ATL: IRENE - Models

[Kory]

The weakness is much smaller on this run...system may stall as the ridges are building in.

[gatorcane]

Ridge over Texas doesn't want to budge. Looking like extreme eastern Gulf and/or south FL peninsula. But with as much land as it will be crossing, it probably won't be an intense hurricane at landfall. I'm not very confident it will make hurricane strength before crossing Cuba. Doesn't look like a TD now. Too disorganized.

Both dynamic models show it bombing as it moves north towards the eastern gom and Florida. Referring to the GFS and ECMWF

But I agree, are they overdoing it?

Let's hope so

[Ivanhater]

Riding much much stronger this run over head

12z



06

[Ivanhater]

Interesting that the ridge tries to build faster this run..well see if that a trend down the road

[WeatherEmperor]

And now we wait for the 12Z Euro lol.

[Ivanhater]

This run is very close to getting trapped by the building ridge..and shows it moving very slowly over the eastern Gulf...could stall and get trapped. Well see!

[JPmia]

The 12z GFS says Everglades City landfall with 990mb.. anyone know how strong that is approximately? Cat 1/2?

[northjaxpro]

This run is very close to getting trapped by the building ridge..and shows it moving very slowly over the eastern Gulf...could stall and get trapped. Well see!

I get what you mean Ivanhater, trapped by a building ridge similar to what happened to Elena in '85 for example.

[psyclone]

This run is very close to getting trapped by the building ridge..and shows it moving very slowly over the eastern Gulf...could stall and get trapped. Well see!

look like the cyclone is over land in south florida, not over the eastern gulf...unless i'm looking at the wrong thing!

[Javlin]

The 12z GFS says Everglades City landfall with 990mb.. anyone know how strong that is approximately? Cat 1/2?

Some reason I thought 996/997 mb equals Cat1

[northjaxpro]

The 12z GFS says Everglades City landfall with 990mb.. anyone know how strong that is approximately? Cat 1/2?

It possibly could be a low end Category 1 tropical cyclone should that happen.

[maxintensity]

The 12z GFS says Everglades City landfall with 990mb.. anyone know how strong that is approximately? Cat 1/2?

Some reason I thought 996/997 mb equals Cat1

You cant translate the pressure from a global model like that. If it shows 990mb on a global it will be a significant hit and the actual pressure would be lower than 990.

[Dean4Storms]

I really fear this turn occurs further west and this runs up the eastern Gulf giving it more time over very warm SST's, all we can hope for is dry air or upper level wind shear to keep this in check.

[Ivanhater]

This run is very close to getting trapped by the building ridge..and shows it moving very slowly over the eastern Gulf...could stall and get trapped. Well see!

look like the cyclone is over land in south florida, not over the eastern gulf...unless i'm looking at the wrong thing!

Extreme eastern Gulf..right up the west coast of Florida...actually a slight west shift but that is not the point...you have to look at the upper dynamics here which is quite different than previous runs...if this is slower or weaker than that ridge would have built in right on top of it and blocked the north turn

[DeanDaDream]

This run is very close to getting trapped by the building ridge..and shows it moving very slowly over the eastern Gulf...could stall and get trapped. Well see!

I get what you mean Ivanhater, trapped by a building ridge similar to what happened to Elena in '85 for example.

I remember back then Neal Franks of Hurricane Center said.....Elena was like a piece of driftwood in a river with no place to go.

[red herring]

WESTWARD HO!

[rockyman]

12z HWRF is running...trending faster, stronger:

[fci]

Ridge over Texas doesn't want to budge. Looking like extreme eastern Gulf and/or south FL peninsula. But with as much land as it will be crossing, it probably won't be an intense hurricane at landfall. I'm not very confident it will make hurricane strength before crossing Cuba. Doesn't look like a TD now. Too disorganized.

Both dynamic models show it bombing as it moves north towards the eastern gom and Florida. Referring to the GFS and ECMWF

But I agree, are they overdoing it?

Let's hope so

I think the further east (South Florida) vs. the Eastern Gulf; the more significant the overstatement of strength is in the models.
Wxman pointed out that the strength if the storm comes to South Florida will be less.
The past several years, to the best of my recollection; the effect of the warmth of the Florida Straits and Gulf Stream around SE Fl has been much less than predicted.
Typically, it is predicted that a storm will bomb in that 100 miles or so and that has not occured most recently.
I know someone will point out an outlier but I clearly remember Emily and Ernesto (progged in discussion to be as strong as Cat 3) as prime examples.

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[SFLcane]

This run is very close to getting trapped by the building ridge..and shows it moving very slowly over the eastern Gulf...could stall and get trapped. Well see!

look like the cyclone is over land in south florida, not over the eastern gulf...unless i'm looking at the wrong thing!

It is across SFL near the Naples area. Pretty much the same as the 06z run. If this track were to come to pass it would place SFL in the dirty side of whatever comes up this way.

[Ivanhater]

Here is another picture showing the big difference in the upper air pattern on this run on the GFS compared to last run...Notice the trough flatter and faster annd much stronger ridging



12z




06z