ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[thundercam96]

Tropical Storm Beryl

8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

[NDG]

Lowest pressure:992.1 mbs

234100 3020N 08039W 8430 01425 9923 +192 +117 077012 015 /// /// 03
234130 3021N 08040W 8426 01427 9921 +195 +114 071017 018 002 003 03
234200 3023N 08042W 8428 01428 9925 +186 +125 072022 025 022 003 00

She has now been moving NW of due W.

[cycloneye]

...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[MiamiHurricanes10]

70mph for 8p.m isn't surprising. Should the hunters truly find some hurricane-force SFMR readings I'm sure the NHC will make the call. The evidence will have to be extremely unanimous though.

[tolakram]

Last visible

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 272348
XXAA 78008 99298 70805 08190 99000 23000 22549 00504 ///// /////
92672 18400 23561 85398 16403 24545 88999 77999
31313 09608 82331
61616 AF308 0302A BERYL OB 17
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2982N08050W 2333 MBL WND 22056 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 23555 999843 WL150 22051 083 REL 2980N08053W 233102 SPG 2982N0
8050W 233319 =
XXBB 78008 99298 70805 08190 00000 23000 11952 19400 22850 16403
33843 16200
21212 00000 22549 11994 22047 22987 22054 33977 22053 44955 22562
55941 23057 66927 23562 77921 24056 88909 24066 99889 24560 11876
24546 22852 25047 33843 24038
31313 09608 82331
61616 AF308 0302A BERYL OB 17
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2982N08050W 2333 MBL WND 22056 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 23555 999843 WL150 22051 083 REL 2980N08053W 233102 SPG 2982N0
8050W 233319 =
;

[Evil Jeremy]

...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recon just recorded lowest pressure, 992.1mb. Also, in their last data set, the winds were increasing and the final reported ob was 69kt flight level winds. Lets see if they get higher in the next data set.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 272349
XXAA 78008 99302 70806 11700 99993 24421 17503 00562 ///// /////
92619 21012 20009 85350 17623 18001 88999 77999
31313 09608 82338
61616 AF308 0302A BERYL OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 3022N08061W 2340 MBL WND 20504 AEV 20802 DLM WND 20
506 992843 WL150 21004 083 REL 3022N08061W 233846 SPG 3022N08061W
233958 =
XXBB 78008 99302 70806 11700 00993 24421 11899 19605 22850 17623
33843 16627
21212 00993 17503 11889 22509 22854 23002 33843 11003
31313 09608 82338
61616 AF308 0302A BERYL OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 3022N08061W 2340 MBL WND 20504 AEV 20802 DLM WND 20
506 992843 WL150 21004 083 REL 3022N08061W 233846 SPG 3022N08061W
233958 =
;

[Blown Away]

Much of NE FL & S GA has not seen sustained winds near 50-65 mph in a long time. There could be problems with big trees and down limbs/lines compared to areas that see these winds more frequent. 60-70 mph winds can be very scary, especially when a system is moving slowly.

[jaxfladude]

Tropical Storm Beryl

8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

Wow!
Power still on for me, for now.
Almost a hurricane....

[Dave]

[northjaxpro]

Matthews bridge is now closed.
I expect Dames Point shortly, same with Hart Bridge.

Yep Jdray that ws inevitable to happen and rightfully so.

BTW, how are conditions down in your area currently. I have picked up just under an inch of rain in these feeder bands rotating through thus far and the highest wind gust here at my location has been 46 mph. Right now, it has slacked off a bit but awaiting the next feederband to rotate through.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop: http://i.imgur.com/xNNgv.gif

[thundercam96]

So Is There Still A Chance Of This Becoming A Hurricane?

[cycloneye]

70mph for 8p.m isn't surprising. Should the hunters truly find some hurricane-force SFMR readings I'm sure the NHC will make the call. The evidence will have to be extremely unanimous though.

I am sure that after the season is over,they will do plenty of analysis on the post season report.

[Mouton]

Looks like they are going to make the jump:

8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

[jinftl]

Agree 100%...tropical storms...and I am quite confident that sustained tropical storm conditions will be what all effected areas receive (definitely gusts over hurricane force possible on the coast)...will shock folks of what that can do, esp an area that hasn't seen a direct impact in a long time. I pray folks are not on the road...we had strong tropical storm conditions here in fort lauderdale with irene in 1999 and 6 people were killed when trees fell on their cars as they were driving around since it 'wasn't a hurricane warning.'

Much of NE FL & S GA has not seen sustained winds near 50-65 mph in a long time. There could be problems with big trees and there could be some problems w/ down trees/lines compared to areas that see these winds more frequent. 60-70 mph winds can be very scary, especially when a system is moving slowly.

[tolakram]

Looks like they are going to make the jump:

8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

Hurricane, cat 1, starts at 74 MPH

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272354
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 27 20120527
234530 3032N 08048W 8432 01453 9992 +130 +130 064070 072 047 005 01
234600 3034N 08049W 8420 01470 9997 +130 +130 067073 076 045 005 01
234630 3035N 08050W 8432 01464 9999 +140 +140 069072 075 046 003 01
234700 3037N 08051W 8424 01482 0008 +138 +136 066069 071 047 002 00
234730 3038N 08052W 8429 01476 0009 +140 +129 067066 068 048 000 00
234800 3039N 08053W 8428 01482 0016 +139 +131 065065 066 049 002 00
234830 3041N 08054W 8431 01482 0018 +139 +127 064065 066 052 003 00
234900 3042N 08055W 8424 01494 0024 +139 +126 066066 067 052 003 00
234930 3044N 08056W 8433 01488 0029 +130 +130 068068 070 048 003 01
235000 3045N 08057W 8428 01493 0036 +130 +130 071072 076 046 004 01
235030 3046N 08058W 8429 01500 0036 +130 +130 072072 077 046 004 01
235100 3048N 08059W 8430 01506 0047 +130 +130 073076 078 049 004 01
235130 3049N 08100W 8432 01509 0057 +120 +120 059078 080 049 013 01
235200 3051N 08101W 8444 01494 //// +115 //// 059075 079 046 012 01
235230 3052N 08102W 8429 01514 //// +106 //// 059075 076 049 016 01
235300 3053N 08103W 8428 01521 0076 +110 +110 063077 078 049 015 01
235330 3055N 08104W 8415 01538 0077 +120 +120 064072 075 044 016 01
235400 3056N 08105W 8425 01528 0072 +129 +128 064071 073 043 007 00
235430 3057N 08106W 8431 01525 0073 +128 +125 065069 070 042 007 03
235500 3059N 08106W 8414 01542 0081 +120 +120 066065 067 044 009 01
$$
;

FL 80 Kts; SFMR 52 kts