ATL: ISAAC - Models

[fogbreath]

Just curious, and I apologize if this has been asked before - is there a model that's been super-golden with this year's hurricane season? I believe the Euro has been generally top dog but it seems to be such an outlier on Isaac

[Javlin]

We have the UKMET possibily showing a GOM system viva the Fl Straits





http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

[artist]

Just curious, and I apologize if this has been asked before - is there a model that's been super-golden with this year's hurricane season? I believe the Euro has been generally top dog but it seems to be such an outlier on Isaac

I believe the GFS since its upgrade in June has been doing pretty well.

Someone correct me if that is not correct.

[adam0983]

The GFDL Model now calls for a major hurricane to hit South Florida. I stronger storm will always turn more to the right than to the left. The Euro model calls for a weak strorm but Isaac will be in environment of zero to no shear for the next 5 days. The GFS Model on the morning run is the furthest west it has been in the past 3 days.

[Javlin]

Just curious, and I apologize if this has been asked before - is there a model that's been super-golden with this year's hurricane season? I believe the Euro has been generally top dog but it seems to be such an outlier on Isaac

GFS seems to be top dog but it's flipping it seems between 06/18z(W coast) and the 00/12z runs(E coast/spline)

[Stormlover2012]

that is always not the case, this is going to all come down to timing like with every storm feeling the trough or the weakness, I can tell you this don't discount the euro, yes the gfs has done well this yr but the euro has done pretty good this yr also, if this system slows down then it looks like high pressure will build in in the south east and it would push it west to upper texas coast or la, the game isn't over

[Portastorm]

The GFDL Model now calls for a major hurricane to hit South Florida. I stronger storm will always turn more to the right than to the left. The Euro model calls for a weak strorm but Isaac will be in environment of zero to no shear for the next 5 days. The GFS Model on the morning run is the furthest west it has been in the past 3 days.

The eventual strength of Isaac is just one of several factors which will influence his path. Strength of the high pressure ridge, the trough, how much it erodes, etc. There have been plenty of strong hurricanes in the Atlantic basin which have not moved "right" because they had a strong ridge keeping them on a consistent west-west/northwest track.

[northjaxpro]

Just curious, and I apologize if this has been asked before - is there a model that's been super-golden with this year's hurricane season? I believe the Euro has been generally top dog but it seems to be such an outlier on Isaac

I believe the GFS since its upgrade in June has been doing pretty well.

Someone correct me if that is not correct.

Since the upgrades on the GFS was completed back in May, the model has performed remarkably well. Debby is the best example which GFS shined this season.

[JPmia]

Just curious, and I apologize if this has been asked before - is there a model that's been super-golden with this year's hurricane season? I believe the Euro has been generally top dog but it seems to be such an outlier on Isaac

I believe the GFS since its upgrade in June has been doing pretty well.

Someone correct me if that is not correct.

Since the upgrades on the GFS was completed back in May, the model has performed remarkably well. Debby was being the best example which GFS shined this season.

I agree and that's what I have observed this season too.. in fact, 5am NHC advisory states that they are leaning more toward the GFS at the moment.

[x-y-no]

The GFDL Model now calls for a major hurricane to hit South Florida. I stronger storm will always turn more to the right than to the left. The Euro model calls for a weak strorm but Isaac will be in environment of zero to no shear for the next 5 days. The GFS Model on the morning run is the furthest west it has been in the past 3 days.

If you're talking about the 6z run, it doesn't hit SFL. It approaches the FL coast near Ft. Pierce and sweeps NNW just offshore all the way up to nearly Jacksonville.

Also, while there is a small patch of Cat 3 winds, remember that those are at 10 meter elevation. The surface winds would be Cat 2.

[uhvjaguars22]

This may be Euro's win if it stays weak all of the gulf coast is open from mexico to south carolina. If it gets in the gulf the high pressure may strengthen and allow it to slide west to Louisiana or texas. I dont think it will become a hurricane before it hits mountains of islands.

Just opinion

[GTStorm]

The GFDL Model now calls for a major hurricane to hit South Florida. I stronger storm will always turn more to the right than to the left. The Euro model calls for a weak strorm but Isaac will be in environment of zero to no shear for the next 5 days. The GFS Model on the morning run is the furthest west it has been in the past 3 days.

If you're talking about the 6z run, it doesn't hit SFL. It approaches the FL coast near Ft. Pierce and sweeps NNW just offshore all the way up to nearly Jacksonville.

Also, while there is a small patch of Cat 3 winds, remember that those are at 10 meter elevation. The surface winds would be Cat 2.

so does anyone think that this might be the start of a gradual run-to-run rightward shift in track? Hopefully taking Isaac out to sea?

[Bocadude85]

The GFDL Model now calls for a major hurricane to hit South Florida. I stronger storm will always turn more to the right than to the left. The Euro model calls for a weak strorm but Isaac will be in environment of zero to no shear for the next 5 days. The GFS Model on the morning run is the furthest west it has been in the past 3 days.

If you're talking about the 6z run, it doesn't hit SFL. It approaches the FL coast near Ft. Pierce and sweeps NNW just offshore all the way up to nearly Jacksonville.

Also, while there is a small patch of Cat 3 winds, remember that those are at 10 meter elevation. The surface winds would be Cat 2.

so does anyone think that this might be the start of a gradual run-to-run rightward shift in track? Hopefully taking Isaac out to sea?

Considering the GFS shifted a little to the left at 6z I doubt it.

[Stormlover2012]

if debby center doesnt relocate over night to the north then debby doesnt take that track, also if this storm hits mountains and disrupt it then the center can relocate and then who knows what happens, alot of scenarios

[x-y-no]

so does anyone think that this might be the start of a gradual run-to-run rightward shift in track? Hopefully taking Isaac out to sea?

I'm still not convinced that the GFS is cured of its tendency to break down the mid-level ridge too quickly, so I'm doubtful about that.

[Nikki]

if debby center doesnt relocate over night to the north then debby doesnt take that track, also if this storm hits mountains and disrupt it then the center can relocate and then who knows what happens, alot of scenarios

Debby?

[JPmia]

so does anyone think that this might be the start of a gradual run-to-run rightward shift in track? Hopefully taking Isaac out to sea?

I'm still not convinced that the GFS is cured of its tendency to break down the mid-level ridge too quickly, so I'm doubtful about that.

XYO so you're thinking the latest trend of the 06z GFS and the EURO might be telling us more left in the future tracks possibly?

[Bocadude85]

Anyone have a link to the latest spaghetti models.. the SWFMD site is not working for me

[tolakram]

if debby center doesnt relocate over night to the north then debby doesnt take that track, also if this storm hits mountains and disrupt it then the center can relocate and then who knows what happens, alot of scenarios

Debby?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


He is using Debby as an example of how models can be wrong when they miss a center relocation. In other words, if Debby's center did not relocate then the euro and the west track may have been correct. It's something to ponder, but in this case the Euro shows Isaac south of Hispaniola and Cuba, so it's not a relocation issue .. IMO. I don't think the GFS guessed a relocation either, it just got lucky. Again, just my uneducated opinion.

[JPmia]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif