including Bermuda.

Okay, this is my opinion!
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[JPM]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Danielle is a very large and growing hurricane, tropical storm force winds are nearing 200 miles (nautical). This hurricane will be a major hurricane by tomorrow. The fact that the storm is forecast by nearly all guidance to slow in forward speed as the next few days pass is important, because that means the high building eastward over the north Atlantic will have that much more time to turn the system northwestward. Areas that should be concerned are, the island of Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S. from Chincoteague Virginia-northeastward to the U.S.-Canadian border and all of Atlantic Canada.

[ozonepete]

Danielle is a very large and growing hurricane, tropical storm force winds are nearing 200 miles (nautical). This hurricane will be a major hurricane by tomorrow. The fact that the storm is forecast by nearly all guidance to slow in forward speed as the next few days pass is important, because that means the high building eastward over the north Atlantic will have that much more time to turn the system northwestward. Areas that should be concerned are, the island of Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S. from Chincoteague Virginia-northeastward to the U.S.-Canadian border and all of Atlantic Canada.

Hello JPM. Just remember when you put a forecast like this into storm2k to put a disclaimer in here that this is your own opinion. We don't want our friends who are not meteorologists to worry too much!

[cycloneye]

Danielle is a very large and growing hurricane, tropical storm force winds are nearing 200 miles (nautical). This hurricane will be a major hurricane by tomorrow. The fact that the storm is forecast by nearly all guidance to slow in forward speed as the next few days pass is important, because that means the high building eastward over the north Atlantic will have that much more time to turn the system northwestward. Areas that should be concerned are, the island of Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S. from Chincoteague Virginia-northeastward to the U.S.-Canadian border and all of Atlantic Canada.

Hello JPM. Just remember when you put a forecast like this into storm2k to put a disclaimer in here that this is your own opinion. We don't want our friends who are not meteorologists to worry too much!

I added the storm2k disclaimer to the post.

[ozonepete]

So we're all good.

[neospaceblue]

The models that are bringing the system back to the west are of great concern to me. What are the chances of Danielle heading back to the west and impacting North Carolina-Virginia-Delmarva area?