ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Overall velocity is really down too. Look at radar as well and there really is no counter-clockwise circulation anymore.

circulation center is out of radar range, but it certainly shows a weakening system with the winds.

[tropicwatch]

Looking better than it did earlier today.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=JUA&type=N0Z&showstorms=0&lat=18.46724892&lon=-66.10896301&label=San%20Juan,%20PR&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

[Cyclenall]

When I said this was a nothing burger, I meant it. I was hoping this would die quick when it got its name and it appears to have done just that...keep the ACE extremely low (record low soon) and waste a name I didn't like, thank God! The method was to go over the highest mountains in Hispaniola and finish this before ACE was racked up but because this season is so pathetic, it almost died even before that! I don't want any regeneration, put this puppy to bed.

DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...
WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D
RADAR. THIS TILTED STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONE
BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES. IN ADDITION...THE
DROPSONDE DATA SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
STATE OF THE CIRCULATION...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION...AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OF
GABRIELLE...NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSUMING
THAT GABRIELLE SURVIVES...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AFTER
GABRIELLE MOVES NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

All this during early September in the Caribbean, just astounding. It wasn't even suppose to have wind shear (remember "very favorable" shear pattern?) as a problem yet the MLC and LLC were 180 miles apart today. I haven't heard the NHC talk so much about this mid-level dry air before. No lid is coming off...

[jlauderdal]

When I said this was a nothing burger, I meant it. I was hoping this would die quick when it got its name and it appears to have done just that...keep the ACE extremely low (record low soon) and waste a name I didn't like, thank God! The method was to go over the highest mountains in Hispaniola and finish this before ACE was racked up but because this season is so pathetic, it almost died even before that! I don't want any regeneration, put this puppy to bed.

DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...
WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D
RADAR. THIS TILTED STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONE
BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES. IN ADDITION...THE
DROPSONDE DATA SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
STATE OF THE CIRCULATION...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION...AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OF
GABRIELLE...NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSUMING
THAT GABRIELLE SURVIVES...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AFTER
GABRIELLE MOVES NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

All this during early September in the Caribbean, just astounding. It wasn't even suppose to have wind shear (remember "very favorable" shear pattern?) as a problem yet the MLC and LLC were 180 miles apart today. I haven't heard the NHC talk so much about this mid-level dry air before. No lid is coming off...

well at least upwelling wont be an issue for the next few weeks

[SeGaBob]

It appears as if the old circulation is trying to wrap up but it's moving into Hispaniola now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html.

Can someone tell me how to do URLs in my links? I've tried but can't get it right...

[Gustywind]

SSD numbers.

05/2345 UTC 18.4N 68.5W OVERLAND GABRIELLE
05/1745 UTC 17.9N 68.4W T1.5/2.5 GABRIELLE

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2013090600, , BEST, 0, 188N, 684W, 25, 1010, TD

[southerngale]

It appears as if the old circulation is trying to wrap up but it's moving into Hispaniola now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html.

Can someone tell me how to do URLs in my links? I've tried but can't get it right...

You just highlight your URL and then click the URL tags above the message box. It should look like this:

Code: Select all

[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-rb-long.html[/url]

[ROCK]

It appears as if the old circulation is trying to wrap up but it's moving into Hispaniola now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html.

Can someone tell me how to do URLs in my links? I've tried but can't get it right...

You just highlight your URL and then click the URL tags above the message box. It should look like this:

Code: Select all

[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-rb-long.html[/url]

thanks SG!!!

[galaxy401]

Convection from the eastern wave is warming. There is a strong burst of convection south of PR. Is that related to Gabrielle?

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update
Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel
Sep 5, 2013 7:41 pm ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

- Tropical Depression Gabrielle barely hanging on near the southeast coast of the Dominican Republic


- Heavy rainfall and flood threat remain across U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through tomorrow

Gabrielle's weak low level swirl is hardly apparent on satellite just south of Punta Cana along the southeast coast of the Dominican Republic. Unless thunderstorms reorganize over the faint center or the center reforms under stronger storms, Gabrielle will likely dissipate over the next few hours. Most of Gabrielle's weather is removed to the east of the center where it continues to produce heavy rainfall over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Several inches of rain have already fallen today across parts of Puerto Rico, especially on the southern half of the island where rainfall is being enhanced by flow up the west-to-east oriented mountains. Flood Watches are in effect for the U.S. territories through tomorrow afternoon.


Over the past few days, Gabrielle (formerly Invest 97-L) has been protected by a sprawling upper level high which painted almost ideal upper level winds to ventilate developing thunderstorms. This upper high has since shifted southwestward and Gabrielle is now facing less than favorable westerly winds aloft. Additionally, relatively dry air about 15,000 feet up will work against restrengthening.


A tropical disturbance along the northeast edge of Gabrielle is also being monitored for development but it faces similar adverse conditions. A reinforcing dip in the jet stream over the western Atlantic this weekend will erode the east-to-west steering pattern such that anything that tries to develop will move northward and away from the U.S.

[Sanibel]

Raining on eastern Puerto Rico and St Thomas right now.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2013090600, , BEST, 0, 188N, 684W, 25, 1010, TD

ATCF updated the 00z Best Track to terminate TD Gabrielle as a TC.

AL, 07, 2013090600, , BEST, 0, 188N, 684W, 25, 1010, DB

[gatorcane]

Looks like Gabrielle's remnants and associated surface trough to the east are in no hurry to go anywhere as I was thinking. Still think the models are trying to eject this to the north and Northeast too quickly in response to the trough coming off the Eastern Coast of the United States. If it hangs around long enough could see something try to get going a few days from now somewhere in the vicinity of Hispaniola or Puerto Rico or just a little north of those areas once conditions improve.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeGaBob]

It appears as if the old circulation is trying to wrap up but it's moving into Hispaniola now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html.

Can someone tell me how to do URLs in my links? I've tried but can't get it right...

You just highlight your URL and then click the URL tags above the message box. It should look like this:

Code: Select all

[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-rb-long.html[/url]

Thanks southerngale.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013

...GABRIELLE DISSIPATES...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 68.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL
CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE
LANDMASS OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL
TO THE EAST...OVER AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE MOVING GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
INTERACTING WITH OR POSSIBLY MERGING WITH THE LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND USERS SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS
FROM THE NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THAT HAZARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 19.0N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[SeGaBob]

Next system please... I wouldn't rule out regeneration of this system though.

['CaneFreak]

I hear Queen warming up in the background...

"...and another one gone and another one gone...another one bites the dust..."

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Doesn't matter much, related to redeveloping. Once again another trough is forecast to drop down the eastern us later next week and whatever and wherever this is will once and for all be swept out for good.

We have got to be nearing a record for the shortest and weakest lived tropical storms in a season.

[blp]

Look at this 850mb vorticity. I have never seen such an elongated mess. I give up. My thoughts on this system are captured in the image below.