TC Bertha

[robbielyn]

I agree, just that people keep talking about it hitting Florida when that seems like the most unlikely scenario. I don't mind it, but it just seems much more likely that if Bertha survives and if it hits land it would be in the Mid-Atlantic region. However, as we know with the models, they could underestimate the strength of the high and then Florida would be under the gun, possibly like the UKMET. Hopefully we will have a better picture by Monday or Tuesday.[/quote]

I am one of these people that if there is a 0 chance of a close call, I won't even waste my time tracking. I am only interested in the ones that can have a us impact and yes even more if there is a fl impact since i live here. A couple of days ago I wasn't even paying too much attention because they were predicting a nw turn east of bermuda now it could very well be west of bermuda. Now that gets my attention. So while the chances are low for a fl hit they are not zero. So we all need to pay attention.

[caribepr]

Bottom line (to me at least) is: are you ready? If Bertha or Cristobal or Dolly or whatever really IS coming your way? Do you have your supplies? Do you have a plan for evacuation (if you can; we can't/don't, but many thousands in the states do), are you READY?

Because if so, you can talk, discuss, make personal forecasts, compare historical, climatological and current trends, inform and learn, etc. to the benefit of yourselves and the rest of us here. I certainly have learned a lot being on this forum, and am grateful for the awareness and knowledge of others that I don't have.

Yes, it can be a fearful thing, thinking the worst might happen...but since there is only one thing you can do about it, I hope you all have done every big and little thing to be prepared.

The one thing I haven't done is spring for a generator...again. But they are getting smaller and more reasonable every year (well, except for the gas this year!). I saw one in West Marine last week that was only a little over 200 bucks! Maybe...oh well, there is always the grill! If the tree I tie it to doesn't blow away

Ok, back to Bertha, may she go far, far north! (why do I always get handed Carl Hiassen books on hurricanes during this time of year? Well worth a read or re-read for comic relief)

[txwatcher91]

is there that much certainty and consensus that the ridge and any troughs will be oriented in such a way as to drive bertha to mid-atlantic? i have not seen any forecast product that sounds the alarm or all clear for what is a very small geographic region this far out....what if the ridge moves bertha at 285 degrees and not 295 deg? At this point, that could be huge as far as eventual strike area... i am not buying south florida as least likely scenario at this point...i would say central america is the least likely

I never said it would hit a specific region, I said that the Mid-Atlantic would be the most likely IF it hits land. Almost all of the models begin to show Bertha moving NW by around 60-65W, which would make it hard to hit Florida with an EC trough.

[robbielyn]

is there that much certainty and consensus that the ridge and any troughs will be oriented in such a way as to drive bertha to mid-atlantic? i have not seen any forecast product that sounds the alarm or all clear for what is a very small geographic region this far out....what if the ridge moves bertha at 285 degrees and not 295 deg? At this point, that could be huge as far as eventual strike area... i am not buying south florida as least likely scenario at this point...i would say central america is the least likely

I never said it would hit a specific region, I said that the Mid-Atlantic would be the most likely IF it hits land. Almost all of the models begin to show Bertha moving NW by around 60-65W, which would make it hard to hit Florida with an EC trough.

Thats the NHC's forecast and theres a high probability that they are right. That forecast is dependant on Bertha becoming a hurricane. But I like the ukmet's scenario as a weak system bringing much needed rain to ockochobee.

[jinftl]

ok, what if the ridge strengthens again at 65W and the storm turns west....and it is not north of 25N at that time...there is no way to assess that now....so to call south florida the least likely and mid-atlantic the most is really saying that the 3% chance of Cape Hatteras getting hit is so much different than the 2.8% chance Miami has, for example.

is there that much certainty and consensus that the ridge and any troughs will be oriented in such a way as to drive bertha to mid-atlantic? i have not seen any forecast product that sounds the alarm or all clear for what is a very small geographic region this far out....what if the ridge moves bertha at 285 degrees and not 295 deg? At this point, that could be huge as far as eventual strike area... i am not buying south florida as least likely scenario at this point...i would say central america is the least likely

I never said it would hit a specific region, I said that the Mid-Atlantic would be the most likely IF it hits land. Almost all of the models begin to show Bertha moving NW by around 60-65W, which would make it hard to hit Florida with an EC trough.

[CourierPR]

The renegade UKMET seems to be holding to that more westward movement of Bertha.

[txwatcher91]

Right now there are too many variables, but with an EC trough if this thing is a hurricane or near that than it will either recurve or brush NC or Bermuda. If it stays weaker than it will likely hit south of NC, although I think this is unlikely with the Tutt pulling away and warmer SST ahead and shear likely staying below 20 knots max according to the Ships model.

[Category 5]

People are fighting where over where this storm is going to hit and it's barely halfway to the Lesser Antilles. Thats sad.

[robbielyn]

The renegade UKMET seems to be holding to that more westward movement of Bertha.

Yeah and it would be nice way of waking up any snoozers out there instead of a hurricane
banging on their doorstep startling them awake.

[jinftl]

actually this is a very interesting discussion...join in! i mean you are already on the board just like the rest of us storm nuts!

People are fighting where over where this storm is going to hit and it's barely halfway to the Lesser Antilles. Thats sad.

we

[robbielyn]

People are fighting where over where this storm is going to hit and it's barely halfway to the Lesser Antilles. Thats sad.

Oh please now who's being contentious? No one is fighting. There are just a discussion of diverse opinions which make a lively discussion. It's invigorating not sad.

