ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[mutley]

[HouTXmetro]

Interesting, BAMS are usually the Southern Outliers. Maybe on to something being North of consensus.

[KWT]

Well looks like the NHC are inbetween the models, still got a huge amount of spread, looks like everywhere needs to watch closely still.

[mutley]

Well looks like the NHC are inbetween the models, still got a huge amount of spread, looks like everywhere needs to watch closely still.

Yes, this will be a nerve-racking storm for awhile yet.

[Pearl River]

HWRF Central LA coast:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf/storm_1/06/index_pcp_m_loop.shtml

[A1A]

Does anybody know what the deal is with this basketball GOM GFS run?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

HWRF has it moving over Jamaica completely. Right down the middle, then intensifying quickly after emerging.. High end at Cat3,touching cat 4 at landfall

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF Central LA coast:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf/storm_1/06/index_pcp_m_loop.shtml

Thanks for the link, but its hard to tell how strong it is, since everything on the storm is solid black

[KWT]

Yep and once again HWRF is going mental in terms of deepening this system, once again predicts sub 900mbs...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does anybody know what the deal is with this basketball GOM GFS run?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

This is last nights 6PM run

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

there is the other graphic run of the HWRF

[Sabanic]

GFDL run is already off. Is too far north. Garbage run. But it does narrow the area from Mobile to Tx/La border for a hit I think.

Maybe so, but it has been extremely consistant with Gus, and eventually when a model continues to stay in one area the NHC DOES begin to pay more attention to it. Particularly a model as well respected as the GFDL.

Another thing is that if you lived here you sure wouldn't just blow it off and consider it garbage.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 281243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 1200 080829 0000 080829 1200 080830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 58.7W 21.3N 60.6W 22.4N 62.6W 23.6N 64.4W
BAMD 20.3N 58.7W 21.0N 60.0W 22.0N 61.6W 23.0N 63.3W
BAMM 20.3N 58.7W 21.0N 60.3W 21.9N 62.1W 22.8N 63.9W
LBAR 20.3N 58.7W 21.5N 60.2W 22.8N 62.0W 24.1N 63.7W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 1200 080831 1200 080901 1200 080902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 66.3W 26.2N 69.5W 27.1N 71.3W 26.3N 73.4W
BAMD 24.0N 65.1W 25.9N 68.2W 26.9N 69.4W 26.0N 69.8W
BAMM 23.6N 65.8W 25.1N 68.8W 25.6N 70.6W 24.8N 72.0W
LBAR 25.2N 65.7W 27.1N 69.2W 27.6N 71.0W 27.0N 72.3W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS 68KTS
DSHP 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 58.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 57.3W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 56.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

wrong thread, Luis

you posted hanna's models here

[attallaman]

With a shift in the NHC track on Gustav to the west during the night is it safe to say now that my area and all points east are now in the clear or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause a shift in the NHC track back towards the east, back towards me here in Biloxi??

[Sabanic]

With a shift in the NHC track on Gustav to the west during the night is it safe to say now that my area and all points east are now in the clear or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause a shift in the NHC track back towards the east, back towards me here in Biloxi??

No, not hardly atalla. You are FAR from being in the clear!!

[attallaman]

With a shift in the NHC track on Gustav to the west during the night is it safe to say now that my area and all points east are now in the clear or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause a shift in the NHC track back towards the east, back towards me here in Biloxi??

No, not hardly atalla. You are FAR from being in the clear!!

What caused the shift in the NHC track towards the west, a ridge of high pressure building in from the east?

[Sabanic]

With a shift in the NHC track on Gustav to the west during the night is it safe to say now that my area and all points east are now in the clear or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause a shift in the NHC track back towards the east, back towards me here in Biloxi??

No, not hardly atalla. You are FAR from being in the clear!!

What caused the shift in the NHC track towards the west, a ridge of high pressure building in from the east?

An amateur's answer to your question, but most likely it was the relocation of the center/or movement SW overnight which seems to have ended. We will probably see more West-East-West-East flops for another day or two

[cycloneye]

wrong thread, Luis

you posted hanna's models here

oops,in this rush these things happen but all is fine now.

[mutley]

Here's an interesting model run:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/