Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[theworld]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Felix is going through a EWRC, because the inner eye is fading and growing smaller and a outter eye wall with the soild reds have formed. Watch that inner eye fade away while the outter starts forming. Then Felix should restrengthen.

[theworld]

[RDTF]

lots of new Mosquitos will hatch on the Mosquito Coast after Felix slams it

[theworld]

[otowntiger]

You never know. The long west track could be a long wobble followed by a long WNW correction. I'm not saying this WILL happen, but hurricanes are notoriously tricky.

There are no such thing as long wobbles by the very definition of wobble. A wobble is a short jerk in one direction or another. A "long wobble" would simplly be a change in direction. If this storm only "clipped" Honduras it would still be a very devasting event. The worst winds would pummel the entire Honduras coast.

[wxman57]

Finally! The WNW wobble I was looking for all day! If this trends it will be a totally different story.

I don't see anything but almost due west motion. It's stuck on 14.5N. Just trochoidal motion.

[theworld]

[Smurfwicked]

You never know. The long west track could be a long wobble followed by a long WNW correction. I'm not saying this WILL happen, but hurricanes are notoriously tricky.

There are no such thing as long wobbles by the very definition of wobble. A wobble is a short jerk in one direction or another. A "long wobble" would simplly be a change in direction. If this storm only "clipped" Honduras it would still be a very devasting event. The worst winds would pummel the entire Honduras coast.

from what i can see now it appears right now that its going to do just that... just barely "clip" Honduras... which that wouldn't weaken felix very much until it gets to the yucatan right?

[wxman57]

Again, using GARP with a zoomed-in 3hr loop. I put my cursor in the center of the eye 3 hours ago, move the image forward 3 hours then put my cursor in the center of the eye again. I got 49nm @ 273 deg. That's 16.3 kts.

A 1-hr motion is 13 kts at 270 deg. But it's not as accurate as a 3hr motion. Felix is going to slam head-on into Nicaragua around 14.6 to 14.7N latitude. It'll be a TD about 18 hours later.

[bigGbear]

You never know. The long west track could be a long wobble followed by a long WNW correction. I'm not saying this WILL happen, but hurricanes are notoriously tricky.

There are no such thing as long wobbles by the very definition of wobble. A wobble is a short jerk in one direction or another. A "long wobble" would simplly be a change in direction. If this storm only "clipped" Honduras it would still be a very devasting event. The worst winds would pummel the entire Honduras coast.

from what i can see now it appears right now that its going to do just that... just barely "clip" Honduras... which that wouldn't weaken felix very much until it gets to the yucatan right?

It's going to do a lot more than clip Honduras and it is not likely to go to the Yucatan

[canetracker]

It is very interesting that the tropical floater has been mimicing the stearing layer chart. If this pans out, any thoughts on weather this could landfall in Nicarauga?
Newest Stearing Chart:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=
Tropical Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Edit: Posted this before I saw the post from Wxman57.

[RL3AO]

It is very interesting that the tropical floater has been mimicing the stearing layer chart. If this pans out, any thoughts on weather this could landfall in Nicarauga?

It is forecasted to make landfall in Nicaragua, just south of the Honduras border.

[wxman57]

Let's get some perspective. I have a current satellite of Felix with 1-deg lat/lon markers. I put my cursor in the center of the eye and I measured 3 radials - 275, 282, and 290 deg. Felix hasn't moved at a direction greater than 277 deg. all day, but it's averaging between 272 and 275 deg. To "clip Honduras" it would have to move at 290 deg. from it's present location. Not very likely. To even reach as far north as the Honduras/Nicaragua border it would have to move at 282 deg. Not likely either. It's still moving at a good clip and it's almost certainly going to make landfall south of 15N.

[canetracker]

Thanks Wxman, that is what I was trying to ask. IMO, it seems to me that the most southerly solution is the most likely.

[Galvestongirl]

thanks wxman..that made things easier for me to see and understand...

[wxman57]

Thanks Wxman, that is what I was trying to ask. IMO, it seems to me that the most southerly solution is the most likely.

Reload that image, I added the point where Felix was 6 hours ago. Extrapolate that out and you'll get a good idea of landfall.

[Air Force Met]

You never know. The long west track could be a long wobble followed by a long WNW correction. I'm not saying this WILL happen, but hurricanes are notoriously tricky.

There are no such thing as long wobbles by the very definition of wobble. A wobble is a short jerk in one direction or another. A "long wobble" would simplly be a change in direction. If this storm only "clipped" Honduras it would still be a very devasting event. The worst winds would pummel the entire Honduras coast.

from what i can see now it appears right now that its going to do just that... just barely "clip" Honduras... which that wouldn't weaken felix very much until it gets to the yucatan right?

It's not going to the Yucatan. Its going to slam into Nicaragua and Honduras. It will make landfall just south of the border and probably not get out over water again until it hits the Pacific...if it survives.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is there any major citys or towns in the landfall area?

[wxman57]

It's not going to the Yucatan. Its going to slam into Nicaragua and Honduras. It will make landfall just south of the border and probably not get out over water again until it hits the Pacific...if it survives.

You taking over the "wobble patrol" now, AFM? I'm going to bed. Have to kill me a hurricane in the morning.