ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Given the strongest part of the storm (NW quad) is overland and not sampled, I agree with 75 kt, perhaps even 80 kt.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Not sure how much longer I will be online but updates as given me from friends in San Pedro and Belize City - power went out about 15 mins after the ADVISORY NUMBER 7, about another 30 mins after that winds started to pick up beachside business had already taken a pounding before winds picked up but then getting reports zinc roofing flying around, piers being torn apart (dice shops are on allot of these piers) at least one business was on fie but no one could do anything about for flying debris. Belize city Freetown road has been flooded for hour knee deep in place, Queen street near Belize city river also flooded in places. Most if not all of Belize City has no Elec for at least hour now. Its been raining constant by me on Placencia Peninsula now for 2 hrs and freind on boat in lagoon says winds are SE 25kts with occasional higher gusts. Nothing compared to what Belize City Orange walk and San Pedro, Caye caulker, Turneffe cayes experiencing. Landfall is not counted when eye passes over a caye or peninsula but the damage & surge is same as when it makes landfall on mainland. My lights have been flickering on and off for while now so not sure how much longer I will be online. Big thank you to everyone on here for sharing data and insights, its always nice to have that help when something like this comes our way. And Earl has turned out to be quite a big boy!! thankfully he got all that shear last night from Honduras on South quad else things could be allot worse than they currently are which is far from good and we hope come morning no lose of life looks like surge coming ashore right now in sp just been sent video dont know how to upload it

Thanks for the updates! Stay safe! You guys are in my thoughts and prayers!

[Yellow Evan]

85 knt FL easily supports 75 knots.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Still through 11:37pm CDT. Wide view.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 11:47pm CDT.

[NotoSans]

NHC goes with 70 kt. Still a bit low IMO.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[ouragans]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/761062688889778176

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Still through 11:47pm CDT.

[Hammy]

Is it me or does this look like it's starting to stall out?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 11:57pm CDT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

BZSTORM asked me to upload and post this video from a Facebook group:

https://vid.me/WRKO

It was sent to someone in a Facebook group from the San Pedro area, though unsure where in that area.

[NotoSans]

Luckily this will make landfall very soon. Satellite imagery shows that this may be rapidly intensifying with a developing eye.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Mission has completed. That is the last recon for the storm unless it enters the Bay of Campeche, in which case recon is possible again.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 031405
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 03 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-069

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF EARL AT           
       05/1500Z NEAR 18.7N 93.8W

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved AVN image loop pf Earl:

http://imgur.com/a/GzHcZ

August 3rd, 22:15Z to August 4th 5:15Z.

From: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[JtSmarts]

VERY intense thunderstorms around the center at the moment, all that black makes it look much stronger than 70 kts.

[1900hurricane]

I'm sure this has already been stated, but it's a good thing Earl is making landfall now instead of later. That warm spot in the (very cold) CDO likely isn't an enhanced V signature this time around.

[FireRat]

Dang! This looks like a major almost, imagine if it had an extra day to develop, went from a blob to a massive hurricane in size in just a day. This is quite an impressive storm, hope folks in Belize and Central America/ Mexico are prepared for what could be a huge flood maker just judging by the size of the storm and deep moisture it will bring inland.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

1am CDT intermediate advisory:


HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
100 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...CENTER OF EARL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[TheStormExpert]

Hurricane Earl makes landfall near Belize City, Belize @ 1amCDT with winds of 80mph, and pressure of 979mb.

[tailgater]

Yes, I have always found that storms intensifying as they come ashore seem to be a lot more destructive. Earl seems to be blowing up tonite at landfall and I would be surprised if didn't remain as a tropical storm if it does actually emerge in the BOC.
1 hr ago

now