[txwatcher91]

People are fighting where over where this storm is going to hit and it's barely halfway to the Lesser Antilles. Thats sad.

Oh please now who's being contentious? No one is fighting. There are just a discussion of diverse opinions which make a lively discussion. It's invigorating not sad.

We are just discussing possibilities and scenarios that may play out for the EC over the coming days. Hopefully we know more by Monday.

[jinftl]

amen...this is awesome...people getting excited over storms and bouncing ideas back and forth....this is why forums like this are so great for weather enthusiasts

People are fighting where over where this storm is going to hit and it's barely halfway to the Lesser Antilles. Thats sad.

Oh please now who's being contentious? No one is fighting. There are just a discussion of diverse opinions which make a lively discussion. It's invigorating not sad.

[soonertwister]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I last posted on this topic several days ago, figuring I'd get back to it when things got a little more interesting.

More interesting is definitely the trend. Back those several days ago I cautioned that early tracks on storms that form this early south of the Cape Verde islands tend to get a generic recurve track, and that I wouldn't be at all suprised if what was then 92L went more westerly and southerly than consensus track guidance. I didn't state that in those exact words, but that's what I said.

The storm motion has shifted left from 310 to 275, and the system has sped up considerably. The high over the mid-Atlantic seems to be intensifying and growing westward. The TUTT appears to be easing, and the possibility of a North American strike has increased exponentially.

I'm not seeing what will necessarily force this storm to ride north of due west, or even drop below 270. I'm looking at the five day cone, and it's starting to get quite close to the eastern Hebert Box. Yeah, I know that's just a statistical curiousity, but it still doesn't change the fact that a very high percentage of tropical storms that strike Florida go through one of those two boxes. I don't consider the possibility of the center passing through that box as an inconceivable scenario. We'll know a lot more in 3-4 days, though.

At first it seemed that what is now Bertha would have almost certainly been a fish storm, or one that perhaps affected Bermuda at a western limit. Now we are looking at the potential of impact from the northern West Indies to the Turks and Caicos to the Bahamas or even Florida.

Maybe the chance of a Florida impact is very low, but it's certainly not getting lower as the days continue to pass and this system stubbornly stays well below 20N. Things may get more interesting before they become less so, although I would never wish for such a thing.

[Aric Dunn]

well look at this. some convection found its way over the center earlier.. probably not the case now though..

[CourierPR]

Soonertwister, did you mean to say left from 310 to 275?

[jinftl]

great points....and to put it in the perspective you did is really a fresh way to look at the risk of an area at this point being hit....is the risk to south florida lower than it was even 24 hours ago? I would say no, it is not lower.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I last posted on this topic several days ago, figuring I'd get back to it when things got a little more interesting.

More interesting is definitely the trend. Back those several days ago I cautioned that early tracks on storms that form this early south of the Cape Verde islands tend to get a generic recurve track, and that I wouldn't be at all suprised if what was then 92L went more westerly and southerly than consensus track guidance. I didn't state that in those exact words, but that's what I said.

The storm motion has shifted right from 310 to 275, and the system has sped up considerably. The high over the mid-Atlantic seems to be intensifying and growing westward. The TUTT appears to be easing, and the possibility of a North American strike has increased exponentially.

I'm not seeing what will necessarily force this storm to ride north of due west, or even drop below 270. I'm looking at the five day cone, and it's starting to get quite close to the eastern Hebert Box. Yeah, I know that's just a statistical curiousity, but it still doesn't change the fact that a very high percentage of tropical storms that strike Florida go through one of those two boxes. I don't consider the possibility of the center passing through that box as an inconceivable scenario. We'll know a lot more in 3-4 days, though.

At first it seemed that what is now Bertha would have almost certainly been a fish storm, or one that perhaps affected Bermuda at a western limit. Now we are looking at the potential of impact from the northern West Indies to the Turks and Caicos to the Bahamas or even Florida.

Maybe the chance of a Florida impact is very low, but it's certainly not getting lower as the days continue to pass and this system stubbornly stays well below 20N. Things may get more interesting before they become less so, although I would never wish for such a thing.

[Sanibel]

Ok....here's where you are wrong....warm waters DO NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL FIGHT OFF SAL AND SHEAR....that is an incorrect statement that needs to be corrected..warm water DOES NOT MEAN THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL FIGHT OFF all negative environmental factors that come against it....you of all people should know that Sanibel...in fact...the more organized a system is the more vulnerable it is to dry air intrusion, SAL, and shear.

I disagree in a friendly way.

I should have paid more attention to the GFS. This one had strength over land which is the intangible "heart" that pushes some systems past SAL and cool water negativeness while others fade. But this storm isn't really "organized" that well. It does have a good circulation but its convection is sheared and sort of limited. But the reason I disagree is because the ridge has kept it far enough south to keep it in the warm moisture coming up from its southern inflow and that translates to warmer water. Let's see what this 21mph forward speed system looks like at 45 and 50W. Curious how a western basin that hasn't spurred any systems will receive it.

[soonertwister]

Soonertwister, did you mean to say left from 310 to 275?

I did, and thank you for the correction. I've edited my post. Ironically, I'm very left-handed, and certainly know all to well the difference between left and right.

[robbielyn]

I just watched baynews9 weather forecast. the high is forecast to move westward all the way in to the eastern coast of fl. this may be what the ukmet is seeing.