Texas Summer 2017

[Texas Snowman]

On intensity?

[Brent]

So Uh, can we all agree that we hope the 3k NAM is Waaaaaaaaaaaaay Wrong?

yeah...

[Texas Snowman]

I haven't seen the run (someone mentioned it in the Tropics section).

What is the intensity showing?

[Brent]

I haven't seen the run (someone mentioned it in the Tropics section).

What is the intensity showing?

923 mb

[Texas Snowman]

Holy smokes!

[Texas Snowman]

This is the one time that you don't want to hear about a Cat 5 in the Gulf.

I'm not buying anything like that yet, but that would be a scary situation for Corpus and the central Texas coast.

[Cpv17]

The heck with that! That would be worse than Carla. This storm looks to take a similar path as Carla took.

[JDawg512]

So here's a question. It seems like most people in the other threads are leaning towards a TX/LA landfall, isn't it too early to make that assumption? If that's the case then Austin will be on the dry side and may not see a whole lot of rain. Personally I think we need to wait till Harvey reforms but wanted to get others thoughts on this.

[Brent]

looking at the 0z models I wouldn't be surprised if it missed a lot of Texas to the south or east... the relative model agreement of earlier is gone

[Cpv17]

Back in 2004 I believe 3 days or so before landfall the models had Rita going over Matagorda and it made a right hook and hit the LA/TX border.

[Brent]

so the Euro has Harvey spending 4 days exploring the area from Corpus Christi to Beaumont and blows up into a full blown hurricane near Galveston...

okay then

[South Texas Storms]

And with tonight's 0z model runs, chances for beneficial rainfall in Austin and SA have dropped considerably.

[Cpv17]

And with tonight's 0z model runs, chances for beneficial rainfall in Austin and SA have dropped considerably.

Sucks exactly where we need the rain the most. I'm rooting for a south TX landfall and a track into San Antonio. That would be ideal for them as long as they wouldn't get too much rain, but that's not looking likely.

[Cpv17]

Wowza!

[Texas Snowman]

As the thunder rumbles, we've had 1.51 inches of rain overnight at the Austin College weather station, 14.93 inches for the month of August.

Similar amount overnight at North Texas Regional Airport.

Unreal month of rainfall continues here in Grayson County.

-----

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

TXC147-181-231130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0218.170823T0828Z-170823T1130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grayson TX-Fannin TX-
328 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...Eastern Grayson County in north central Texas...Southwestern Fannin County in north central Texas...

* Until 630 AM CDT.

* At 325 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms that were producing heavy rainfall along and east of Highway 75 in Grayson County. Excessive runoff from these thunderstorms will cause minor flooding. Areas that are low lying or usually experience poor drainage are most likely to experience flooding. This means some low water crossings in the region may become impassable. Between one and two inches of rain has fallen across the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...Sherman, Denison, Van Alstyne, Howe, Pottsboro, Leonard, Whitewright, Bells, Tom Bean, Savoy, Ector, Knollwood, Dorchester, Eisenhower State Park, southeastern Lake Texoma, Southmayd, Trenton and Luella.

An additional inch of rainfall is expected over the area. This additional rain will make minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3384 9662
3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650 3378 9643
3369 9635 3370 9632 3376 9630 3377 9627
3336 9626 3335 9639 3340 9639 3340 9671
3385 9670 3392 9667

[newtotex]

This is probably going to be a stupid question. But, why do the models not have Harvey punching very far inland? From what I remember of Hermine and Ike they came pretty far inland. Is it just the time of year?

[Portastorm]

This is probably going to be a stupid question. But, why do the models not have Harvey punching very far inland? From what I remember of Hermine and Ike they came pretty far inland. Is it just the time of year?

It's not a stupid question at all. Why? Because a developing area of higher pressure in the desert Southwest as well as high pressure to the northeast will basically put a lid on Harvey's north movement and force him to stall or drift east or south.

[Portastorm]

And with tonight's 0z model runs, chances for beneficial rainfall in Austin and SA have dropped considerably.

And with the 12z guidance, it's "game on" again for Austin and San Antonio.

[weatherdude1108]

This is probably going to be a stupid question. But, why do the models not have Harvey punching very far inland? From what I remember of Hermine and Ike they came pretty far inland. Is it just the time of year?

It's not a stupid question at all. Why? Because a developing area of higher pressure in the desert Southwest as well as high pressure to the northeast will basically put a lid on Harvey's north movement and force him to stall or drift east or south.

Yeah, I was thinking the strengthening high pressure in the desert SW had a lot to do with it, maybe along with the weakness in the TUTT low in the northwestern Gulf, enabling a path of least resistance for Harvey to follow. Just a guess though.

[Portastorm]

Per the NHC track, Austin and San Antonio would be on the dry side (west). Very disappointing. Hermine in 2010 was the last time we were on the "wet" side.