ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Homie J]

It's likely not fully closed but once it is, the real intensification should begin

How is this likely to not be fully closed? Its had dual rotating cbs around the center for a few hours now

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1428844901320515585

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428847036699484160

[Stormybajan]

My guess for recon...100 mph 970 mb

[tailgater]

We won’t be able to tell for sure until Recon gets in there( bumpy ride) but Grace seems to have slowed a bit more, my guess is due west if not a little north of due west.
I would have thought she would plow right into the coast with that UH trying to push her a little south southwest.

[aspen]

Based on the 5pm cone, Grace should make landfall at around 3am EST. It’s 6:46pm EST right now, so it has just over 8 hours left over water.

[skyline385]

It's likely not fully closed but once it is, the real intensification should begin

Doubt it has time for that...

[aspen]

Recon is in the CDO. My last-minute guess for the first pass intensity is 90-95 kt and 970-975 mbar. I have a feeling that this might not be as strong as we’re anticipating.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[grapealcoholic]

Recon is in the CDO. My last-minute guess for the first pass intensity is 90-95 kt and 970-975 mbar. I have a feeling that this might not be as strong as we’re anticipating.

Yeah it needs to wrap that convection first.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[grapealcoholic]

95kts 968 ill guess

[Homie J]

Recon is in the CDO. My last-minute guess for the first pass intensity is 90-95 kt and 970-975 mbar. I have a feeling that this might not be as strong as we’re anticipating.

Yeah it needs to wrap that convection first.

Its had curling CBs across the entire cdo for the past two hours. Take a look at the satellite imagery.

[aspen]

Data so far indicates we have an 85 kt Cat 2 hurricane. Unfortunately, the barometer on AF309 is going in and out.

[grapealcoholic]

Recon is in the CDO. My last-minute guess for the first pass intensity is 90-95 kt and 970-975 mbar. I have a feeling that this might not be as strong as we’re anticipating.

Yeah it needs to wrap that convection first.

Its had curling CBs across the entire cdo for the past two hours. Take a look at the satellite imagery.

I know but the eye needs to pop before serious pressure falls occur

[ThetaE]

Recon is in the CDO. My last-minute guess for the first pass intensity is 90-95 kt and 970-975 mbar. I have a feeling that this might not be as strong as we’re anticipating.

I mean, personally I would only add about 5 kt/subtract 5 mb to those ranges that you've listed, which lines up with a ~2mb/hr deepening rate since the last recon pass.

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

968 mbar, 11 mbar lower than NHC's latest value. First pass (NE to the center) has winds that seem to indicate a cat 2, even though the NW quadrant (not sampled yet) might still have stronger winds based on IR.

Pressure = 968.0 mbar
SFMR = 84 kt
Est. Sfc. Wind = 76.7 kt

[NDG]

Recon extrap 968 mb, solid Cat 2 Hurricane.

RNT15 KNHC 202346
AF309 1907A GRACE HDOB 18 20210820
233730 2048N 09516W 6960 02996 //// +079 //// 172066 067 085 036 05
233800 2048N 09518W 6977 02965 //// +080 //// 166068 070 079 018 01
233830 2048N 09520W 6961 02973 9812 +106 //// 164074 076 071 002 05
233900 2048N 09522W 6966 02950 9787 +116 //// 164073 076 073 007 01
233930 2047N 09524W 6959 02941 9754 +131 +126 169065 070 075 006 00
234000 2047N 09526W 6961 02931 9735 +140 +120 168048 059 063 002 00
234030 2046N 09527W 6963 02921 9717 +150 +113 165038 043 046 003 00
234100 2046N 09529W 6961 02918 9713 +150 +101 165031 035 039 001 00
234130 2045N 09531W 6965 02911 9706 +154 +099 168031 032 032 001 00
234200 2045N 09533W 6962 02907 9702 +151 +103 168029 032 028 000 00
234230 2044N 09535W 6961 02906 9701 +147 +109 160025 028 029 000 03
234300 2044N 09537W 6960 02903 9701 +142 +116 158022 024 027 001 00
234330 2043N 09539W 6964 02894 9688 +153 +107 147017 020 027 001 00
234400 2042N 09540W 6957 02899 9684 +152 +107 148010 014 027 000 00
234430 2041N 09542W 6957 02895 9684 +150 +105 121003 008 026 000 03
234500 2040N 09544W 6965 02888 9680 +154 +113 335007 012 028 003 00
234530 2039N 09545W 6959 02899 9682 +154 +119 315025 029 032 004 00
234600 2038N 09546W 6967 02894 9683 +160 +112 314029 029 051 004 00
234630 2037N 09548W 6954 02916 9702 +145 +130 311039 042 069 005 00
234700 2035N 09549W 6962 02917 9723 +136 +123 313052 057 075 004 00

[CrazyC83]

There's enough data to go with 85 kt, although it could certainly still be stronger.