ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

We have a lonngg way to go. No one really knows what's going on with this storm right now, but it has thousands of miles to form or fizzle.

[aspen]

I can’t wait for this thing to either get named or die over Hispaniola, just to free us from the agony of trying to figure out when and where it will form.

[Vdogg]

Whatever this is is about to get cleaved in half by PR. It'll be interesting to see if that northern piece of energy can break away and become something.

[AutoPenalti]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

I agree as well. Just an unfavorable environment + Hispaniola. I would go further, I think it has a 5% chance of getting a name. Will be a nice weekend in Florida!

I think these “Florida will be safe” “Florida will have a nice weekend” posts need to stop, we don’t even have a proven center yet and models are still trying to get a fix on where this will go and how strong it will be.

[GCANE]

The big blobs of heavy convection are firing from a shear gradient that is sourced from an UL Jet over PR.

[otowntiger]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

I agree. There certainly seem to be way more factors working against PTC9 than for it at the moment. Inhibiting factors: 1. fast motion, 2. Lots of future land interaction (and mountainous at that), 3. Dry air, 4. Shear, and 5. its not been able to organize one bit since we started paying attention to it. Pro-development factors: 1. Warm water.

[Aric Dunn]

Best cloud line fit with radar..

likely closed now.. just still elongated.

[3090]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

We have a lonngg way to go. No one really knows what's going on with this storm right now, but it has thousands of miles to form or fizzle.

Well for sure...

[SFLcane]

Best cloud line fit with radar..

likely closed now.. just still elongated.


https://i.ibb.co/y8NTvZV/Capture.png

They can still classify? Even if elongated its getting better organized. When is next recon?

[Blown Away]

Improving IMO, may have PR in it's sights? @16N/64W

[msbee]

live web cam in st maarten
http://sunsetsxm.com/plane-info/

[3090]

Best cloud line fit with radar..

likely closed now.. just still elongated.


https://i.ibb.co/y8NTvZV/Capture.png

That APPEARS, if so it is, is a center that is further south as far as I can tell, from that image.

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT

[Weatherboy1]

Zooming in using visible satellite images/loops, I strongly feel we have an LLC taking shape around 16N and just east of 65W. This is in the area of that new burst of convection some have been discussing. Will be interesting to see if this is confirmed by NHC or next recon flight.

[MidnightRain]

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

I agree as well. Just an unfavorable environment + Hispaniola. I would go further, I think it has a 5% chance of getting a name. Will be a nice weekend in Florida!

I think these “Florida will be safe” “Florida will have a nice weekend” posts need to stop, we don’t even have a proven center yet and models are still trying to get a fix on where this will go and how strong it will be.

Yeah. Despite whether it develops or not, “nice weekend” usually isn’t the most accurate description of being on the eastern flank of a tropical disturbance.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Zooming in using visible satellite images/loops, I strongly feel we have an LLC taking shape around 16N and just east of 65W. This is in the area of that new burst of convection some have been discussing. Will be interesting to see if this is confirmed by NHC or next recon flight.

Hopefully they will go far enough south to where ASCAT is actually showing the west winds

[cainjamin]

Still looking pretty troughy to me, and ASCAT seems to confirm that there's still no LLC at this time. The two ends of the wave are still competing with each other, although it's better organized than it was yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes land interaction with Hispaniola to finally dissipate the southern end of the trough and force the northern end to become more organized north of the island. Either way, conditions ahead of it don't look to be great for significant intensification, although that could change depending on where the storm actually forms and how strong it can get before it reaches the Bahamas.

[SouthFloridawx]

[chaser1]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

I tend to think Wxman's right there. The flip side to that however is that if this system does rapidly get it's act together, I could just as easily see it reaching hurricane intensity prior to any landfall. That would change up the game quite a bit.

[wxman57]

Zooming in using visible satellite images/loops, I strongly feel we have an LLC taking shape around 16N and just east of 65W. This is in the area of that new burst of convection some have been discussing. Will be interesting to see if this is confirmed by NHC or next recon flight.

Hopefully they will go far enough south to where ASCAT is actually showing the west winds

There are west winds across the A-B-C islands off the coast of Venezuela, but that doesn't mean PTC Nine is a TS. Circulation is very broad, extending from PR south to Venezuela. No tight central circulation, though. Not sure if it's going to make it before it hits the DR tonight, where it will likely see its chances to develop end.