ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[I-wall]

I dont see what all the fuss is about. TD 5 dissipated, remember guys?

[Wx_Warrior]

I hope this will be the highlight of the season....

I am with Iv right now, NGOM et al will be gullywashed.

[Hurricane]

Wouldn't it be CRAZY if this got back in the Gulf and strengthened into a hurricane? Danielle could still be the highlight of the season like many predicted...

[Ivanhater]

I dont see what all the fuss is about. TD 5 dissipated, remember guys?

Fuss? If by fuss, you mean discussion about what is going on and future possibilities with Ex TD 5 that is what "Talking Tropics" is all about. Maybe this is not the forum for you.

[Steve]

>>Fuss? If by fuss, you mean discussion about what is going on and future possibilities with Ex TD 5 that is what "Talking Tropics" is all about. Maybe this is not the forum for you.

I think he was being sarcastic about the way it was treated by the TPC.

[wxman57]

Been busy all day with a lot of things, one of them trying to figure out what the remnant low will do early next week. Seems like each model has a different solution, and a different solution with each model run. Hard to trust anything at this point. As weak as the LLC is now, there may not be an LLC in another 24 hours. Then all we'll have is an area of vorticity that eventually moves down near the coast (or just offshore). It would take longer for something without an LLC to develop.

GFS develops the low near the NW FL panhandle and tracks it just inland to Vermilion Bay then across the Gulf to Galveston, developing it very quickly offshore. Probably an unlikely solution. Euro is much weaker with the low. Can't get a closed isobar unless I go down to 1/2 millibar increments. But that may not be a bad solution. Canadian has been wildly swinging back and forth with its projections of where the low would go - west one run, east the next. Hard to trust that THIS run it's correct. NAM is ... the NAM. Develops most features, clueless as to where they might track.

Big picture would suggest a stronger ridge building north of the remnants, indicating a slow westward movement similar to the Euro. But does it get far enough offshore to give it a chance at redevelopment? Maybe. Something to keep an eye on, anyway.

[KWT]

Wouldn't it be CRAZY if this got back in the Gulf and strengthened into a hurricane? Danielle could still be the highlight of the season like many predicted...

I'd just say odds are amazingly slim on that happening, sure would be a turn-up though wouldn't it!

Anyway this is one of those classic tough calls that this board usually thrives from because really the difference between a TS and just a weak tropical low with lots of moisture is minimal in terms of distance difference between those two solutions.

[Ivanhater]

>>Fuss? If by fuss, you mean discussion about what is going on and future possibilities with Ex TD 5 that is what "Talking Tropics" is all about. Maybe this is not the forum for you.

I think he was being sarcastic about the way it was treated by the TPC.

Ah, hard to tell when it comes to sarcasm over the keyboard.

Wxman, what I find interesting is some of the models strengthening the vorticity and low over Southern Alabama and NW Florida before even hitting the water. Not sure what the models are doing in that case.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS shows this very well out to 54 hours. 850mb vorticity really strengthening well inland over the Alabama/Georgia line heading south the dip into the waters off the Florida panhandle

[Ivanhater]

66 hours...already has a well established low before even moving over water

[Ivanhater]

84 hours

[KWT]

Doesn't look like it makes it out to water on this run at the moment but still some very heavy rain for LA. Its going to be quite a tight call though from the looks of things!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z runs alot of times aren't as good as 12 and 0Z.

[Ivanhater]

Look like a loop from Pensacola to New Orleans on this run before getting picked up.

[KWT]

It'll be interesting to see if the 0z continues it, really there isn't much of a broad scale difference between the 12z and 18z but small differences are enough to make a large practical difference as to whether this becomes an offical system again or not.

[Steve]

>>Wxman, what I find interesting is some of the models strengthening the vorticity and low over Southern Alabama and NW Florida before even hitting the water. Not sure what the models are doing in that case.

I think JB used a nice analogy with the diet issue. If something is weak (weak being relative if you factor the 2 day rain totals) then it won't need as much to get a little stronger (or as the analogy went, light on a 1500 calorie diet vs. heavy on a 1500 calorie diet). You figure non-(fully) tropical lows intensify all the time over land during the winter, and certainly some of the upper level lows in the Southern Plains do during the springtime. You gotta figure an old frontal low with a ton of moisture to work with and relatively good structure (if not particularly deep or strong) will still be tapping into the Gulf moisture while it's on or near the coast. As of now, upper conditions early next week look a lot better than what they did last weekend when we were progging the genesis. I thought #5 was going to remain weak, but it might could get a little stronger this time if it makes it back into the Gulf.

File for the future - hopefully all the rainfall and associated draining of creeks and rivers into sounds, bays and the Gulf of Mexico will add a lot of shelf water to the NC Gulf. And while that cooling is only going to last you a few days, you never know when you might need some of that to knock a trailing system back a Category or 2.

[wxman57]

>>Wxman, what I find interesting is some of the models strengthening the vorticity and low over Southern Alabama and NW Florida before even hitting the water. Not sure what the models are doing in that case.

I think JB used a nice analogy with the diet issue. If something is weak (weak being relative if you factor the 2 day rain totals) then it won't need as much to get a little stronger (or as the analogy went, light on a 1500 calorie diet vs. heavy on a 1500 calorie diet). You figure non-(fully) tropical lows intensify all the time over land during the winter, and certainly some of the upper level lows in the Southern Plains do during the springtime. You gotta figure an old frontal low with a ton of moisture to work with and relatively good structure (if not particularly deep or strong) will still be tapping into the Gulf moisture while it's on or near the coast. As of now, upper conditions early next week look a lot better than what they did last weekend when we were progging the genesis. I thought #5 was going to remain weak, but it might could get a little stronger this time if it makes it back into the Gulf.

File for the future - hopefully all the rainfall and associated draining of creeks and rivers into sounds, bays and the Gulf of Mexico will add a lot of shelf water to the NC Gulf. And while that cooling is only going to last you a few days, you never know when you might need some of that to knock a trailing system back a Category or 2.

I saw his video. What I'm not sure about is how much of this low is left in 24 hrs. Will there be any low center to strengthen on Sunday as it's moving toward the coast?

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Wow Ivanhater one thing is for sure, thats pretty convectivly active right now if nothing else, you can see why some of the models are pretty quick in trying to redevelop it!

The sooner it gets south the higher the chances of any development.

[perk]

I dont see what all the fuss is about. TD 5 dissipated, remember guys?

Fuss? If by fuss, you mean discussion about what is going on and future possibilities with Ex TD 5 that is what "Talking Tropics" is all about. Maybe this is not the forum for you.

What he said.