ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dexterlabio]

I was kind of expecting this hurricane to expand following the EWRC. I guess there will be a series of those to make Irma larger and stronger.

[xironman]

Probably a close analog to the gfs

Check the distance between the ticks going up the coast, it had a forward speed of 70 miles per hour at that time. It went from a decent day to cat 3 conditions in the matter of hours at landfall.

[tiger_deF]

I was kind of expecting this hurricane to expand following the EWRC. I guess there will be a series of those to make Irma larger and stronger.

It has expanded, or at least the eyewall of the storm has expanded. It lost most of it's feeder bands so it just looks smaller.

[JtSmarts]

Interesting that the GFS is about 50 hours faster than the Euro with US impact. If the GFS is correct we are only about 7-8 days from a Continental US landfall.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18831&y=6930&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

Irma heading south of west and getting into warmer water now.

[ftolmsteen]

Seems like the last few frames Irma has expanded a little.

[NDG]

Still is a good looking dangerous hurricane with decent moisture envelope considering that it is the middle of the Atlantic over marginal warm waters & when just a few weeks ago TWs were drying up because of the extremely dry air in this area. I estimate it to be near 18.9 N this morning so the WSW heading is starting little by little this morning just like models have persistently indicating and not climatology.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'll guess 938 based of the fact that
a. its in the Atlantic not the Caribbean where oceanic heat content is higher. I dont think its possible much lower at the latitude its going to be at.
b. conditions will be good, but any lower pressure would require perfect.
c. winds possibly as high as 150 mph
d. will not be strengthening if there is a US landfall (will be weakening up to landfall)

[tiger_deF]

Impressive bout of strengthening in the last few frames. Irma is currently moving over 27 degree waters from the 26 degree waters it was over last night, so we should see her gain at least major status back.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If there was dry air near the core, its obviously been mixed out

[Frank2]

Local NWS discussion mentions strong trough at 120 hours moving through SE states and possibly affecting Irma's track. Usually 120-hour maps are fairly accurate (Harvey forecast maps were a good example, most correctly indicating 50" rainfall).

Right now we (FL) have a trough overhead, and when that pattern is in place going into September it usually persists, replaced by the subtropical high for short periods.

That could present a problem in October, but for now it always helps keep things to our east...

[northjaxpro]

Local NWS discussion mentions strong trough at 120 hours moving through SE states and possibly affecting Irma's track. Usually 120-hour maps are fairly accurate (Harvey forecast maps were a good example, most correctly indicating 50" rainfall).

Right now we (FL) have a trough overhead, and when that pattern is in place going into September it usually persists, replaced by the subtropical high for short periods.

That could present a problem in October, but for now it always helps keep things to our east...

Well, I pray that you are right Frank.

[Michele B]

I just thought of this, and I think it bears stating:

It is a forgone conclusion, this storm WILL impact someone in the CONUS. In a big way.

Taking a lesson from Harvey, let me state what should be obvious: once a clear path is decided on, the ProMets and local authorities WILL have advice for those in the soon-to-be-impacted area.

YOU IGNORE THAT ADVICE AT YOUR OWN PERIL.

Just look at how many people almost drowned in their own homes because they refused to evacuate when they were told 50-60 inches of rain were coming. I remember watching one rescue where the lady literally said to her rescuers, "I figured it's a little rain. We've had that before, I think we can handle it....." and yet here she was,having to be rescued by boat out of her house! It wasn't "just a little rain," it was an historic amount of rain!

How many times did the authorities - and even those on TWC, etc. say, "Write your vitals on your arm in permanent marker so they can ID you later..."? Do people think they just did that for fun?

Bottom line is: there are people who are trying to save lives. NO ONE wants to leave their home, or be inconvenienced by something like this. But it comes with the territory, literally. So, follow the best advice given by all the authorities in your area. Don't think you know more than they do!

Of course, I'm preaching to the choir on this forum, but I just thought it might bear repeating....

Thanks for letting me get it off my chest.

[CourierPR]

Local NWS discussion mentions strong trough at 120 hours moving through SE states and possibly affecting Irma's track. Usually 120-hour maps are fairly accurate (Harvey forecast maps were a good example, most correctly indicating 50" rainfall).

Right now we (FL) have a trough overhead, and when that pattern is in place going into September it usually persists, replaced by the subtropical high for short periods.

That could present a problem in October, but for now it always helps keep things to our east...

DISCUSSION...
An active pattern is set up over the eastern US for today, with
what is left of Harvey well to the north, but influencing a weak
boundary laying along the eastern seaboard and the Florida
peninsula. High pressure is set up to the northeast, but is fairly
weak at this time. Through the day today, the low that was once
Harvey, will continue to weaken and be absorbed into an upper level
trough exiting the US to the northeast. As it does, the high
pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic. After today,
this high should keep a generally easterly flow across the region
through at least the middle of the week. By the end of the week, a
strong trough will push a cold front into the southeast United
States. As it does, Irma is forecast to make its way westward,
possibly interacting with the trough. However, there is a great
amount of uncertainty as to the strength of the trough, and what
track Irma may take. But, as for now, the forecast does not call
for any significant impacts to South Florida from Irma through the
end of the forecast package on Saturday morning.

I think we need to be cautious with wording. Things can change.

[weathaguyry]

Living in New York, it sends shivers down my spine to think what would happen if they had to evacuate all of Coastal Nassau County, and NYC. Any suggestions for what I should do/ buy now?

[msbee]

Good morning everyone
I am following all the updates and comments.
Thank you
St Maarten people are taking this seriously. Lots of ply wood being sold.
FYI, Tuesday September 5th is the 22nd anniversary of when Hurricane Luis destroyed our little island.

[northjaxpro]

Great post MichelleB!

[cycloneye]

Good morning everyone
I am following all the updates and comments.
Thank you
St Maarten people are taking this seriously. Lots of ply wood being sold.
FYI, Tuesday September 5th is the 22nd anniversary of when Hurricane Luis destroyed our little island.

Hi Barbara.Hopefully Irma moves away from the Islands but preparations must begin as you are in the cone of uncertainty from NHC.

[Michele B]

Living in New York, it sends shivers down my spine to think what would happen if they had to evacuate all of Coastal Nassau County, and NYC. Any suggestions for what I should do/ buy now?

Life rafts?

J/K